MEMO/08/537
Brussels, 7 August 2008
Crop yield forecasts for 2008
This Memorandum provides additional information, maps and graphs related to the IP/08/1251 on the forecast of crops production. During the agricultural season, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) regularly issues forecasts for the main crop yields and produces analyses of the impact of weather conditions on crop production. These are based on methodologies using satellite remote sensing and mathematical models which simulate crop growth.
The models and methodology in use have been conceived, experimentally
developed and operationally implemented within the JRC. The crop yield
forecasts, analyses and full description of the methodology are available at: http://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/marsstat/
and http://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/marsstat/Bulletins/2008.htm
Latest issues are the European forecast
update and the Climatic Update as of
5th of August
EU 27 Total yield forecasts – 5th August 2008
|
CROPS
|
Yield in tons per hectare
|
||||
|
2007
|
JRC 2008 forecast
|
Average 5 years
|
% 2008/07
|
% 2008/ Average
|
|
|
TOTAL CEREALS
|
4.53
|
5.03
|
4.71
|
+11.1
|
+6.7
|
|
Soft wheat
|
5.10
|
5.65
|
5.39
|
+10.8
|
+4.8
|
|
Durum wheat
|
2.84
|
3.09
|
2.74
|
+9.0
|
+12.8
|
|
Total wheat
|
4.84
|
5.35
|
5.04
|
+10.4
|
+6.1
|
|
Spring barley
|
3.83
|
3.89
|
3.70
|
+1.5
|
+5.1
|
|
Winter barley
|
4.81
|
5.27
|
4.96
|
+9.7
|
+6.3
|
|
Total barley
|
4.21
|
4.42
|
4.19
|
+5.0
|
+5.7
|
|
Grain maize
|
5.77
|
6.93
|
6.33
|
+20.1
|
+9.5
|
|
Other cereals (1)
|
3.18
|
3.47
|
3.16
|
+9.3
|
+6.6
|
|
Rape seed
|
2.80
|
2.94
|
3.00
|
+4.8
|
-2.1
|
|
Sunflower
|
1.46
|
1.65
|
1.62
|
+13.1
|
+1.7
|
|
Potato
|
28.40
|
26.52
|
26.81
|
-6.6
|
-1.1
|
|
Sugar beet
|
62.97
|
70.26
|
59.02
|
+11.6
|
+19.0
|
- Yield figures are rounded to 100 kg
- Rice is not included
- (1) Sorghum, rye, maslin, oats, triticale, mixed grain other than maslin, millet, buckwheat
- Source EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update2008-22-07
- ** Joint Research Centre/Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen/Agriculture Unit/ AGRI4CAST action
Technical Note:
a)
Countries with areas below 10000 ha are not counted in.
b) The usable
production is generally 2-3 M tons below the harvested production.
c) The
average production includes the exceptional year 2004/2005 where set aside rate
was set at 5% instead of the reference rate of 10%. Therefore the comparison
with the five-year average may overestimate the decrease.
d) in 2007/08 the
set aside rate was set to 0 %
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and
WORD PROCESSED ]
The NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) is
calculated from Remote Sensing Imagery using the red and near-red information,
in this case SPOT-VGT. The NDVI expresses the development and health of
vegetation. The higher the values the more biomass is present. In the map, NDVI
values have been cumulated over the time period where the main crops in Europe
start their growing season until the last available date. The cumulated values
can be directly linked to the vegetation biomass. Thus higher cumulated values
indicate a good vegetation growth and health. Furthermore, the cumulated values
of the current growing season have been compared to the ones of each available
year in the time series.
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
Analysis of crop yield by crop type and country for the EU27
Total Wheat (soft and durum varieties)
|
EU 27 TOTAL WHEAT forecast 5th of August 2008
|
|||||
|
Country
|
Yield t/ha
|
||||
|
2007*
|
MARS 2008 forecasts
|
Avg 5yrs
|
%08/07
|
%08/5yrs
|
|
|
EU27
|
4.8
|
5.4
|
5.0
|
+10.4
|
+6.1
|
|
AT
|
4.8
|
5.1
|
5.0
|
+5.8
|
+1.0
|
|
BE
|
7.8
|
8.6
|
8.4
|
+10.2
|
+2.9
|
|
BG
|
2.2
|
3.4
|
3.0
|
+55.8
|
+15.8
|
|
CZ
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
+1.3
|
+1.3
|
|
DE
|
7.0
|
7.3
|
7.3
|
+5.2
|
+0.9
|
|
DK
|
6.6
|
6.9
|
7.0
|
+5.1
|
-1.5
|
|
EE
|
3.3
|
3.4
|
2.7
|
+2.1
|
+24.8
|
|
ES
|
3.5
|
3.2
|
2.8
|
-7.8
|
+14.3
|
|
FI
|
3.9
|
3.8
|
3.6
|
-2.6
|
+5.9
|
|
FR
|
6.2
|
7.2
|
6.8
|
+16.3
|
+7.1
|
|
GR
|
2.2
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
+4.7
|
+8.7
|
|
HU
|
3.6
|
4.4
|
4.0
|
+21.3
|
+9.5
|
|
IE
|
8.1
|
9.2
|
8.8
|
+13.7
|
+4.7
|
|
IT
|
3.4
|
3.8
|
3.4
|
+10.6
|
+9.8
|
|
LT
|
3.9
|
3.8
|
3.5
|
-3.8
|
+7.0
|
|
LU
|
5.6
|
6.3
|
6.1
|
+11.8
|
+2.4
|
|
LV
|
3.6
|
3.5
|
3.1
|
-2.6
|
+11.3
|
|
NL
|
7.2
|
8.3
|
8.4
|
+14.8
|
-1.4
|
|
PL
|
3.9
|
3.8
|
3.8
|
-3.1
|
+0.9
|
|
PT
|
2.2
|
2.1
|
1.6
|
-5.6
|
+27.6
|
|
RO
|
1.6
|
2.8
|
2.4
|
+75.6
|
+14.3
|
|
SE
|
6.3
|
6.3
|
5.9
|
+0.8
|
+6.6
|
|
SI
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
4.2
|
+6.0
|
+4.8
|
|
SK
|
3.8
|
3.9
|
4.0
|
+2.5
|
-0.5
|
|
UK
|
7.4
|
8.0
|
7.8
|
+8.3
|
+2.3
|
* Source EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update 2008-07-22, DG AGRI
Balance sheet: last update 2008-08-01
Note: Countries with areas below 10000
ha are not counted in
The total wheat yield is expected to be
better than last year with a significant increase of 10.4%. The resulting EU
production is expected to be around 141 million tonnes (Mt) which would be an
increase of more than 20.9 Mt (+17.4%) from last year.
Compared to the
yield average of the last five years (2003 to 2007) an increase of 6.1 % is
estimated
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED
]
and in terms of production an increase of 10.2 % for EU 27
.
Durum wheat yields are expected to be higher than the past 5
years' average for the four major producers: Italy (+12.2%), France (+6.3%),
Spain (+11.7%) and Greece (+4.3%). When looking at the comparison with
2007: Italy (3.1t/ha) and France (4.9t/ha) show higher figures (+15.0% and
+13.9%) but Greece (2.1t/ha) and Spain (2.5t/ha) are very similar to last year
yield (+0.3% and -0.7%).
For soft wheat only three countries are
foreseen with lower figures than average for Denmark (-1.5%), Slovakia
(-0.5%) and The Netherlands (-1.4%). Romania, Bulgaria and Baltic countries are
forecasted with more than 10% higher yield than average, this difference is even
much higher for Estonia and Portugal (> +24%).
By comparison with
2007 only Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have lower expectations than last
year (around -3%) due to unfavourable dry conditions. Spain and Portugal have
lower forecasts for 2008 compared to the exceptional 2007 yield (-8.7% and
-5.6%). On the other hand, yields for the three main EU producers, whose 2007
harvests were not good, show improvements: France with 7.45t/ha (+16.2%),
Germany with 7.33t/ha (+5.2%) and the UKwith 7.96t/ha (+8.3%).
Analysis of crop yield by crop type and country for the EU27
Total Barley (winter and spring varieties)
|
EU 27 TOTAL BARLEY yield forecast 5th of August 2008
|
|||||
|
Country
|
Yield t/ha
|
||||
|
2007*
|
MARS 2008 forecasts
|
Avg 5yrs
|
%08/07
|
%08/5yrs
|
|
|
EU27
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
4.2
|
5.0
|
5.7
|
|
AT
|
4.2
|
4.7
|
4.5
|
11.9
|
3.9
|
|
BE
|
8.0
|
8.2
|
7.8
|
2.7
|
4.9
|
|
BG
|
2.3
|
3.3
|
2.7
|
46.4
|
23.7
|
|
CZ
|
3.8
|
4.2
|
4.1
|
11.1
|
4.2
|
|
DE
|
5.4
|
5.9
|
5.8
|
8.4
|
1.6
|
|
DK
|
4.9
|
4.7
|
5.1
|
-4.0
|
-7.8
|
|
EE
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
2.3
|
-0.9
|
13.2
|
|
ES
|
3.6
|
3.4
|
2.7
|
-6.0
|
23.5
|
|
FI
|
3.7
|
3.3
|
3.4
|
-10.3
|
-1.9
|
|
FR
|
5.6
|
6.5
|
6.1
|
17.4
|
6.7
|
|
GR
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
1.3
|
0.8
|
|
HU
|
3.2
|
3.7
|
3.5
|
15.2
|
7.1
|
|
IE
|
6.7
|
7.0
|
6.7
|
3.2
|
3.7
|
|
IT
|
3.5
|
4.0
|
3.7
|
13.4
|
9.6
|
|
LT
|
2.7
|
2.4
|
2.6
|
-10.4
|
-9.8
|
|
LV
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
0.3
|
8.7
|
|
NL
|
5.6
|
6.1
|
6.0
|
9.6
|
1.5
|
|
PL
|
3.2
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
-4.5
|
0.9
|
|
PT
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
1.6
|
7.2
|
27.8
|
|
RO
|
1.5
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
67.0
|
10.3
|
|
SE
|
4.5
|
4.3
|
4.2
|
-3.2
|
3.5
|
|
SI
|
3.7
|
4.1
|
3.6
|
11.7
|
13.5
|
|
SK
|
3.1
|
3.7
|
3.5
|
17.0
|
6.1
|
|
UK
|
5.8
|
6.1
|
5.9
|
4.8
|
3.7
|
* Source EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update 2008-07-22, DG AGRI
Balance sheet: last update 2008-08-01
Note: Countries with areas below 10000
ha are not counted in
For EU 27 the yield is expected to be higher
than last year by 5.0%, reaching 4.4 t/ha. The forecasted production is 63.4 Mt,
which corresponds to [ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED
]an increase of 10.3% from last year and 10.5% more than the 5 years
average.
Within the four main producing countries, Spain is still
contributing the most to the overall positive yield expectations for the last 5
years average with a yield increase of 23.5% (3.4t/ha). Despite the good
potential it is still lower than the exceptional 2007 (-6%). Production is
summing up to 11.8 Mt.
Germany, as the second barley producer in 2008
expects a yield increase of +1.6% on the average of the last five years and
+8.4% to 2007. Production is expected to be 10.9% higher than last year
(11.5Mt).
France and United Kingdom are expected to reach much better
yield than last disappointing 2007 harvest with respectively 6.5t/ha (+17.4%)
and 6.1t/ha (+4.8%). Production has also made progress with +21.7% and +18.7%
respectively compared to last year. Romania and Bulgaria are foreseen with much
better figures than last 2007 season. They are forecasted with 2.4t/ha (+67%)
and 3.3t/ha (+46%) respectively.
Analysis of crop yield by crop type and country for the EU27
Grain Maize
|
EU 27 GRAIN MAIZE yield forecast 5th of August 2008
|
|||||
|
Country
|
Yield t/ha
|
||||
|
2007*
|
MARS 2008 forecasts
|
Avg 5yrs
|
%08/07
|
%08/5yrs
|
|
|
EU27
|
5.8
|
6.9
|
6.3
|
+20.1
|
+9.5
|
|
AT
|
9.9
|
9.8
|
9.4
|
-1.8
|
+3.5
|
|
BE
|
12.0
|
12.0
|
11.3
|
+0.2
|
+6.2
|
|
BG
|
1.5
|
4.3
|
3.9
|
+193.1
|
+8.9
|
|
CZ
|
6.8
|
6.9
|
6.5
|
+1.1
|
+6.0
|
|
DE
|
9.5
|
9.3
|
8.6
|
-1.8
|
+7.5
|
|
ES
|
9.9
|
9.9
|
9.76
|
-0.6
|
+1.0
|
|
FR
|
9.4
|
9.2
|
8.5
|
-2.7
|
+8.2
|
|
GR
|
8.9
|
8.7
|
8.94
|
-2.0
|
-2.5
|
|
HU
|
3.6
|
7.0
|
5.8
|
+94.5
|
+21.0
|
|
IT
|
9.3
|
9.6
|
8.9
|
+3.4
|
+8.4
|
|
NL
|
11.9
|
12.4
|
11.4
|
+4.2
|
+9.4
|
|
PL
|
6.6
|
5.6
|
5.5
|
-14.5
|
+2.5
|
|
PT
|
5.5
|
5.8
|
5.3
|
+3.8
|
+8.3
|
|
RO
|
1.6
|
3.5
|
3.3
|
+122.9
|
+3.4
|
|
SI
|
7.5
|
8.1
|
7.1
|
+8.0
|
+14.3
|
|
SK
|
4.0
|
5.8
|
5.3
|
+46.2
|
+9.9
|
* Source EUROSTAT New
Cronos and EES: last update 2008-07-22, DG AGRI Balance sheet: last update
2008-08-01
Note: Countries with areas below 10000 ha are not counted
in
The grain maize yield for EU 27 is estimated at 6.9 t/ha. This
is a significant increase of 9.5% compared to the five years average. In terms
of productions 60 Mt are forecasted. This is an increase of 4% on the five year
average.
For the two largest producers France and Italy yield forecasts
show a clear increase compared to the five year average with 9.2 t/ha for France
(compared to 8.5 t/ha) and with 9.6 t/ha for Italy (compared to 8.9 t/ha). For
both countries we do see a slight increase in area compared to last year but
below the 5 year average. This leads to a forecasted increase in production for
Italy of 7.3% and for France of 2.3% compared to last year.
[ Figures and
graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]France is expected to produce 14.4
Mt and Italy is expected to produce 10.5 Mt.
Romania and Hungary as the
other two main producers of grain maize experience a good season after the
drought in 2007. For Hungary yield expectations are raised by 21 % compared to
the five years average and almost doubled compared to last year. The production
is estimated at 8.4 Mt.
Production for Romania is forecasted to have more
than doubled in 2008 compared to 2007 with a production of 8.7 Mt. The yield
forecast is set to 3.5 corresponding to an increase of 3.4 % on the five years
average and 123% on last year's yield.
The remaining countries with the
exception of Greece are above the five years
average.
Analysis of crop yield by crop type and country for the EU27
Sunflower and sugar beet, rapeseed and potatoes
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
[ Figures
and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
[ Figures and graphics
available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
[ Figures and graphics available in
PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
Analysis of crop yield by crop type and country for the EU27
Rice
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
At EU27
level, an average season is expected: yields are forecasted to be slightly lower
than the average (-0.2%) although higher than those of last year
(+0.3%).
Among the main producers, forecasts are lower than last year in
Spain (7.16 t/ha, -0.9%) and Portugal (5.91 t/ha, -3.0%).
Good potential is
shown in Greece, whose yield (8.12 t/ha) is forecasted to be higher both than
2007 and than the average (respectively +4.0% and +4.9%).
A good season is
also expected for the eastern countries: 3.81 t/ha for Hungary (+4.2% compared
to the last year), 3.62 t/ha for Romania (+3.8%), and 4.91 t/ha for Bulgaria
(+5.9%). The latter could have experienced problems during pollens development
because of a sudden drop in temperatures.
Favourable conditions for blast
disease development have been verified in north eastern Italy.
Analysis of pastures and forage crops for the EU27
The winter was moderately warm with higher than average precipitation
over most of the grazing and forage production areas. These conditions supported
the development of green biomass and set the conditions for an early first cut.
However, the dry period that followed reduced dry matter production over most of
northern Europe, Great Britain and Ireland as well as on the Atlantic costal
regions of northern France.
In these areas, a delay in the second cut is
expected. Overall conditions were more positive in the forage producing areas of
central France as well as in the Mediterranean Basin as a whole. In these areas
a regularly timed second cut, as well as a regular continuation of the grazing
season is expected.
