STAT/04/117

23 September 2004

Second notification of deficit and debt data for 2003
Euro-zone government deficit at 2.7% of GDP and public debt at 70.7% of GDP

For the second time in 2004, the EU Member States have notified¹ to the European Commission their data on government deficit and debt² for 2003. They have been verified by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, and are consistent with Eurostat decisions, including most recently decisions on classification of pension schemes in the case of government responsibility or guarantee³, treatment of payments in the context of transfers to the government of pension obligations⁴, public-private partnerships⁵, and capital injections into public corporations⁶. This press release also includes data on government expenditure and revenue⁷.

The revised data⁸ confirm the trends observed in the notification of March 2004. The government balance of the euro-zone⁹, EU25 and EU15 moved into a higher deficit in 2003, compared to 2002. Meanwhile government debt increased in the three zones in 2003.

In the euro-zone, the government deficit increased from 2.4% of GDP in 2002 to 2.7% in 2003, and in the EU15 the deficit increased from 2.1% of GDP in 2002 to 2.7% in 2003. When the data for the new Member States are added, the government deficit of the enlarged EU (EU25) also worsened in 2003 compared with the previous year, from 2.3% to 2.8% of GDP.

In all, sixteen Member States saw a worsening of their public balance in terms of GDP in 2003. The largest government deficits relative to GDP in 2003 were recorded by the Czech Republic (-12.6%), Malta (-9.7%), Cyprus (-6.4%), Hungary (-6.2%), Greece (-4.6%), France (-4.1%), Poland (-3.9%), Germany (-3.8%), Slovakia (-3.7%), the United Kingdom (-3.3%), and the Netherlands (-3.2%). Eight countries registered government surpluses in 2003: Estonia (+3.1%), Finland (+2.3%), Luxembourg (+0.8%), Belgium (+0.4%), Spain (+0.4%), Denmark (+0.3%), Sweden (+0.3%), and Ireland (+0.1%).

Compared to the data published in the first notification of March 2004, there has been a significant upward revision in the 2003 deficit of Greece¹⁰ (from -1.7% to -4.6% of GDP). Denmark's surplus in 2003 was revised downwards (from +1.5% to +0.3%), mainly because of reclassification of a funded pension scheme outside government. (See “Additional Information”).

After the downward trend of recent years, the government debt to GDP ratio increased in the euro-zone from 69.4% in 2002 to 70.7% in 2003, in the EU15 from 62.7% to 64.3%, and in the EU25 from 61.6% to 63.3%. Nine Member States showed a ratio higher than 60% of GDP in 2003, compared to seven in 2002, as the debt of France (63.7%) and Portugal (60.3%) moved above the 60% threshold in 2003, the other countries being Greece (109.9%), Italy (106.2%), Belgium (100.7%), Malta (71.1%), Cyprus (70.9%), Austria (65.1%), and Germany (64.2%). The most significant revision, compared to the data published in the first notification of March 2004, is in the debt of Greece¹⁰ (from 102.4% of GDP to 109.9%).

In 2003, government expenditure in the euro-zone was equivalent to 49.0% of GDP, and government revenue 46.3%. The figures for the EU15 were 48.5% and 45.8% respectively, and for the EU25 48.5% and 45.7% respectively. Between 2002 and 2003 both government expenditure and government revenue increased relative to GDP in the three zones, with expenditure rising at a faster rate than revenue.

1. According to Council Regulation (EC) No 3605/93, as amended by Council Regulation (EC) No. 475/2000 and Commission Regulation (EC) No 351/2002.
2. According to the 'Maastricht Treaty' (Protocol on the excessive deficit procedure), government deficit (surplus) means the net borrowing (net lending) of the whole general government sector (central government, state government, local government and social security funds). It is calculated according to national accounts concepts (European System of Accounts, ESA95). Government debt is the consolidated gross debt of the whole general government sector outstanding at the end of the year (in nominal value). Primary surplus means the government deficit/surplus excluding interest charges (consolidated). However Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia (except 2003) and Sweden do not yet provide consolidated interest data.

• Table of euro-zone, EU15 and EU25 aggregates: the data are in euro. For those countries not belonging to the euro-zone, the rate of conversion into euro is as follows:

- for deficit / surplus and GDP data, the annual average exchange rate;

- for the stock of government debt, the end of year exchange rate.

• Table of national data: these are in national currencies, including the euro for the euro-zone countries.

1. See News Release 30/2004, 2 March 2004.
2. See News Releases 120/2003, 21 October 2003 and 26/2004, 25 February 2004.
3. See News Release 18/2004, 11 February 2004.
4. See News Release 98/2003, 21 August 2003.
5. Government expenditure and revenue are reported to Eurostat under the ESA95 transmission programme. They are the sum of non-financial transactions of the general government accounts, and include both current and capital transactions. For definitions, see Commission Regulation No. 1500/2000 of 10 July 2000.

It should be noted that, following an amendment to ESA95, the government balance (which may be calculated as the difference between total government revenue and expenditure) is not the same under ESA95 as that of the excessive deficit procedure. Regulation (EC) No 2558/2001 on the reclassification of settlements under swaps agreements and forward rate agreements implies that there are two relevant definitions of government deficit/surplus:

• The ESA95 definition of net lending /net borrowing does not include streams of interest payments resulting from swap agreements and forward rate agreements;
• For the purpose of the excessive deficit procedure, net lending /net borrowing of general government includes streams of interest payments resulting from swap and forward rate agreements.

Concerning 2003, for most Member States the difference, if any, between the two balances is minor (less than 0.1% of GDP), except in Sweden (0.24%), Denmark (0.20%), Finland (0.16%), and Austria (0.15%).

The data reported by the Czech Republic, Denmark, Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia (except 2003) and Sweden are not strictly comparable to those of the other countries, as they have reported interest on an unconsolidated basis, which results in overestimation of government revenue and expenditure. Data on government revenue and deficit figures reported by the UK have been adjusted by Eurostat for consistency of recording of UMTS licence proceeds.

1. In the first notification, the 2003 government deficit for the euro-zone, EU15, and EU25 was at 2.7%, 2.6%, and 2.7% of GDP respectively. The government debt in the euro-zone, EU15, and EU25 was at 70.4%, 64.0%, and 63.0% of GDP respectively. See News Release 38/2004, 16 March 2004. The Member States who joined the European Union on 1st May 2004 - Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia - were not at that time under legal obligation to notify their government deficit and debt data.
2. Euro-zone: Belgium, Germany, Greece (from January 2001), Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. Euro-zone data until 2000 cover the eleven Member States; with Greece's entry into the euro-zone, they cover the twelve Member States from 2001.
3. The deficit notified by Greece was later revised to -3.2% of GDP, and the debt to 103.0% of GDP. See News Release 62/2004, 7 May 2004.

Additional Information

Greece
The revision of data for the deficit between the March and September 2004 notifications was carried out on the basis of new information provided by the Greek Authorities, at the request of Eurostat, for the period 2000-2003. The change in the deficit figure is due mainly to:

- Downward revision for 2003 of estimate of tax revenues (mainly VAT) in public accounts;

- Downward revision for 2003 of payments received from EU institutions in the context of certain structural fund programmes;

- Reclassification for 2003 of a payment from the postal savings bank to government as a financial transaction;

(for these first three items see News Release 62/2004 of 7 May 2004)

- Under-recording of military expenditures between 2000 and 2003;

- Over-estimation of surplus of social security funds between 2001 and 2003;

- Under-recording of interest between 2000 and 2003.
The revision of data for the debt between the March and September 2004 notifications was carried out on the basis of new information provided by the Greek Authorities for the period 2000-2003. The change in the debt figure is due mainly to:

- Under-estimation of outstanding debt, notably in relation to bonds with capitalised interest;

- Over-estimation of consolidating assets of social security.

Classification of funded pension schemes in case of government responsibility or guarantee

On 2 March 2004 Eurostat published a decision on classification of funded pension schemes in case of government responsibility or guarantee (News Release 30/2004). As announced on that occasion, Eurostat organised bilateral discussions with several Member States on the implementation of the decision. In the context of these discussions, it has appeared that some Member States might need a transitional period to implement the decision and to avoid disruptions in the conduct of their budgetary policies. This transitional period will expire with the notification of March 2007. Therefore, all Member States will have to abide by the decision in the context of the March 2007 EDP notification at the latest. At present, Sweden and Poland have classified their defined contribution funded pension schemes inside the government sector, while in the case of Hungary, Denmark, Latvia and Lithuania this has been already classified outside government.

For further information on the methodology of statistics reported under the excessive deficit procedure, please see the Eurostat publication "ESA95 manual on government deficit and debt", second edition (2002), 240 pages, ISBN 92-894-3231-4, price 37 EUR (excluding VAT). Recent additions relating to securitisation and capital injections are available on the Eurostat website.

GDP and government finance in the EU (in national currencies)

GDP and government finance in the EU (in national currencies)

GDP and government finance in the EU (in national currencies)

GDP and government finance in the EU (in national currencies)

• The difference between revenue and expenditure may not exactly be equal to the deficit/surplus for the countries where swaps agreements and forward rate agreements have been implemented. In 2003 this mainly concerns Sweden (0.24% of GDP), Denmark (0.20%), Finland (0.16%), and Austria (0.15%).

1. For the Czech Republic and Denmark data on interest included in government expenditure and revenue are not consolidated, whereas data on interest included in deficit/surplus are consolidated.
2. For Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia (except 2003) and Sweden data on interest included in government expenditure, revenue and deficit/surplus are not consolidated.
3. The United Kingdom's reported data have been adjusted by Eurostat to record all the UMTS licence proceeds in 2000, according to Eurostat's decision (News Release 81/2000 of 14 July 2000); as a consequence of this adjustment, the UK government surplus was increased by GBP 21 932 million (2.3% of GDP) in 2000 and decreased by GBP 1 044 million (-0.1% of GDP) in 2001. The deficit in 2002 was increased by GBP 1 044 million (-0.1% of GDP), and in 2003 by GBP 1 045 million (-0.1% of