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Commission européenne

Communiqué de presse

Bruxelles, le 8 janvier 2013

Décembre 2012: le climat économique s'améliore dans la zone euro et reste globalement stable dans l'UE

En décembre, l'indicateur du climat économique (ESI) a augmenté de 1,3 point dans la zone euro et s'est établi à 87,0; il est resté globalement stable dans l'UE, à 88,4 (+0,3 point). En ce qui concerne la zone euro, l'amélioration du climat économique s'est fait sentir parmi les consommateurs et dans tous les secteurs, à l'exception du commerce de détail. Pour ce qui est de l'UE, le climat économique s'est amélioré dans les secteurs de l'industrie et de la construction, mais cette amélioration a été en partie annulée par une dégradation dans les secteurs des services et du commerce de détail. Dans l'UE, la confiance des consommateurs est demeurée globalement inchangée.

En ce qui concerne les sept plus grands États membres, le climat économique s'est amélioré en Italie (+2,0), en Allemagne (+1,0) et en France (+0,4) et est resté globalement stable en Espagne (+0,3), aux Pays-Bas (+0,2) et en Pologne (-0,2). Seul le Royaume-Uni a connu une nette dégradation du climat économique (-3,5).

Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.)

December EU: 88.4 - Euro Area: 87.

Industry confidence increased for the second month in both the EU (+1.4) and the euro area (+0.6), fuelled by a much more positive assessment of production expectations and, to a lesser extent, the current level of overall order books. Managers' assessment of stocks of finished products improved in the EU and remained broadly stable in the euro area. Also companies' past production and current level of export order books, which are not included in the confidence indicator, were assessed more favourably. Services confidence improved in the euro area (+2.1) but declined in the EU (-2.3). This difference is due to a massive drop in the UK results, which more than offset the marked increase registered last month. The impact is also observable at component level, with managers' assessment of the past business situation, views on past demand and demand expectations improving in the euro area but deteriorating in the EU. Confidence in retail trade decreased by around 1 point in both the EU and the euro area. In both areas, managers' assessment of the present business situation worsened while the assessment of the current volume of stocks improved. Managers' business expectations worsened in the EU while staying stable in the euro area. Confidence in construction improved by close to 1 point in both the EU and the euro area. While construction managers' assessment of their order books improved, employment expectations registered a mild deterioration.

Contrary to construction managers, industry managers revised employment plans upwards. In services and retail trade, no changes are envisaged on the euro-area level, while in the EU as a whole, managers revised their employment plans downwards. EU selling price expectations increased in industry and construction, while decreasing in retail trade and remaining stable in services. In the euro area, selling prices are expected to increase in all sectors, except for construction.

Consumer confidence remained broadly stable in the EU (-0.3) and pointed slightly upwards in the euro area (+0.4). Consumers in both areas were more positive about the future financial situation of their households and their savings expectations over the next 12 months remained stable (EU) or improved slightly (euro area). At the same time, consumers' assessment of the future general economic situation was more pessimistic (EU) or unchanged (euro area) and unemployment expectations worsened in both areas.

Financial services confidence, which is not included in the ESI, rose in both the EU (+6.4) and the euro area (+3.9). In the EU, managers' assessment of past business situation, past demand and demand expectations improved. In the euro area, the latter component worsened.

Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)

December EU: -12.7 - Euro Area: -14.4

Service confidence indicator (s.a.)

December EU: -11.2 - Euro Area: -9.8

Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)

December EU: -24.1 - Euro Area: -26.5

Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)

December EU: -10.3 - Euro Area: -15.8

Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)

December EU: -34.9 - Euro Area: -34.7

Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)

December EU: 3.5 - Euro Area: -5.8

The next Business and Consumer Survey is due to be published on 30 January 2013.

Full tables are available on:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Scheduled publication dates

Flash estimate

Final release EU, euro area and Member States

January 2013

23 January 2013

30 January 2013

February 2013

20 February 2013

27 February 2013

March 2013

20 March 2013

27 March 2013

Contacts:

Simon O'Connor (+32 2 296 73 59)

Audrey Augier (+32 2 297 16 07)

Vandna Kalia (+32 2 299 58 24)


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