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Januar 2013: Wirtschaftliche Einschätzung in EU und Euroraum zieht an

Commission Européenne - IP/13/70   30/01/2013

Autres langues disponibles: FR EN

Europäische Kommission

Pressemitteilung

Brüssel, 30. Januar 2013

Januar 2013: Wirtschaftliche Einschätzung in EU und Euroraum zieht an

Im Januar ist der Indikator der wirtschaftlichen Einschätzung (ESI) sowohl in der EU als auch im Euroraum um 1,4 auf 90,6 bzw. 89,2 Punkte gestiegen.1 In der EU zeigten sich Dienstleistungssektor, Bauwirtschaft, Einzelhandel und Verbraucher zuversichtlicher, während das Vertrauen in der Industrie leicht zurückging. Im Euroraum legten Bauwirtschaft, Dienstleistungssektor und Verbraucher größere Zuversicht an den Tag, während das Vertrauen in Industrie und Einzelhandel weitgehend unverändert blieb. In beiden Gebietsabgrenzungen ist der ESI damit den dritten Monat in Folge gestiegen, liegt jedoch weiterhin deutlich unter seinem langfristigen Durchschnitt. Von den sieben größten EU-Mitgliedstaaten verzeichneten Deutschland (+2,5), die Niederlande (+1,0), Spanien (+0,5) und das Vereinigte Königreich (+0,5) einen Anstieg des ESI. In Italien blieb der ESI unverändert und in Frankreich (-0,3) weitgehend stabil, während er sich in Polen verschlechterte (-1,3).

Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.)

January EU: 90.6 - Euro Area: 89.2

Confidence in industry deteriorated slightly in the EU (-0.5) and remained broadly stable in the euro area (+0.3). The benign development in the euro area is due to more positive assessments of stocks of finished products and better production expectations, while the assessment of the current level of overall order books deteriorated. In the EU, the decline in confidence was driven by more negative assessments of stocks of finished products and current levels of overall order books, while production expectations remained unchanged. In both areas, the current level of export order books was assessed markedly more negatively. Managers' assessment of their companies' past production improved slightly in the euro area and remained unchanged in the EU.

Confidence in services increased (markedly) in the EU (+3.7) and the euro area (+1.0), fuelled by higher demand expectations and a better assessment of the past business situation. Managers' views on past demand improved in the EU and remained broadly stable in the euro area. Confidence in retail trade increased in the EU (+0.8) and remained broadly unchanged in the euro area (+0.3). In the EU, business expectations improved and the volume of stocks was seen more positively while the perceived present business situation remained broadly stable. In the euro area, the strong increase in the expected business situation more than offset the more negative assessments of the current volume of stocks and present business situation. Confidence in the construction sector improved markedly in both the EU (+3.9) and the euro area (+4.6). In both areas, the increase was driven by both components of the confidence indicator, i.e. order books and employment expectations.

Employment prospects were assessed less pessimistically across all sectors in both regions. However, for industry and services in the euro area, improvements were minor. Selling price expectations decreased in both regions and across sectors except for EU retailers, who envisaged price increases.

Consumer confidence increased in both the EU (+2.0) and the euro area (+2.4). These developments are underpinned by all components. In both regions, pessimism about the future general economic situation and unemployment trends eased significantly and respondents' expectations about their households' financial situation and their savings over the next 12 months improved.

Confidence in financial services, which is not included in the ESI, increased in both the EU (+1.0) and the euro area (+2.6). The increases were driven mainly by improved assessments of past demand and significantly better demand expectations. Managers' assessment of the past business situation improved in the euro area and deteriorated in the EU.

In the quarterly survey of the manufacturing industry, carried out in January, industrial managers in the EU and the euro area reported no changes in the number of months of production assured by orders on hand compared with the previous survey carried out in October. However, their assessment of new orders was much more positive and export volume expectations were significantly higher. Managers' appraisal of their competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU improved in the EU but deteriorated in the euro area. The balance of managers reporting more than sufficient, rather than insufficient, production capacity decreased. Accordingly, capacity utilisation improved slightly, to 77.6% in the EU and 77.2% in the euro area.

Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)

January EU: -13.1 - Euro Area: -13.9

Service confidence indicator (s.a.)

January EU: -7.6 - Euro Area: -8.8

Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)

January EU: -21.9 - Euro Area: -23.9

Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)

January EU: -9.5 - Euro Area: -15.6

Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)

January EU: -30.0 - Euro Area: -28.7

Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)

January EU: 4.5 - Euro Area: -3.2

The next Business and Consumer Survey is due to be published on 27 February 2013.

Full tables are available on:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Scheduled publication dates

Flash estimate

Final release EU, euro area and Member States

February 2013

20 February 2013

27 February 2013

March 2013

20 March 2013

27 March 2013

April 2013

22 April 2013

29 April 2013

Kontakt:

Audrey Augier (+32 2 297 16 07)

Vandna Kalia (+32 2 299 58 24)

Simon O'Connor (+32 2 296 73 59)

1 :

N.B.: Aufgrund der jährlichen Aktualisierung der Ländergewichte und der Einbeziehung des Jahrs 2012 in die Standardisierungsstichprobe (1990-2012) wurden die Daten für die Vorperioden in der Veröffentlichung vom Januar 2013 revidiert. Insbesondere die Einbeziehung von 2012 in die Standardisierungsstichprobe führt zu Korrekturen des ESI sowohl für die Gebietsaggregate (EU/Euroraum) als auch für die einzelnen Länder (im Allgemeinen nach oben).


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