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März 2012: Wirtschaftliche Einschätzung schwächt sich in EU ab, bleibt im Eurogebiet aber weitgehend unverändert

European Commission - IP/12/323   29/03/2012

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Europäische Kommission – Pressemitteilung

März 2012: Wirtschaftliche Einschätzung schwächt sich in EU ab, bleibt im Eurogebiet aber weitgehend unverändert

Brüssel, 29. März 2012 – Nachdem sich der Indikator der wirtschaftlichen Einschätzung (ESI) im Januar und Februar verbessert hatte, ist er im März in der EU um 0,8 Punkte auf 93,2 und im Eurogebiet um 0,1 Punkte geringfügig auf 94,4 zurückgegangen. Hauptgrund für diesen Rückgang ist das abnehmende Vertrauen in der Industrie und Bauwirtschaft. Bei den Verbrauchern sowie im Dienstleistungssektor und im Einzelhandel hat das Vertrauen dagegen zugenommen.

Von den größten Mitgliedstaaten meldete das Vereinigte Königreich die deutlichste Stimmungseintrübung (‑2,5), gefolgt von Deutschland (‑2,4), den Niederlanden (‑1,3) und Spanien (‑1,1). Im Gegensatz dazu hellte sich die Stimmung in Italien (+3,5), in Polen (+2,2) und in Frankreich (+2,0) auf. Nur in Deutschland liegt der ESI über seinem langfristigen Durchschnitt.

Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.)

March EU: 93.2

Euro Area: 94.4

Confidence in industry worsened markedly in both the EU (-1.8) and the euro area (-1.5). In both regions, managers' assessment of their companies' past production and current level of order books deteriorated. At the EU level, also the current assessment of stocks of finished products and export order books deteriorated. However, managers' production expectations remained broadly stable. In the euro area, production expectations declined, but managers' current assessment of export order books improved slightly, and that of stocks was broadly stable. Confidence in services improved in both the EU (+0.8) and the euro area (+0.6), thanks to more positive assessments of the past business situation and past demand, while demand expectations decreased slightly. Confidence in retail trade also improved in the euro area (+1.8) and –to a lesser extent –the EU (+0.5). By contrast, confidence in construction worsened in both the EU (-0.6) and the euro area (-1.9), mainly due to a worsening of managers' employment expectations in that sector.

In the EU, managers revised their employment plans upwards in all business sectors except construction. At the same time, expected selling prices were also revised up in the industry and services sectors.

Confidence among consumers improved by 0.8 points in the EU and by 1.2 points in the euro area, mainly on the back of a strong increase in consumers' expectations about the general economic situation and an easing of unemployment fears in both regions. Consumers' assessment of their own financial situation improved slightly in the euro-area, but remained unchanged in the EU. Consumers' saving expectations declined in both areas.

Confidence in financial services – not included in the ESI – remained broadly stable in the EU (+0.1) and declined in the euro area (-0.8), on the back of managers' more negative assessment of recent developments in business situation and demand. At the same time, managers' expectations about demand for their companies' services improved markedly.

Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: - 7.1

Euro Area: - 7.2

Service confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -3.6

Euro Area: -0.3

Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -19.3

Euro Area: -19.1

Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -11.4

Euro Area: -12.2

Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)

March EU: -29.2

Euro Area: -26.5

Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)

March EU: 3.5

Euro Area: -3.5

The next Business and Consumer Survey is due to be published on 26 April 2012.

Full tables are available on:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Ansprechpartner/innen:

Amadeu Altafaj Tardio (+32 2 295 26 58)

Vandna Kalia (+32 2 299 58 24)

Audrey Augier (+32 2 297 16 07)


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