Brüssel, den 6. Januar 2011
Dezember 2010: Wirtschaftliche Einschätzung weiter im Aufwärtstrend
Wichtiger Hinweis: Seit Mai 2010 werden die Daten der Unternehmenserhebungen nach einer aktualisierten Fassung der Systematik der Wirtschaftszweige (NACE Rev. 2) klassifiziert, so dass zu diesem Zeitpunkt ein Bruch in den Reihen entstehen kann. Im Dezember hat sich der Indikator der wirtschaftlichen Einschätzung (ESI) sowohl in der EU als auch im Euroraum weiter verbessert. Der Indikator stieg kräftig und kletterte in der EU um 1,0 auf 106,1 Punkte und im Euroraum um 1,1 auf 106,2 Punkte. An diesen Ergebnissen hatten die deutlich positiven Werte in Frankreich und Deutschland maßgeblichen Anteil.
Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.)
EU: December 106.1 Euro area: December 106.2
A majority of Member States reported an improvement in sentiment. Among the seven largest Member States only Spain registered a decrease (-0.9). France registered the most significant increase (+2.5), followed by the Netherlands (+2.4), Germany (+1.5) and Poland (+1.3), while improvements were less pronounced in Italy (+0.8) and the UK (+0.7). In Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands and Poland the ESI is above its long-term average.
Sentiment in industry, which increased sharply by 3.6 points in the EU and by 3.3 points in the euro area, was the main contributor to the overall improvement in confidence. The gain in industry was broad-based; reflecting improvements across all the components of the confidence indicator and strong positive developments in all the largest Member States. Also, sentiment in the retail sector improved substantially in both the EU (+5.5) and the euro area (+6.1), backed by pronounced gains in managers' assessment of the present business situation. In the EU, the indicator reached its highest historic level.
In line with the flash estimate released on 20 December 2010, confidence among consumers fell, both in the euro area (-1.6) and, to a lesser degree in the EU (-1.1). The drop in confidence mirrored in particular a significant worsening of consumers' assessment of the general economic situation and a rise in unemployment fears. After a sharp increase in November, confidence in services fell back in both the EU (-1.8) and the euro area (-0.5). Most respondents in this sector reported more downbeat assessments of demand and the business situation over the past three month. Among the largest Member States, only France continued to report improving sentiment in services. Sentiment in construction remained broadly stable at very low levels in both regions (+0.4 the EU and 0.0 in the euro area).
Confidence in financial services – not included in the ESI – improved strongly further in both the EU and the euro area (+5.3 and +4.5 points respectively).
Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: December 4.0
Euro area: December 4.0
Service confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: December 6.1
Euro area: December 9.8
Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: December -12.1
Euro area: December -11.0
Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: December 8.0
Euro area: December 4.6
Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: December -28.0
Euro area: December -26.2
Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)
EU: December 23.7
Euro area: December 25.5
The next Business and Consumer Survey is due to be published on 27 January 2011.
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