Technical Paper: The risk of disaster-induced displacement
This technical paper provides evidence-based estimates of the likelihood of disaster-induced displacement in the South Pacific island states of American Samoa, Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna. It represents a first attempt to better quantify human displacement risk. It brings together data from several sources – notably the Global Assessment Reports (GARs) of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR),
national disaster loss inventory databases (DesInventar)
and the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre’s (IDMC) Global Estimates – in order to better quantify human
displacement risk. Applying a probabilistic risk model, it is one of the first attempts to assess how many people are at risk of being displaced by natural hazard-related disasters.
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