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Mai 2012: le climat économique se dégrade nettement dans l'Union européenne et dans la zone euro

European Commission - IP/12/516   30/05/2012

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Commission européenne – Communiqué de presse

Mai 2012: le climat économique se dégrade nettement dans l'Union européenne et dans la zone euro

Bruxelles, le 30 mai 2012 – L'indicateur du climat économique (ESI) s'est nettement dégradé en mai, baissant de 2,7 points dans l’UE et de 2,3 points dans la zone euro, pour s'établir à respectivement 90,5 et 90,6. Dans les deux zones, le recul s'explique par la baisse de la confiance dans tous les secteurs d'activité, en particulier dans l'industrie et le commerce de détail. En revanche, la confiance a augmenté chez les consommateurs, tant dans l'UE que dans la zone euro. L’ESI a baissé dans la plupart des États membres de l’UE et dans tous les plus grands États membres, le Royaume-Uni (-4,7), l'Italie (-4,3) et les Pays-Bas (3,9) signalant les plus forte diminutions, suivis par la France (- 1,5), l'Allemagne (- 1,4), l'Espagne (-1,0) et la Pologne (- 0,8). L’ESI ne reste supérieur à sa moyenne à long terme qu'en Allemagne.

Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.)

March EU: 93.9

Euro Area: 94.4

Confidence in industry deteriorated markedly in both the EU (-3.5) and the euro area (-2.3), based mainly on a strong deterioration in managers' assessment of their companies' current level of order books. Moreover, production expectations deteriorated sharply in the EU and to a lesser extent in the euro area. Also, in both regions, the assessment of the adequacy of current level of stocks of finished products worsened. Managers' assessment of their companies' past production and current level of export order books also deteriorated in both regions. Confidence in services went down in both the EU (-2.3) and the euro area (-2.5), mirroring a marked deterioration in all three components, namely the assessment of the past business situation, past demand and demand expectations. Confidence in retail trade witnessed the largest decrease among the sectors in both the EU (-6.1) and the euro area (-7.0), based on a sharp worsening in the perceived present and the expected business situation. Also retailers' assessment of the adequacy of current volume of stocks deteriorated. Although at a slower pace, declines in construction confidence in both the EU (-2.0) and the euro area (-2.6) added to the negative overall evolution.

In both regions, employment plans were further revised down for all business sectors, with the largest falls occurring in services and manufacturing in the EU. At the same time, selling price expectations decreased significantly in industry, construction, services and retail trade.

By contrast, confidence among consumers improved by 0.8 points in the EU and by 0.6 points in the euro area, based mainly on improved expectations about the future general economic situation and a significant easing of unemployment fears in both regions. Consumers' assessment of their own financial situation remained unchanged in the EU and worsened slightly in the euro area.

Confidence in financial services – not included in the ESI – decreased in both the EU (-1.4) and the euro area (-2.5) due to sharply decreasing demand expectations. At the same time, managers' assessment of past demand and the past business situation improved.

Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: - 11.2

Euro Area: - 11.3

Service confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -6.0

Euro Area: -4.9

Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -19.4

Euro Area: -19.3

Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -14.6

Euro Area: -18.1

Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -32.4

Euro Area: -30.1

Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)

March EU: 0.0

Euro Area: -10.2

The next Business and Consumer Survey is due to be published on 28 June 2012.

Full tables are available on:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm


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