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Mars 2012: le climat économique se détériore dans l’Union européenne, mais reste globalement stable dans la zone euro

European Commission - IP/12/323   29/03/2012

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Commission européenne – Communiqué de presse

Mars 2012: le climat économique se détériore dans l’Union européenne, mais reste globalement stable dans la zone euro

Bruxelles, le 29 mars 2012 – Après s’être amélioré en janvier et février, l’indicateur du climat économique (Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESI) s’est détérioré en mars, reculant de 0,8 point dans l’Union européenne et, de manière marginale, de 0,1 point dans la zone euro, pour s’établir à 93,2 et 94,4 respectivement. Ce recul s’explique essentiellement par une baisse de confiance dans le secteur industriel et celui de la construction. En revanche, la confiance a progressé chez les consommateurs, ainsi que dans le secteur des services et celui du commerce de détail.

Parmi les plus grands États membres, c’est le Royaume-Uni qui accuse la détérioration la plus nette du climat économique (-2,5), suivi par l’Allemagne (-2,4), les Pays-Bas (-1,3) et l’Espagne (-1,1). Le climat économique s’est, au contraire, amélioré en Italie (+3,5), en Pologne (+2,2) et en France (+2,0). L'Allemagne est le seul pays où l’ESI est supérieur à sa moyenne à long terme.

Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.)

March EU: 93.2

Euro Area: 94.4

Confidence in industry worsened markedly in both the EU (-1.8) and the euro area (-1.5). In both regions, managers' assessment of their companies' past production and current level of order books deteriorated. At the EU level, also the current assessment of stocks of finished products and export order books deteriorated. However, managers' production expectations remained broadly stable. In the euro area, production expectations declined, but managers' current assessment of export order books improved slightly, and that of stocks was broadly stable. Confidence in services improved in both the EU (+0.8) and the euro area (+0.6), thanks to more positive assessments of the past business situation and past demand, while demand expectations decreased slightly. Confidence in retail trade also improved in the euro area (+1.8) and –to a lesser extent –the EU (+0.5). By contrast, confidence in construction worsened in both the EU (-0.6) and the euro area (-1.9), mainly due to a worsening of managers' employment expectations in that sector.

In the EU, managers revised their employment plans upwards in all business sectors except construction. At the same time, expected selling prices were also revised up in the industry and services sectors.

Confidence among consumers improved by 0.8 points in the EU and by 1.2 points in the euro area, mainly on the back of a strong increase in consumers' expectations about the general economic situation and an easing of unemployment fears in both regions. Consumers' assessment of their own financial situation improved slightly in the euro-area, but remained unchanged in the EU. Consumers' saving expectations declined in both areas.

Confidence in financial services – not included in the ESI – remained broadly stable in the EU (+0.1) and declined in the euro area (-0.8), on the back of managers' more negative assessment of recent developments in business situation and demand. At the same time, managers' expectations about demand for their companies' services improved markedly.

Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: - 7.1

Euro Area: - 7.2

Service confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -3.6

Euro Area: -0.3

Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -19.3

Euro Area: -19.1

Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -11.4

Euro Area: -12.2

Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -29.2

Euro Area: -26.5

Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)

March EU: 3.5

Euro Area: -3.5

The next Business and Consumer Survey is due to be published on 26 April 2012.

Full tables are available on:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Contacts:

Amadeu Altafaj Tardio (+32 2 295 26 58)

Vandna Kalia (+32 2 299 58 24)

Audrey Augier (+32 2 297 16 07)


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