STAT/08/119
26 August 2008

Population projections 2008-2060
From 2015, deaths projected to outnumber births in the EU27
Almost three times as many people aged 80 or more in 2060

The EU27 population is projected to increase from 495 million on 1 January 2008 to 521 million in 2035, and thereafter gradually decline to 506 million in 2060. The annual number of births is projected to fall over the period 2008-2060, while at the same time the annual number of deaths is projected to continue rising. From 2015 onwards deaths would outnumber births, and hence population growth due to natural increase would cease. From this point onwards, positive net migration would be the only population growth factor. However, from 2035 this positive net migration would no longer counterbalance the negative natural change, and the population is projected to begin to fall.

The EU27 population is also projected to continue to grow older, with the share of the population aged 65 years and over rising from 17.1% in 2008 to 30.0% in 2060, and those aged 80 and over rising from 4.4% to 12.1% over the same period.

These population projections¹ for the period 2008-2060 come from a report² issued by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Population projections are what-if scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population, and should therefore be considered with caution.

Strongest population growth in Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom

There are projected to be considerable differences between the individual Member States. Between 2008 and 2060, the population is projected to rise in thirteen Member States and fall in fourteen. The strongest population growth is projected to be found in Cyprus (+66%), Ireland (+53%), Luxembourg (+52%), the United Kingdom (+25%) and Sweden (+18%), and the sharpest declines in Bulgaria (-28%), Latvia (-26%), Lithuania (-24%), Romania (-21%) and Poland (-18%).

In 2060, the Member States with the largest populations would be the United Kingdom (77 million), France³
(72 mn), Germany (71 mn), Italy (59 mn) and Spain (52 mn).

30% of the EU27 population to be aged 65 or more in 2060

The EU27 population is projected to become older throughout the projection period, due in particular to persistently low fertility and an increasing number of survivors to higher ages. This ageing process would occur in all Member States. In 2060, the share of the population aged 65 or more is projected to range from 23.6% in Luxembourg, 24.7% in the United Kingdom and 25.0% in Denmark to 36.2% in Poland, 36.1% in Slovakia and 35.0% in Romania.

In consequence, the old age dependency ratio in the EU27, i.e. the population aged 65 years and older divided by the working age population, is projected to increase from 25% in 2008 to 53% in 2060. In other words, there would be only two persons of working age for every person aged 65 or more in 2060, compared with four persons to one today. The old age dependency ratio is projected to be more than 60% in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia, and less than 45% in Denmark, Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom.

1. The EUROPOP2008 “convergence scenario” is based on the population on 1st January 2008 and on the assumption that fertility, mortality and net migration will progressively converge between Member States in the long run. Alternative assumptions in a different conceptual framework would yield different results.
2. Eurostat, Statistics in Focus, 72/2008 "Ageing characterises the demographic perspectives of the European societies", available free of charge in pdf format on the Eurostat web site.
3. "France métropolitaine", excluding the four overseas departments (French Guyana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Réunion)

Eurostat news releases on the Internet: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Total population (000s)

Older population