MEMO/07/493
Brussels, 22 November 2007
Towards a low carbon future: European
Strategic Energy Technology Plan
On 22 November, the European Commission will
present the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) (see IP/07/1750).
Low carbon technologies will play a vital role in reaching our energy and
climate change targets. The main goal of the SET-Plan is to accelerate the
development and implementation of these technologies. This background note sets
out the details of the SET Plan. Its rationale accompanied by some useful
background figures and charts is set out in MEMO/07/494.
Technology is vital for reaching energy and climate change
objectives
The inter-related challenges of climate change, security of energy supply and
competitiveness are multifaceted and require a coordinated response. We are
piecing together a far-reaching jigsaw of policies and measures: binding targets
for 2020 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% and ensure 20% of renewable
energy sources in the EU energy mix; a plan to reduce EU global primary energy
use by 20% by 2020; carbon pricing through the Emissions Trading Scheme and
energy taxation; a competitive Internal Energy Market; an international energy
policy.
Technology is vital in reaching all the above-mentioned objectives. We need a
dedicated policy to accelerate the development and deployment of cost-effective
low carbon technologies. To meet the 2020 targets, we need to lower the cost of
clean energy and put EU industry at the forefront of the rapidly growing low
carbon technology sector. In the longer term, if we are to meet the greater
ambition of reducing our greenhouse gas emissions by 60-80% by 2050, new
generations of technologies have to be developed through breakthrough in
research.
The transition to a low carbon economy will take decades and touch every
sector of the economy, but we cannot afford to delay action. Decisions taken
over the next 10-15 years will have profound consequences for energy security,
for climate change, for growth and jobs in Europe.
Weaknesses in energy innovation today
Since the oil price shocks in the 70s and 80s, Europe has enjoyed inexpensive
and plentiful energy supplies. The easy availability of resources, no carbon
constraints and the commercial imperatives of market forces have not only left
us dependent on fossil fuels, but have also tempered the interest for innovation
and investment in new energy technologies. In short, there is neither a natural
market appetite nor a short-term business benefit for such technologies. This
market gap between supply and demand is often referred to as the 'valley of
death' for low carbon energy technologies. Public intervention to support energy
innovation is thus both necessary and justified.
Public and private energy research budgets in the EU have declined
substantially since 1980s. This has led to an accumulated under-investment in
energy research capacities and infrastructures. If EU governments were investing
today at the same rate as in 1980, the total EU public expenditure for the
development of energy technologies would be four times the current level of
investment.
The energy innovation process, from initial conception to market penetration,
also suffers from unique structural weaknesses. It is characterised by long lead
times, often decades, to mass market due to the scale of the investments needed
and the technological and regulatory inertia inherent in existing energy
systems. New technologies are generally more expensive than those they replace
while not providing a better energy service.
Key technology challenges for the next 10 years
To achieve the 2020 targets a twin-track approach is needed. Reinforced
research has to lower costs and improve performance. Pro-active support measures
are to create business opportunities, stimulate market development and address
the non-technological barriers that discourage innovation and the market
deployment of efficient and low carbon technologies.
To achieve the 2050 vision, towards complete decarbonisation, we need to
develop a new generation of technologies through major breakthroughs. Even if
some of these technologies will have little impact by 2020, it is vital that we
reinforce efforts today to ensure that they come on-stream as early as possible.
We also have to plan for major organisational and infrastructure changes.
Key EU technology challenges for the next 10 years to meet the 2020
targets:
- Make second generation biofuels competitive alternatives to fossil fuels,
while respecting the sustainability of their production;
- Enable commercial use of technologies for CO2 capture, transport
and storage through demonstration at industrial scale, including whole system
efficiency and advanced research;
- Double the power generation capacity of the largest wind turbines, with
off-shore wind as the lead application;
- Demonstrate commercial readiness of large-scale Photovoltaic (PV) and
Concentrated Solar Power;
- Enable a single, smart European electricity grid able to accommodate the
massive integration of renewable and decentralised energy sources;
- Bring to mass market more efficient energy conversion and end-use devices
and systems, in buildings, transport and industry, such as poly-generation and
fuel cells;
- Maintain competitiveness in fission technologies, together with long-term
waste management solutions;
Key EU technology challenges for the
next 10 years to meet the 2050 vision:
- Bring the next generation of renewable energy technologies to market
competitiveness;
- Achieve a breakthrough in the cost-efficiency of energy storage
technologies;
- Develop the technologies and create the conditions to enable industry to
commercialise hydrogen fuel cell vehicles;
- Complete the preparations for the demonstration of a new generation (Gen-IV)
of fission reactors for increased sustainability;
- Complete the construction of the ITER fusion facility and ensure early
industry participation in the preparation of demonstration actions;
- Elaborate alternative visions and transition strategies towards the
development of the Trans-European energy networks and other systems necessary to
support the low carbon economy of the future;
- Achieve breakthroughs in enabling research for energy efficiency: e.g.
materials, nano-science, information and communication technologies, bio-science
and computation.
What is the Commission proposing?
The SET-Plan proposes to deliver the following results: (i) a new joint
strategic planning, (ii) a more effective implementation, (iii) an increase in
resources, and (iv) a new and reinforced approach to international
cooperation.
1) Joint strategic planning will enable a better orientation of
efforts and would be the seed to bring together our researcher and our industry.
Early 2008 the Commission will establish a Steering Group on Strategic Energy
Technologies to steer the implementation of the SET-Plan, reinforcing the
coherence between national, European and international efforts. The Group,
chaired by the Commission, will be composed of high level government
representatives from Member States.
In the first half of 2009, to review progress the Commission will organise a
European Energy Technology Summit that will bring together all stakeholders in
the entire innovation system, from industry to customers, as well as
representatives of the European institutions, the financial community and our
international partners.
To support the definition of energy technology objectives, as well as to
build consensus around the SET-Plan programme, the Commission will establish an
open-access information and knowledge management system on energy technologies.
2) For effective implementation we need more powerful
mechanisms that can leverage the potential of European industry and researchers.
In 2008 the Commission proposes to launch six new European Industrial
Initiatives that will target sectors for which working at Community level will
add most value – technologies for which the barriers, the scale of the
investment and risk involved can be better tackled collectively.
The initiatives are as follows:
- European Wind Initiative: focus on large turbines and large systems
validation and demonstration (relevant to on and off-shore applications).
- Solar Europe Initiative: focus on large-scale demonstration for
photovoltaics and concentrated solar power.
- Bio-energy Europe Initiative: focus on 'next generation' biofuels within the
context of an overall bio-energy use strategy.
- European CO2 capture, transport and storage initiative: focus on
the whole system requirements, including efficiency, safety and public
acceptance, to prove the viability of zero emission fossil fuel power plants at
industrial scale.
- European electricity grid initiative: focus on the development of the smart
electricity system, including storage, and on the creation of a European Centre
to implement a research programme for the European transmission network.
- Sustainable nuclear fission initiative: focus on the development of
Generation-IV technologies.
Several initiatives that are already
being implemented, or are well advanced in their preparation, serve as
illustrative examples: the European fusion research programme and its flagship
'ITER'; the Single European Sky air traffic management research programme
(SESAR); the proposed Joint Technology Initiative on Fuel Cells and Hydrogen;
and the proposed 'Clean Sky' Joint Technology Initiative on the environmental
impacts of aviation.
To bring about a move from today's model of collaborating on projects towards
a new paradigm of implementing programmes and to align these programmes with the
SET-Plan priorities, the Commission proposes to create a European Energy
Research Alliance.
The European Institute of Technology could provide an appropriate vehicle to
realise this ambition, through a Knowledge and Innovation Community on energy
and climate change.
The Commission proposes to initiate in 2008 an action on European energy
infrastructure networks and systems transition planning. It will contribute to
optimise and harmonise the development of low carbon integrated energy systems
across the EU and its neighbouring countries. It will help the development of
tools and models for European level foresight in areas such as smart,
bi-directional electricity grids, CO2 transport and storage and
hydrogen distribution.
3) Resources
Implementation of the SET-Plan will help overcome the fragmentation of the
European research and innovation base, leading to a better overall balance
between cooperation and competition. Encouraging more focus and coordination
between different funding schemes and sources will help to optimise investment.
Two challenges need to be addressed: mobilising additional financial
resources, for research and related infrastructures, industrial-scale
demonstration and market replication projects; and education and training to
deliver the quantity and quality of human resources required to take full
advantage of the technology opportunities that the European energy policy will
create.
At the end of 2008 the Commission intends to present a Communication on
financing low carbon technologies that will address resource needs and sources,
examining all potential avenues to leverage private investment, including
private equity and venture capital, enhance coordination between funding sources
and raise additional funds.
4) International cooperation should be a fundamental pillar in
our European strategy.
We need to take our international cooperation on energy technology to a new
dimension. The measures proposed in the SET-Plan (e.g. the Steering Group,
European Industrial Initiatives and the European Energy Research Alliance)
should bring about a reinforced international cooperation strategy. We also need
to ensure that the EU increasingly speaks with one voice in international fora,
where appropriate, to achieve a more coherent and stronger partnership
effect.
Annex 1. The advantages and disadvantages of different
sources of electrical energy
|
Energy sources
|
Technology considered for the cost estimate
|
2005 Cost (€ / MWh)
|
Projected Cost 2030 (€ / MWh with
€20-30/tCO2)
|
GHG emissions (Kg CO2eq/MWh)
|
EU-27 Import dependency
|
Efficiency
|
Fuel price sensitivity
|
Proven reserves / Annual production
|
|
Source IEA
|
2005
|
2030
|
|
Natural gas
|
Open cycle gas turbine
|
45 – 70
|
55 - 85
|
440
|
57%
|
84%
|
40%
|
Very high
|
64 years
|
|
CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine)
|
35 – 45
|
40 - 55
|
400
|
50%
|
Very high
|
|
Oil
|
Diesel engine
|
70 – 80
|
80 - 95
|
550
|
82%
|
93%
|
30%
|
Very high
|
42 years
|
|
Coal
|
PF (Pulverised Fuel with flue gas desulphurisation)
|
30 – 40
|
45 - 60
|
800
|
39%
|
59%
|
40-45%
|
medium
|
155 years
|
|
CFBC (Circulating fluidized bed combustion)
|
35 – 45
|
50 - 65
|
800
|
40-45%
|
medium
|
|
IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)
|
40 – 50
|
55 - 70
|
750
|
48%
|
medium
|
|
Nuclear
|
Light water reactor
|
40 – 45
|
40 - 45
|
15
|
Almost 100% for uranium ore
|
33%
|
Low
|
Reasonable reserves: 85 years
|
|
Biomass
|
Biomass generation plant
|
25 – 85
|
25 - 75
|
30
|
nil
|
30 - 60%
|
medium
|
R e n e w a b l e
|
|
Wind
|
On shore
|
35 – 175
|
28 - 170
|
30
|
95-98%
|
nil
|
|
35 – 110
|
28 – 80
|
|
Off shore
|
50 – 170
|
50 - 150
|
10
|
95-98%
|
|
60 – 150
|
40 – 120
|
|
Hydro
|
Large
|
25 – 95
|
25 - 90
|
20
|
95-98%
|
|
Small (<10MW)
|
45 – 90
|
40 - 80
|
5
|
95-98%
|
|
Solar
|
Photovoltaic
|
140 - 430
|
55 -260
|
100
|
/
|
Annex 2. Summary table of the Technology Map
The purpose of the Technology Map is to underpin the SET-Plan Communication.
Based on it the SET-Plan proposes actions to accelerate low carbon energy
technology development and deployment through European Industrial Initiatives.
The Technology Map provides a quantification of the potential contributions of
key technologies to: Environment - CO2 emission reductions; Security of Energy
Supply - fossil fuel savings; and Competitiveness - changes in the cost of
energy.
The following table from the Technology Map summarises for each technology:
the description of the current status and the anticipated developments;
the current and future potential share in the European energy demand; the
quantified impacts of technology penetration (Environment - Greenhouse
gas emissions; Security of supply; and Competitiveness); the barriers
to penetration in the European energy market; the needs to realise its
potential and the synergies with other technologies and sectors.
|
TECHNOLOGY AVENUE
|
DESCRIPTION
|
POTENTIAL
|
ADDITIONAL IMPACT
|
BARRIERS
|
NEEDS
|
|
1) Sector
2) Current market share
3) State of the Art
|
1) Baseline scenario
2) Potential penetration
3) Potential breakthroughs
|
Environment
|
SES
|
Competiti-veness
|
|
|
|
CO2 avoided (Mt)
|
Mitigation cost (€/t CO2)
|
Fossil fuel savings (Mtoe)
|
Additional cost of energy (%)
|
|
WIND POWER
|
1) Power generation
2) 3% of demand
~50 GWe installed capacity
3) Onshore wind: commercialised
Offshore wind: Starting deployment
|
1) 2020: 120 GWe
2030: 148 GWe
2) 2020: 120÷180 GWe
2030: 168÷300 GWe
3) Large scale testing to commercialisation, particularly for offshore
environments
|
0÷100 (2020)
2÷250 (2030)
10÷2400 (2010-2030)
|
(-5)÷0 (2020)
(-20)÷5 (2030)
(-10)÷5 (2010-2030)
|
0÷35 (2020)
1÷75 (2030)
5÷700 (2010-2030)
|
(-0.3)÷0 (2020)
(-2)÷0 (2030)
|
Inflexible grid infrastructure
Lack of large-scale testing facilities
Under-developed storage mechanisms
Disparate level of financial support
Lack of social acceptance
Lack of skilled professionals
|
Upgrading of grid infrastructures and appropriate EU regulations for grid
integration
Large-scale test facilities / RD&D for upscaling
Better coordination of financial support schemes across the EU
Specialised education programmes
Support of innovation in SMEs
|
|
Need (with increasing levels of wind) for increased use of reserves and
additional back-up capacity not taken into account in calculations
|
|
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS
|
1) Power generation
2) 0.1% of demand
3.4 GWp installed capacity
3) Small scale: commercialised
Large scale: Development
Thin films: Development
|
1) 2020: 9 GWp
2030: 16 GWp
2) 2020: 65÷125 GWp
2030: 300÷665 GWp
3) Integration of thin films in buildings
High concentration devices for large systems
|
30÷60 (2020)
140÷320 (2030)
980÷2230 (2010-2030)
|
240 (2020)
125 (2030)
160 (2010-2030)
|
9÷20 (2020)
42÷100 (2030)
300÷690 (2010-2030)
|
3÷7 (2020)
8÷17 (2030)
|
High cost of electricity
Techno-economic issues
Building integration
Lack of skilled professionals
Access to grid
Regulations and administration
|
R&D
Development of a liberalised market
Financial incentives
Framework to facilitating exports
|
|
CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER
|
1) Power generation
2) 0% of demand
< 100 MW installed and/or under construction capacity
3) Parabolic trough : commercialised
Central receiver: commercialised
Dish receiver: Demonstrated
|
1) 2020–2030: 0 GWe
2) 2020: 1.8 GWe in EU27 → 1.8 GWe with 55 TWhe imports
2030: 4.6 GWe in EU27 → 4.6 GWe with 216 TWhe imports
3) Higher temperature systems, low cost heat storage
Process scale-up > 100 MWe
Trans Mediterranean Grid infrastructure
|
5÷35 (2020)
15÷130 (2030)
145÷1035 (2010-2030)
|
15÷55 (2020)
5÷45 (2030)
10÷50 (2010-2030)
|
2÷10 (2020)
5÷40 (2030)
45÷315 (2010-2030)
|
0.2÷0.3 (2020)
0.3 (2030)
|
High cost of electricity
Lack of feed-in support in most EU country
Equity shortage for demonstrating first of a kind project
Investments in grid infrastructure
|
Expansion of feed-in tariffs for CSP in the EU
Risk sharing financing mechanisms for large scale demonstration and
commercialisation projects
R&D and Demonstration
Open EU market to CSP imports
Investment in a trans-European and trans-Mediterranean Super grid
Framework to build-up a global market
|
|
SOLAR HEATING AND COOLING
|
1) Heat generation
2) 2% of demand
13 GWth installed capacity
3) Small scale for hot water: commercialised
Combi-systems: Demonstrated
Cooling systems: Development
Medium temperature industrial systems: development
|
1) 2020: 52 GWth
2030: 135 GWth
2) 2020: 90÷320 GWth
2030: 200÷700 GWth
3) Integration in buildings
Cooling
Medium temperature systems for industrial applications
|
4÷30 (2020)
8÷65 (2030)
80÷600 (2010-2030)
|
270÷330 (2020)
80 (2030)
170÷220 (2010-2030)
|
25÷35 (2020)
50÷55 (2030)
65÷480 (2010-2030)
|
0.3÷2 (2020)
0.1÷ 1 (2030)
|
Heat storage
Lack of financial incentives
Building integration
Lack of skilled professionals
Regulations and administration
|
R&D in energy storage and materials research
Financial incentives for the deployment of the technology
|
|
HYDROPOWER GENERATION:
LARGE HPP
|
1) Power generation
2) 9% of demand
about 95 GW installed capacity (non pumped storage)
3) Large scale: commercialised
|
1) 2020: 100 GW
2030: 100 GW
2) 2020: 101÷108 GW (refurbishment from 2005 park: 25÷50%)
2030: 104÷112 GW (refurbishment achieved from 2005 park:
55÷85%)
3) Large scale refurbishment of existing facilities
Power electronics for dynamic operations (e.g. pumped hydro storage)
|
3.5÷15 (2020)
7.5÷20 (2030)
70÷270 (2010-2030)
|
25 (2020)
10÷20 (2030)
20÷25 (2010-2030)
|
1÷5 (2020)
2÷6.5 (2030)
20÷80 (2010-2030)
|
0.05÷0.2 (2020)
0.04÷0.2 (2030)
|
Lack of institutional support
Complex regulations and administration
Lack of support for R&D and Demonstration
Equity shortage for R&D development and Demonstration
Social acceptance
|
Increased R&D and Demonstration public support
Focussed and co-ordinated R&D and Demonstration programme at the EU
level
Coherent, harmonised and conducive regulation and administration frameworks
across the EU
|
|
HYDROPOWER GENERATION:
SMALL HPP
|
1) Power generation
2) 1% of demand
11 GW installed capacity
3) Small scale: commercialised
Very small scale: Development
|
1) 2020: 14.5 GW
2030: 15.5 GW
2) 2020: 14.5÷18 GW
2030: 16.5÷19 GW
3) Advanced low/very low head turbines
Power electronics
|
0.5÷7.5 (2020)
1.5÷6.5 (2030)
15÷110 (2010-2030)
|
5÷10 (2020)
5÷7 (2030)
5÷8 (2010-2030)
|
0.2÷2.5 (2020)
0.4÷2 (2030)
3.5÷35 (2010-2030)
|
~0 (2020)
~0 (2030)
|
Lack of institutional support
Complex regulations and administration
Lack of support for R&D and Demonstration
Equity shortage of SMEs for R&D development and Demonstration
Social acceptance
|
Increased R&D and Demonstration public support
Focussed and co-ordinated R&D and Demonstration programme at the EU
level
Coherent, harmonised and conducive regulation and administration frameworks
across the EU
|
|
GEOTHERMAL
|
1) Heat and power generation
2) Less than 1% of demand
3) Heat pumps commercialised
DH commercialised
Enhanced geothermal power system RD&D
|
1) 2020: 1,0 GWe
2030: 1,3 GWe
(heat not available)
2) 2020: 1÷6 GWe
2030: 1÷8 GWe
2030: 38÷42 GWth
2030: 60÷70 GWth
|
15÷35 (2020)
20÷50 (2030)
300÷700 (2010-2030)
|
0÷100 (2020)
(-10)÷80 (2030)
(-10)÷90 (2010-2030)
|
5÷12 (2020)
8÷16 (2030)
100÷200 (2010-2030)
|
0.2 (2020)
(-0.3)÷ 0.3 (2030)
|
Lack of appropriate legislation
Lack of financial incentives
Lack of clarity in administrative procedures, long permit time
Lack of skilled professionals
Lack of social acceptance
Fragmentation of existing knowledge
|
Coherent financial support mechanisms
Additional incentives
Appropriate regulations, standards, permit procedures
RD&D support
International collaboration and centralisation of existing knowledge
Vocational and training programmes
|
|
OCEAN WAVE POWER
|
1) Power generation
2) Null
3) Large scale systems : Demonstrated < 1 MW, on-going up to a few
MWs
|
1) 2020: 0,9 GWe
2030: 1,7 GWe
2) 2020: 5÷10 GWe
2030: 10÷16 GWe
3) Large scale testing to commercialisation
Off-shore grid infrastructure
|
10÷15 (2020)
15÷25 (2030)
140÷275 (2010-2030)
|
70÷150 (2020)
70÷150 (2030)
70÷150 (2010-2030)
|
2÷5 (2020)
5÷10 (2030)
40÷80 (2010-2030)
|
0.5 (2020)
0.7÷0.9 (2030)
|
Cost competitiveness of ocean electricity
High cost of technology learning
Lack of dedicated engineering capacities and of private investments
Cost of off-shore grid and unavailability of on-shore grid
Administrative and legislative
Coastal use
|
R&D and Demonstration
Coordinated approach at EU level
Long term feed-in tariff and capital investment support
Coastal management at EU level
|
|
COGENERATION OF HEAT AND POWER
|
1) Power generation / District heating / Industry
2) 10% of demand
~95 GWe installed capacity
3) Large/medium scale: commercialised
Micro-CHP, fuel cells: R&D evaluation
|
1) 2020: 160 GWe
2030: 169 GWe
2) 2020: 165÷185 GWe
2030: 195÷235 GWe
3) Large/medium scale overhaul/replacement with higher electrical and
overall efficiency
Biomass based CHP
Heat storage/cooling
|
50÷85 (2020)
50÷95 (2030)
1000÷1400 (2010-2030)
|
15÷30 (2020)
30÷70 (2030)
15÷40 (2010-2030)
|
20÷30 (2020)
20÷35 (2030)
400÷500 (2010-2030)
|
0.5÷1 (2020)
1÷3 (2030)
|
Lack of coherent policies in some MS
Market liberalisation exposes short term profitability projects
Market uncertainties about fuel and electricity prices
Many (older) installations now operate with lower efficiency and
uncompetitive costs level
Correlation of heat and electricity demand
Slow progress on micro-CHP development
|
Improved efficiency across the sectors, especially electrical
Improvements in bio-CHP technology
Innovations on thermal (heat) storage technologies and improved cooling
systems
Performance improvement (technology & economics) for heat distribution
infrastructure for DH
R&D, demonstration and financing small scale CHP (fuel cells and
micro-CHP) that lead to their mass introduction
Support transition to decentralised energy supply
|
|
ZERO EMISSION FOSSIL FUEL POWER PLANTS
|
1) Power generation
2) Null
3) Individual components commercialised in smaller scales
Overall, in advanced research and validation phase, ready to embark on
large scale demonstration
|
1) 2020: 0 GWe
2030: 0 GWe
2) 2020: 5÷30 GWe
2030: 90÷190 GWe
3) Successful large scale demonstration projects by 2015
|
20÷120 (2020)
330÷700 (2030)
1800÷4700 (2010-2030)
|
30 (2020)
16÷18 (2030)
18÷20 (2010-2030)
|
(-3)÷(-15) (2020)
(-40)÷(-90) (2030)
(-230)÷(-600) (2010-2030)
|
0.3÷2 (2020)
2÷6 (2030)
|
Technology not demonstrated at large scale
High cost of first-of-a-kind plants
Unfavourable market and regulatory conditions
Lack of supportive fiscal measures
Lack of CO2 transmission and storage infrastructure
Public acceptance
|
Research and development
Large scale demonstration projects
Development of a suitable regulatory and market framework
Development of CO2 transport and storage infrastructure
|
|
NUCLEAR FISSION POWER
|
1) Power generation (Gen-IV with heat generation)
2) 31% of demand
~135 GWe installed capacity
3) Gen-III: Mature technology.
Gen-IV: depends on concept. Basic research still required for all designs
leading to strategic decisions by 2012 at the latest. First of a kind and demo
plants (VHTR and SFR) by 2020
|
1) 2020: 114 GWe
2030: 100 GWe
2) 2020: 127÷150 GWe
2030: 127÷200 GWe
3) To maintain market share requires c. 100GWe new build over next 25 years
(Gen-III)
Development of fast reactors and fuel cycles will enable much greater
sustainability
|
55÷160 (2020)
100÷400 (2030)
1100÷3800 (2010-2030)
|
(-5) (2020)
(-10) (2030)
(-10)÷(-5) (2010-2030)
|
15÷50 (2020)
35÷125 (2030)
300÷1200 (2010-2030)
|
(-0.5)÷(-0.1) (2020)
(-2)÷(-0.5) (2030)
|
Lack of overall EU nuclear strategy
Lack of harmonised regulations and standards
Public/political acceptance
Insufficient public R&D funding for Gen-IV
Future availability of suitably qualified scientists and engineers
|
A stable and predictable regulatory / economic / political
environment.
Clear EU nuclear strategy
Increased support for RDD&D on Gen-IV; more public funding,
public-private partnerships, Joint Undertakings, etc.
Better public and stakeholder information and dialogue on nuclear
energy
Promote education and training in scientific disciplines in general and
nuclear technology in particular
|
|
No account taken of possible market insertion of VHTR (process heat)
Current annual savings by existing nuclear plants accounts for about 800 Mt
of CO2 and 250 Mtoe of fossil fuel (not included in above
figures)
|
|
NUCLEAR FUSION POWER GENERATION
|
1) Power generation
2) None
3) Committed construction of ITER as prototypic experiment aimed at
demonstrating the technological feasibility of fusion energy
|
1) N.A. before 2030
2) After 2030
3) Operation of DEMO as demonstration fusion power plant
|
N.A.
|
N.A.
|
N.A.
|
N.A.
|
Limited industrial contributions to the financial sources due to the
long-term nature
Low availability of suitable trained engineers and scientists
S&T challenges on frontier technologies
|
Strengthen the organisation of fusion development with reinforced
industrial participation, in particular within the DEMO design group
Reinforcement of education and training programmes
Strong political will for shortening the timescale of fusion development
through EU l and international resources
|
|
No CO2 or other air pollutants during operation
Huge potential fossil fuel savings with water and lithium as largely
available inexpensive fuels
Cost of energy is expected to be balanced by the outstanding improvement of
the competitiveness of European industry
|
|
ELECTRICITY NETWORKS (SMART GRIDS)
|
1) Power transmission / distribution
2) 75÷85% of generation at transmission level
7÷10% of electricity consumed lost at transmission and distribution
levels
3) Long overhead lines
Centralised network control
|
1) New generation partially constrained by network bottlenecks
2) 2020: 1% losses reduction
2030: 2.5% losses reduction
3) HVDC, FACTS,WAMS
Active network management of distributed generation systems
|
20÷30 (2020)
50÷60 (2030)
500÷600 (2010-2030)
|
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
|
5÷10 (2020)
15÷25 (2030)
150÷250 (2010-2030)
|
N.A.
N.A.
|
How to define/share reinforcement and connection cost between stakeholders
under discussion
Regulatory framework
Social oppositions
Lack of coordinated research efforts
|
EU Member States need to invest at least 400-450 b€ in transmission
and distribution infrastructures over the next three decades
Depending upon distance between new generation and a robust grid (e.g.
off-shore wind, concentrated solar power), a further 10 to 25% share of
connection costs may add to the global grid investment
Shared design for integrating new generation technologies
ICT for control and monitoring
Standard rules and guidelines
|
|
An integrated electricity grid fosters EU market competitiveness, in terms
of impact on electricity prices and support to liberalisation
The mitigation costs are not evaluated here because it is not quantifiable
which part of the investments results in losses reduction and which part in the
below listed further benefits
Key benefit of grids coordinated and integrated development is the relief
of cost-effective generation capped by bottlenecks. In this assessment it is
assumed that each generation sector can inject into a reinforced grid nearly the
maximum power
Further benefits include network investment deferral, reduction of outages,
increase in quality of supply
|
|
BIOFUELS
|
1) Transport
2) 3.9 Mt of biofuels in 2005
3) 1st generation: Commercialised
2nd generation: pilot scale demonstrated
|
1) 2020: 7.5% of transport petrol & diesel demand
2030: 9.5% of transport petrol & diesel demand
2) 2020: 10÷14% of transport petrol & diesel demand
2030: 15÷20% of transport petrol & diesel demand
3) 2nd generation large scale demonstration by 2015
|
15÷40 (2020)
45÷75 (2030)
375÷810 (2010-2030)
|
150÷160 (2020)
90 (2030)
120÷125 (2010-2030)
|
10÷25 (2020)
20÷40 (2030)
190÷450 (2010-2030)
|
1.5÷3.5 (2020)
2.0÷3.5 (2030)
|
No structural barriers
Biomass availability and sustainability (including allocation between
energy sectors and competition with non-energy sector)
|
Reinforced and focused public support for R&D at national and EU
levels
Funding mechanisms for large scale demonstration initiatives
Harmonisation of markets, regulations and policies at EU levels
|
|
HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS
|
1) Transport and Power generation
2) Null
3) Large scale hydrogen production: commercialised or under
development
Small scale H2: Demonstra-tion/Commercialised
Fuel cells: Demonstration
|
1) 2020 – 2030: 0% of passenger cars
2) 2020: 1.5% of passenger cars
2030: 6% to 12% of passenger cars
3) Low cost, reliable and durable fuel cells
High capacity hydrogen storage
Low cost and large scale carbon free/lean H2 supply
|
5 (2020)
30÷60 (2030)
185÷330 (2010-2030)
|
475 (2020)
100÷240 (2030)
145÷290 (2010-2030)
|
2.5 (2020)
10÷20 (2030)
80÷135 (2010-2030)
|
0.3 (2020)
0.7÷0.8 (2030)
|
Long term and disruptive mitigation option
Lack of end-use deployment support
Regulation and Code and Standards
High up-front infrastructure investments for hydrogen production and
supply
Shortage of equity for SMEs
High cost of fuel cells
Pending issue of primary resources allocation for hydrogen production
|
Focussed R&D and large scale Demonstration and market preparation
efforts at EU level
Long term public and private partnership
Establishment of regulatory and financial support schemes
Education
|
|
Impacts only for passenger cars
|