Crop yield forecasts for 2007

This Memorandum provides additional information, maps and graphs related to the IP/07/1159 on the forecast of cereal production. During the agricultural season, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) regularly issues forecasts for the main crop yields and produces analyses of the impact of weather conditions on crop production. These are based on advanced methodologies using satellite remote sensing and mathematical models which simulate crop growth.

The models and methodology in use have been conceived, developed and implemented within the JRC.

The crop yield forecasts, analyses and full description of the methodology are available at: http://agrifish.jrc.it/marsstat/.

[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]

Source EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update 2007-06-26
** Joint Research Centre/Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen/Agrifish unit/MARS STAT action

Technical Note:
a) Countries with areas below 10000 ha are not counted in.
b) The usable production is generally 2-3 M tons below the harvested production.

c) The average production includes the exceptional year 2004/2005 where set aside rate was set at 5% instead of the reference rate of 10%. Therefore the comparison with the five-year average may overestimate the decrease.

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[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]

Analysis of crop yield by crop type and country for the EU27

Total Wheat (soft and durum varieties)

EU 27 TOTAL WHEAT yield forecast 17.07.07
Country	Yield t/ha
Country	2006*	2007 forecasts	Average 5 years	% 2007/06	% 2007/ Average
EU27	5.08	5.2	5.0	+1.5	+2.3
AT	4.91	5.0	5.0	+2.7	+0.1
BE	8.17	9.0	8.5	+9.9	+6.0
BG	3.27	2.7	3.1	-16.2	-12.4
CZ	4.49	4.5	4.8	-0.7	-7.1
DE	7.21	7.5	7.3	+4.6	+4.0
DK	7.00	7.1	7.1	+1.1	-0.3
EE	2.42	2.4	2.5	+0.4	-2.4
ES	2.85	3.3	2.7	+15.2	+23.0
FI	3.56	3.4	3.5	-3.9	-1.7
FR	6.75	7.2	7.0	+6.2	+2.4
GR	2.26	2.1	2.1	-6.9	+1.2
HU	4.06	4.0	4.0	-2.2	+0.0
IE	8.76	9.4	8.8	+7.2	+6.7
IT	3.68	3.7	3.4	+0.0	+9.2
LT	2.36	3.2	3.5	+34.7	-8.4
LU	5.97	6.2	6.2	+3.9	+0.3
LV	2.80	2.9	3.1	+5.0	-5.2
NL	8.55	8.6	8.5	+0.7	+0.8
PL	3.24	3.6	3.8	+11.1	-4.0
PT	2.33	1.8	1.5	-24.9	+20.7
RO	2.75	2.0	2.5	-27.6	-20.1
SE	5.46	6.1	5.9	+11.4	+2.7
SI	4.19	4.8	4.4	+13.6	+9.4
SK	3.82	3.6	4.0	-5.8	-8.9
UK	8.04	8.0	7.9	-0.7	+0.8

Source EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update 2007-06-26
MARS

Note: Countries with areas below 10000 ha are not counted in

The total wheat yield is expected to be comparable to last years yield with a slight increase of 1.5 %. The resulting EU production is forecasted to be around 132 Mt which would be an increase of almost 6 Mt compared to last year.
Compared to the yield average of the last five years (2002 – 2006) an increase of 2.3 % is estimated and in terms of production an increase of 1.2 % for EU 27 resulting in forecasted 132 Mt of total Wheat production
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
Durum wheat yields are to be expected higher (>4 %) compared to the 5 year average for Spain, France and Italy. A comparable yield is forecasted for Greece and a yield reduction (-7.2 %) for Austria. This picture changes when we look at the comparison with the previous year. Only for France a higher yield (+ 8.4 %) of 5,0 t/ha is forecasted, whereas Bulgaria (3.9 t/ha) and Austria (4.0 t/ha) show clear decreases in yield expectations.
Concerning the soft wheat a yield reduction of more than 10% (both previous year and 5-years average) is forecasted for Bulgaria (2.72 t/ha), Greece (2.55 t/ha) and Romania (1.99 t/ha). For Bulgaria and Romania, both experiencing a very dry and hot period starting from May onwards also the production is estimated to be considerably lower.
A clear increase in yield and production (both previous year and 5-years average) for soft wheat is expected for Spain (+ 18.7 % compared to 2006), Slovenia and Ireland. The remaining countries, e.g. Germany, France experience normal to good yield expectations.

Analysis of crop yield by crop type and country for the EU27

Total Barley (winter and spring varieties)

EU 27 TOTAL BARLEY yield forecast 17.07.07
Country	Yield t/ha
Country	2006*	2007 forecasts	Average 5 years	% 2007/06	% 2007/ Average
EU27	4.08	4.31	4.2	+5.7	+3.4
AT	4.43	4.45	4.5	+0.5	-2.0
BE	7.50	7.62	7.4	+1.6	+3.0
BG	2.94	2.40	2.8	-18.4	-14.6
CZ	3.59	3.73	4.0	+3.9	-7.7
DE	5.91	6.07	5.8	+2.7	+4.5
DK	4.82	5.06	5.1	+5.0	-1.4
EE	2.13	2.37	2.2	+11.3	+9.2
ES	2.57	3.29	2.6	+28.0	+28.0
FI	3.49	3.32	3.3	-4.9	+0.0
FR	6.23	6.44	6.3	+3.4	+1.7
GR	2.50	2.29	2.3	-8.4	+1.3
HU	3.68	3.18	3.4	-13.6	-5.9
IE	6.50	6.55	6.4	+0.8	+2.3
IT	3.88	3.60	3.7	-7.2	-1.4
LT	1.94	2.48	2.6	+27.8	-3.9
LV	2.02	2.01	2.1	-0.5	-4.3
NL	5.98	6.18	6.0	+3.3	+3.0
PL	2.59	2.82	3.1	+8.9	-7.8
PT	2.11	1.63	1.5	-22.7	+9.4
RO	2.33	1.85	2.3	-20.6	-19.9
SE	3.60	4.40	4.2	+22.2	+6.0
SI	3.62	3.74	3.7	+3.3	+2.5
SK	3.47	3.48	3.6	+0.3	-2.0
UK	5.94	5.88	5.8	-1.0	+1.0

* Source EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update 2007-06-26
Note: Countries with areas below 10000 ha are not counted in

For EU 27 the yield is expected to be higher by 3.4 % reaching 4.31 t/ha and the forecasted production is 59.7 Mt corresponding to an increase of 6.8 % compared to the last year and 3.5 % compared to the 5 years average.
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]

The main country contributing to the overall positive yield expectations is Spain, the third largest (beside Germany and France) barley producer. In contrast to last year Spain experienced a favourable season:
a yield increase (both previous year and 5 years average) of 28 % to 3.29 t/ha is forecasted. This results as well (with a production area more or less stable) in a production increase of 27.2 % (compared to last year) summing up to 10.6 Mt.
The yield forecast for Germany, as the biggest barley producer, expects an increase of 4.5 % compared to the average of the last five years. The production is expected to be 0.6 Mt higher than the 5 years average.
Despite the overall positive picture for a belt of countries from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea area barley regions have lower yield expectations compared to last year and the five years average. Namely for Romania and Bulgaria yield expectations are lowered significantly by the forecasts. Bulgaria is now forecasted to have yield of 2.4 t/ha compared to 2.94 t/ha in 2006 and Romania to have a yield of 1.85 t/ha compared to 2.33 t/ha in 2006.

Analysis of crop yield by crop type and country for the EU27

Grain Maize

EU 27 GRAIN MAIZE yield forecast 17.07.2007
	Yield t/ha
	2006*	2007 forecasts	Average 5 years	% 2007/06	% 2007/ Average
EU27	6.54	6.42	6.5	-1.9	-0.8
AT	9.24	10.16	9.4	+10.0	+8.4
BE	10.19	11.86	11.2	+16.4	+6.3
BG	4.53	2.67	4.5	-41.1	-40.4
CZ	6.75	7.43	6.9	+10.1	+8.2
DE	8.03	9.06	8.6	+12.8	+5.1
ES	9.79	10.96	9.7	+12.0	+13.2
FR	8.55	8.91	8.4	+4.2	+5.9
GR	9.00	8.68	8.9	-3.6	-2.5
HU	6.87	5.68	6.1	-17.3	-6.7
IT	8.73	9.52	8.9	+9.0	+6.7
NL	17.86	13.09	13.4	-26.7	-2.1
PL	4.16	5.79	5.4	+39.2	+7.0
PT	5.37	6.33	5.4	+17.9	+17.0
RO	3.62	2.98	3.6	-17.7	-17.7
SI	6.93	7.96	7.3	+14.9	+9.8
SK	5.47	5.87	5.6	+7.3	+5.4

* Source EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update 2007-06-26
Note: Countries with areas below 10000 ha are not counted in

The grain maize yield for EU 27 is estimated at 6.42 t/ha. This is a slight decrease of 0.8 % compared to the five years average. In terms of productions 55 Mt are forecasted. This is a decrease of 8.9 % compared to the five year average.

For the two largest producers France and Italy yield forecasts shows a clear increase with 8.91 t/ha for France (compared to 8.55 in 2006) and with 9.52 t/ha for Italy compared to 8.73 in 2006. Due to area reduction the production is stable compared to last year. France is expected to produce 12.8 Mt and Italy is expected to produce 9.75 Mt.

[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]

Romania and Hungary as the other two main producers of grain maize face difficulties due to the hot and dry season. For Hungary yield expectations are lowered by 17.3 % compared to the last year and the production loss is estimated to 15.2 % compared to the last year but only to 1.5 % compared to the five years average. Production is forecasted to reach 7.1 Mt.

With an overall production of 7.5 Mt Romania is supposed to harvest 1.35 Mt less of grain maize compared to 2006. The yield forecast is reduced by 17.7 % (both previous year and long term average) to 2.98 t/ha. The third country experiencing a low grain maize yield is Bulgaria. The forecasted yield drops from 4.53 t/ha in 2006 to 2.7 t/ha in 2007 (reduction of more than 40 %).

Analysis of crop yield by crop type and country for the EU27

Sunflower and sugar beet, rapeseed and potatoes

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[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]

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Analysis of crop yield by crop type and country for the EU27

Rice

As a whole the rice production is expected to be higher than average; low risk of diseases (blast) and of risk of flowering sterility effect are detected.
So far good prospectives are set for Italy, France and Greece while below average for Spain and Portugal.

Analysis of pastures and forage crops for the EU27

Most of the grassland and forage production area of EU27 benefited from the mild and wet weather during winter which caused an anticipation of the first cut. Since early June, in Central and Northern areas the re-growth was generally favoured by abundant precipitation and hot temperatures.

As a whole the overall cumulated levels of biomass appears above average with some exception like pasture areas in Romania affected by dry conditions.