Communiqué de presse
Bruxelles, le 28 juin 2012
Juin 2012: l'indicateur du climat économique reste stable pour l'UE et baisse pour la zone euro
Bruxelles, le 28 juin 2012 – L'indicateur du climat économique (ESI) s'est maintenu à 90,4 points en juin dans l'UE et a baissé de 0,6 point dans la zone euro pour s'établir à 89,9 points. Une baisse de la confiance dans les secteurs de l’industrie et des services et, dans une moindre mesure, auprès des consommateurs a été compensée ou atténuée par une confiance accrue dans les secteurs du commerce de détail et de la construction. Parmi les plus grands États membres, l’ESI a baissé en France (-1,5 point), en Allemagne (-1,4 point), en Pologne (-1,3 point) et, dans une certaine mesure, aux Pays-Bas (-0,3 point). Le climat économique s’est, au contraire, amélioré au Royaume-Uni (+1,9 point), en Espagne (+1,0 point) et en Italie (+0,9 point). L'Allemagne est le seul pays où l’ESI est resté supérieur à sa moyenne à long terme.
Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.)
June EU: 90.4 - Euro Area: 89.9
Confidence in industry declined in both the EU (-0.7) and the euro area (-1.3), based on a deterioration in managers' production expectations and their assessment of their companies' current level of overall order books. In both regions, the assessment of the adequacy of the current level of stocks of finished products remained broadly unchanged. Managers' assessment of their companies' past production and current level of export order books also deteriorated in both regions. Confidence in services fell in both the EU (-1.2) and, particularly, the euro area (-2.2), mirroring a deterioration in all three components: the assessment of the past business situation and past demand declined markedly in the euro area. In the EU the drop in the assessment of past demand was less pronounced. Also demand expectations deteriorated in both areas. After the sharp fall registered last month, confidence in retail trade rebounded in both the EU (+4.3) and the euro area (+3.2), due to a significant improvement in the perceived present and expected business situation. Retailers' assessment of the adequacy of the current volume of stocks improved too. Confidence also recovered in construction in both the EU (+1.5) and the euro area (+2.1) partly offsetting last month's decreases. Both managers' assessment of order books and employment expectations contributed to this recovery.
In both regions, employment plans were further revised down for industry and services, while they rose in retail trade and construction. At the same time, selling price expectations decreased significantly in all business sectors except construction.
Confidence among consumers declined slightly by 0.3 points in the EU and by 0.5 points in the euro area, based mainly on worsened expectations about the future general economic situation and increased unemployment fears in both regions. By contrast, consumers' expectations about of their own financial situation and their savings improved in both the EU and the euro area.
Confidence in financial services – not included in the ESI – decreased markedly in both the EU (-4.8) and the euro area (-2.6) due to significant decreases in demand expectations and the assessment of the past business situation. In the EU also the assessment of past demand deteriorated, while it remained broadly unchanged in the euro area.
Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)
June EU: -12.0
Service confidence indicator (s.a.)
June EU: -7.4
Euro Area: -7.4
Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)
June EU: -19.7
Euro Area: -19.8
Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)
June EU: -10.3
Euro Area: -14.9
Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)
June EU: -31.0
Euro Area: -28.1
Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)
June EU: -4.8
Euro Area: -12.8
The next Business and Consumer Survey is due to be published on 30 July 2012.
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