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Europäische Kommission

Pressemitteilung

Brüssel, 29. November 2012

November 2012: Wirtschaftliche Einschätzung in EU und Euroraum hellt sich auf

Im November ist der Indikator der wirtschaftlichen Einschätzung (ESI) in der EU um 2,0 auf 88,1 Punkte und im Euroraum um 1,4 auf 85,7 Punkte gestiegen, nachdem er seit September bereits langsamer gesunken war. Die Investitionserhebung in der Industrie deutet allerdings darauf hin, dass die Realinvestitionen 2013 stagnieren werden, was gewisse Zweifel an diesen ersten Aufschwungsignalen aufkommen lässt. Während sich die wirtschaftliche Einschätzung in der EU in allen Sektoren aufhellte – außer in der Bauwirtschaft, wo sie unverändert blieb – verzeichnete der Euroraum einen Anstieg in Industrie und Einzelhandel, der jedoch durch eine Eintrübung bei den Verbrauchern und im Bau teilweise wieder aufgezehrt wurde, sowie eine unveränderte Lage im Dienstleistungssektor.

Sechs der sieben größten Mitgliedstaaten meldeten eine verbesserte wirtschaftliche Einschätzung, namentlich das Vereinigte Königreich (+3,1), Deutschland (+2,3), Polen (+2,1), Frankreich (+1,6), Spanien (+0,5) und Italien (+0,4). In den Niederlanden trübte sich die wirtschaftliche Einschätzung ein (-3,2).

Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.)

November EU: 88.1 - Euro Area: 85.7

Industry confidence increased significantly for the first time since February (+1.6 in the EU and +3.2 in the euro area), fuelled by a much more positive assessment of the current level of overall order books, production expectations and the stocks of finished products. Also companies' past production and current level of export order books, which are not included in the confidence indicator, were assessed more favourably. In services, confidence continued last month's recovery in the EU (+2.9), while remaining broadly unchanged in the euro area (+0.2). Managers' assessment of the past business situation and views on past demand improved, while demand expectations brightened only in the EU but deteriorated in the euro area. Confidence in retail trade picked up in both the EU (+3.6) and the euro area (+2.5), due to better assessments of the present and expected business situation. The assessment of the current volume of stocks improved in the euro area, but worsened in the EU. Confidence in construction remained broadly unchanged in the EU (-0.1), but fell in the euro area (-2.5). The EU witnessed a slight improvement in the assessment of order books, counterbalanced by a mild deterioration in employment expectations, while the euro area registered losses in both components.

Contrary to managers in construction, industry and services managers revised employment plans upwards. In retail trade, EU managers revised their plans upwards, while euro area managers envisaged less employment. Selling price expectations decreased in all sectors, except for construction.

Consumer confidence improved in the EU (+0.5), but dropped in the euro area (-1.2). Consumers' assessment of the future general economic situation was less pessimistic (EU) or unchanged (euro area). Consumers in the EU were also more positive about their households' financial situation and their savings over the next 12 months, contrary to those in the euro area. Finally, unemployment expectations worsened in both areas.

Financial services confidence, which is not included in the ESI, dropped in the EU (-4.2) and the euro area (-6.0) as a result of worsening assessments of the past business situation, past demand and demand expectations.

According to the industrial investment survey of October/November 2012, euro-area managers plan to decrease real investment by 1% in 2013 compared with 2012. In the EU, no change in real investment is expected.

Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)

November EU: -14.2- Euro Area: -15.1

Service confidence indicator (s.a.)

November EU: -8.9 - Euro Area: -11.9

Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)

November EU: -23.8 - Euro Area: -26.9

Service confidence indicator (s.a.)

November EU: -8.9 - Euro Area: -11.9

Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)

November EU: -23.8 - Euro Area: -26.9

Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)

November EU: -35.6 - Euro Area: -35.5

Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)

November EU: -2.9 - Euro Area: -9.7

The next Business and Consumer Survey is due to be published on 8 January 2013.

Full tables are available on:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Scheduled publication dates

Flash estimate

Final release EU, euro area and Member States

December 2012

20 December 2012

8 January 2013

January 2013

23 January 2013

30 January 2013

February 2013

20 February 2013

27 February 2013

Kontakt:

Audrey Augier (+32 2 297 16 07)

Vandna Kalia (+32 2 299 58 24)

Simon O'Connor (+32 2 296 73 59)


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