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IP/10/346

Brussels, 24 March 2010

Commission assesses stability and convergence programmes of ten EU Member States

Today the European Commission examined the updated stability and convergence programmes (SCPs)1 of the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Malta, Poland, Romania and Slovenia. In line with the Commission's assessments of a first group of fourteen Member States last week (see IP/10/288), the evaluation must be seen against the background of the economic and financial crisis which has led to a sharp deterioration of public finances since 2009 and triggered the Council decisions to open Excess Deficit Procedures (EDP) for a large majority of Member States. Within the batch of countries assessed today, only Denmark and Luxemburg have kept their general government deficits below 3% in 2009, although their fiscal situation is set to deteriorate markedly in 2010. For most countries this year will mark a fiscal consolidation process consistent with the recommendation set out in the EDPs and, in the case of Latvia, Hungary and Romania, with the conditions set out in the international financial assistance programmes. As to the budgetary targets set out in the programmes, the growth assumptions underlying these projections are in several cases optimistic especially in outer years, while the budgetary consolidation strategy is often not sufficiently backed up by concrete measures from 2011 onwards.

"The economic and financial crisis has taken its toll on public finances. Fiscal stimulus was necessary to support the recovery but the past two years have wiped out 20 years of fiscal consolidation. This means that we have to come back gradually to budgetary rigour next year at the latest ", said Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn.

Czech Republic

The programme foresees a reduction of the headline deficit from 6.6% of GDP in 2009 to 3% of GDP in 2013, in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009. The authorities have started implementing a sizeable consolidation package already in 2010, with a planned budgetary adjustment of around 2% of GDP in structural terms. Despite the expected economic recovery, the improvement in the structural balance is however projected to slow down markedly in 2011 and 2012. The fiscal adjustment in these years relies on expenditure cuts which however are not supported by concrete measures. Moreover, the programme does not provide information on how to achieve the reduction of the deficit projected for 2013.

Finally, weaknesses in the fiscal framework and high risks to the long-term sustainability of public finances remain causes for concern. Against this background, the invitations to the Czech Republic refer to the need for the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit to support the consolidation programme for 2011-2012 by a more concrete package of measures, improving enforcement of the fiscal framework and implementing reforms with a view of improving the long-term sustainability of public finances.

Denmark

In response to the economic crisis and in line with the EERP, Denmark provided a sizeable fiscal stimulus in 2009 and plans to maintain supportive fiscal policies also in 2010. The general government balance has thus turned sharply into deficit in 2009 and will further deteriorate in 2010 to over 5% of GDP. The deficit is projected to gradually narrow to below the 3% of GDP reference value by 2013, but the programme does not specify measures needed to attain the consolidation path. The budgetary outcomes could be worse than projected in the programme in the medium term due to the markedly favourable growth assumptions beyond 2011. In order to ensure a sustainable development of public finances, a key challenge will be to ensure continued reform to increase labour supply. Denmark is invited to reinforce efforts ensuring that the planned breach of the 3% of GDP reference value would remain contained and to specify the measures to underpin fiscal consolidation.

Hungary

Hungary's budget balance remained broadly stable in 2009 in comparison with one year earlier. The strong economic deterioration associated with the global economic downturn and its negative effects on fiscal balance were broadly compensated by expenditure cuts. For 2010, the programme targets a similar headline deficit at 3.8% of GDP. For 2011 and 2012, the budget deficit is expected to decline to 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively, although relying on measures that have not been fully specified in the programme. This deficit reduction path would allow the country to abrogate its excessive deficit in 2011, in line with the Council recommendation of 7 July 2009. Government debt should peak in 2010 at almost 80% of GDP and then decline to 73% by 2012. In the outer years, the budgetary outcomes could be worse than projected, due to slightly optimistic growth projections. Additionally, due to the lack of specific decisions backing the necessary consolidating measures, expenditure targets are also subject to considerable risks. As for the deficit figures, debt developments could be less favourable. Hungary is invited to correct the excessive deficit, to improve the quality of public finances and moderate expenditures through a further reform of public administration and structural reforms addressing loss-making enterprises.

Latvia

Following a period of economic overheating, the global financial crisis compounded a sharp reversal of the domestic cycle and financial sector difficulties, prompting a request for international financial assistance. After years of pro-cyclical policy, a strong fiscal adjustment was needed: the 2009 supplementary budget implied a consolidation effort of 4.4% of GDP, and the 2010 budget entails a further effort of over 4.2%. This last step is consistent with the 2010 deficit target previously agreed with international lenders, as are the 2011 and 2012 deficits planned in the programme. Risks for the programme, related to economic developments and the size of the remaining consolidation appear sizeable but overall balanced.

Against this assessment, Latvia is invited to take necessary steps to correct the excessive deficit in compliance with both the Council recommendation of 7 July 2009 and with the conditions attached to EU balance of payments assistance, by fully implementing the 2010 budget and preparing options for consolidation measures to be included in the 2011 budget. Other policy invitations relate to fiscal governance and transparency, reform of the social benefits and measures to foster economic growth.

Lithuania

Lithuania envisages a continuation of sizeable fiscal consolidation measures with a view to bringing the deficit from 9.1% of GDP in 2009 to 3% of GDP by 2012, as recommended by the Council on 16 February 2010. Yet, the budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected, given the reliance on favourable growth assumptions for 2010 and the limited information on measures to underpin the achievement of the targets in outer years. The Lithuanian economy is currently emerging from a severe recession. Average growth is projected to remain considerably lower over the medium-term than in the upswing of the previous cycle. The current economic challenge is to restore sustainable growth while avoiding any relapse into significant internal and external imbalances. Ambitious structural reforms that aim to strengthen the sustainability of public finances and to underpin the economic recovery are needed, as foreseen in the programme. Against this background, the invitations to Lithuania refer to strengthening the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and backing up the consolidation path with specific measures, implementing structural reforms, and improving the medium-term fiscal framework.

Luxembourg

The general government balance turned into a deficit in 2009, reflecting the working of automatic stabilisers as well as the impact of fiscal stimulus measures in line with the EERP. According to the programme, the deficit will increase from 1.1% of GDP in 2009 to 3.9% of GDP in 2010, while the debt to GDP ratio will remain low. The deficit will be slowly returning to 3.1% of GDP in 2014 under a no-policy-change scenario. This pace of consolidation does not represent a sufficient progress towards the medium-term objective of 0.5% of GDP surplus in structural terms. In view of the projected deficit path under the no-policy-change scenario and the large increase in age-related public spending projected for the coming decades, the invitations to Luxembourg refer to the need to start fiscal consolidation as from 2011, to specify the consolidation measures, and to reform its pension system with the aim of improving the long-term sustainability of its public finances.

Malta

According to the stability programme the deficit ratio should broadly stabilise in 2010, at 3.9% of GDP, followed by a drop below 3% in 2011, in line with the Council recommendation of 16 February 2010, and stabilising thereafter. The debt ratio is projected to peak at almost 69% in 2010. The deficit and debt ratios could be higher than planned throughout the programme period. On the one hand, the programme does not adequately specify the measures needed to achieve the deficit targets, while on the other hand additional consolidation measures could be needed should the economic growth and revenue increases turn out lower than projected or should expenditure slippages materialises.

In addition to achieving a sound budgetary position and improving long-term sustainability, Malta faces the challenge of strengthening competitiveness to improve the economy's resilience. Against this background, the invitations addressed to Malta concern the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and move to a medium-term sustainable position and improvements to long-term sustainability as well as to the budgetary framework.

Poland

The programme envisages bringing the deficit from 7.2% of GDP in 2009 to 2.9% of GDP by 2012, in line with the Council recommendation of 7 July 2009. However, fiscal consolidation is heavily back loaded as most of the deficit reduction is projected to take place in 2012. Moreover, the budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected in the programme. The projections are based on favourable macroeconomic assumptions and the planned expenditure savings in 2011 and 2012 are not supported by sufficiently concrete measures. In view of the recovery projected by the authorities from 2010, and of the large structural government deficit, a more front loaded fiscal consolidation strategy would be appropriate. The programme sets out measures to strengthen the current fiscal framework, but more ambitious reforms are needed. The invitations to Poland address the need to correct the excessive deficit by front loading the fiscal adjustment, back up the consolidation path with specific measures and seek more ambitious reforms to improve the fiscal framework.

Romania

Romania aims at the reduction of the general government deficit form 8% of GDP in 2009 to 3% of GDP in 2012, in line with the Council Recommendation of 16 February 2010. The planned fiscal adjustment is front loaded with a greater consolidation effort envisaged for 2010 and 2011 than for 2012. A full implementation of the consolidation measures foreseen for 2010 is essential to reach the 6.3% of GDP deficit target set for that year. However, the convergence programme does not sufficiently specify the consolidation measures to be taken in 2011 and 2012 although additional information is expected to be included in the forthcoming 2011-2013 Medium-Term Budgetary Framework. Moreover, implementation of the fiscal governance reforms decided upon within the context of the EU balance of payments assistance programme to Romania should help in achieving the budgetary targets for these years. Adoption and implementation of the draft pension reform will be crucial in improving the long-term sustainability of public finances. The invitations to Romania concern the specification and implementation of fiscal consolidation measures to correct the excessive deficit, improvements of the fiscal framework, and the adoption and implementation of the draft pension law.

Slovenia

The programme estimates the general government deficit to have increased from 1.8% of GDP in 2008 to 5.7% in 2009, and that it will stabilise in 2010. The deficit ratio is then targeted to return below the 3% of GDP threshold in 2013, in line with the 2 December 2009 Council recommendation, thanks to an expenditure-based consolidation effort. From 34.4% of GDP in 2009, the gross debt ratio is planned to increase further until 2011 to then broadly stabilise at some 42% of GDP. The deficit and debt ratios could turn out higher than targeted in light of the optimistic revenue projections in 2010 followed by favourable growth assumptions after 2011, the possibility of expenditure overruns and the fact that the measures underpinning the envisaged consolidation have not yet been fully specified and adopted.

There remain high risks with regard to the long-term sustainability of public finances as a result of a high projected increase in pension expenditure over the coming decades. Invitations to Slovenia concern the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit, improvements to the fiscal framework and quality of public finances as well as a further reform of the pension system and a more ambitious medium-term budgetary strategy.

The country-specific Commission recommendations for a Council opinion on each programme are available at:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/sgp/convergence/programmes/2009-10_en.htm

Czech Republic

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Feb 2010

2.5

-4.0

1.3

2.6

3.8

COM Nov 2009

2.5

-4.8

0.8

2.3

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

4.4

3.7

4.4

5.2

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Feb 2010

6.3

0.6

1.8

1.5

1.8

COM Nov 2009

6.3

0.6

1.5

1.8

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

6.4

2.9

3.0

2.5

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Feb 2010

4.8

-2.0

-2.9

-2.6

-1.1

COM Nov 20092

5.6

-1.8

-2.9

-2.5

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

1.9

0.4

-0.4

-0.2

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

-2.4

-0.2

1.0

0.2

0.6

COM Nov 2009

-2.2

-1.5

-0.7

-0.4

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

-1.0

-0.5

0.4

1.2

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

40.9

39.0

40.5

40.8

40.5

COM Nov 2009

40.9

40.3

41.0

40.9

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

41.0

40.6

39.6

39.0

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

43.0

45.5

45.8

45.6

44.7

COM Nov 2009

43.0

46.9

46.5

46.6

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

42.2

42.2

41.1

40.2

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

-2.1

-6.6

-5.3

-4.8

-4.2

COM Nov 2009

-2.1

-6.6

-5.5

-5.7

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

-1.2

-1.6

-1.5

-1.2

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

-1.0

-5.3

-3.5

-2.8

-2.0

COM Nov 2009

-1.0

-5.2

-3.9

-4.1

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

0.0

-0.4

-0.4

-0.1

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

-3.8

-5.9

-4.2

-3.8

-3.8

COM Nov 2009

-4.1

-6.0

-4.5

-4.8

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

-2.0

-1.7

-1.4

-1.1

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

-3.7

-6.1

-4.1

-3.7

-3.5

COM Nov 2009

-4.1

-6.3

-4.7

-4.9

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

-1.9

-1.7

-1.3

-1.1

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

30.0

35.2

38.6

40.8

42.0

COM Nov 2009

30.0

36.5

40.6

44.0

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

28.8

27.9

26.8

25.5

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 2.4%, 2.0%, 2.0% and 2.2% respectively in the period 2009-2012

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.2% of GDP in 2009 (deficit reducing) and -0.1% in 2010 and 2011 (deficit-increasing) according to the most recent programme and 0.3% of GDP in 2009, 0.2% of GDP in 2010 and 0.1% of GDP in 2011(all deficit-reducing) in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Denmark

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Feb 2010

-0.9

-4.3

1.3

1.6

2.0

2.3

2.6

2.6

COM Nov 2009

-1.2

-4.5

1.5

1.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

0.2

-0.2

0.7

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Feb 2010

3.6

0.8

2.1

1.5

2.3

2.1

1.9

1.9

COM Nov 2009

3.6

1.1

1.5

1.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

3.6

1.3

2.1

1.4

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.8

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Feb 2010

0.3

-4.5

-3.9

-3.1

-2.0

-0.9

0.1

0.7

COM Nov 20092

-0.1

-5.1

-4.1

-3.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

0.0

-1.4

-1.8

-1.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

2.2

2.9

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.9

3.2

3.5

COM Nov 2009

2.2

2.0

0.5

1.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

1.7

1.8

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.1

1.8

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

54.3

53.3

52.4

52.4

51.8

51.8

51.9

52.0

COM Nov 2009

55.3

53.9

52.8

53.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

53.2

51.2

51.5

52.1

51.8

51.7

51.6

51.5

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

50.9

56.3

57.7

56.5

54.9

53.6

52.8

52.0

COM Nov 2009

51.9

55.9

57.6

56.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

50.2

51.2

52.8

51.8

51.7

51.6

51.6

51.6

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

3.4

-2.9

-5.3

-4.1

-3.1

-1.8

-0.8

0.0

COM Nov 2009

3.4

-2.0

-4.8

-3.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

3.0

0.0

-1.2

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.0

-0.1

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

4.8

-1.3

-3.7

-2.3

-1.2

0.3

1.3

2.1

COM Nov 2009

4.8

-0.5

-3.3

-1.9

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

-4.2

-1.5

-0.2

-1.6

-1.3

-1.2

-0.9

-0.7

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

3.2

0.0

-2.8

-2.1

-1.7

-1.1

-0.8

-0.4

COM Nov 2009

3.4

1.3

-2.1

-1.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

3.0

0.9

0.0

1.1

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

3.2

1.4

-1.1

-1.0

-0.8

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

COM Nov 2009

3.4

1.4

-1.5

-1.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

4.0

2.6

1.7

1.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

33.4

38.5

41.8

46.2

48.3

48.1

46.1

45.0

COM Nov 2009

33.5

33.7

35.3

35.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Oct 2008

30.3

27.9

26.3

25.4

24.6

23.8

23.2

22.6

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 1.4%, 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.9% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 1.4% of GDP in 2009, 1.7% in 2010, 1.1% in 2011, 0.9% in 2012, 0.8% in 2013 and 0.0% in 2015; all deficit-reducing according to the most recent programme and 0.1% of GDP in 2009 and 0.6% in 2010; all deficit-reducing according to the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast. Due to differencees in methodology, the one-offs reported in the programme does not qualify as one-offs according to the Commission Services' definition. Using this definition, the one-offs would be 0.3%-of-GDP deficit reducing in 2010 and zero in the remaining years.

 

Source:

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Hungary

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Jan 2010

0.6

-6.7

-0.3

3.7

3.8

COM Nov 2009

0.6

-6.5

-0.5

3.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

1.3

-0.9

1.6

2.5

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Jan 2010

6.1

4.2

4.1

2.3

2.6

COM Nov 2009

6.0

4.3

4.0

2.5

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

6.2

4.5

3.2

3.0

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Jan 2010

2.6

-4.8

-5.6

-2.8

-0.1

COM Nov 20092

2.9

-4.0

-4.7

-2.0

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

2.3

-0.1

0.4

n.a.

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-6.2

2.2

1.6

1.5

1.4

COM Nov 2009

-5.6

0.5

0.3

0.4

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-5.1

-3.7

-2.5

-1.6

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

45.5

45.9

45.0

44.2

43.3

COM Nov 2009

45.5

45.9

45.1

45.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

45.2

45.8

46.0

45.8

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

49.3

49.8

48.8

47.0

45.8

COM Nov 2009

49.3

50.0

49.4

49.0

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

48.6

48.4

48.5

48.0

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-3.8

-3.9

-3.8

-2.8

-2.5

COM Nov 2009

-3.8

-4.1

-4.2

-3.9

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-3.4

-2.6

-2.5

-2.2

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

0.4

0.5

0.5

1.0

1.2

COM Nov 2009

0.4

0.2

-0.1

-0.2

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

0.6

1.9

2.0

2.2

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-5.0

-1.7

-1.3

-1.5

-2.5

COM Nov 2009

-5.1

-2.2

-2.1

-3.0

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-4.3

-2.8

-3.2

n.a.

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-4.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.5

-2.5

COM Nov 2009

-4.8

-2.1

-2.1

-3.0

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-4.0

-2.8

-3.2

n.a.

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

72.9

78.0

79.0

76.9

73.6

COM Nov 2009

72.9

79.1

79.8

79.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

71.1

72.5

72.2

69.0

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 0.8%, 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.4% of GDP in 2008, 0.1% in 2009 both deficit-reducing and 0.2% of GDP in 2010 deficit increasing according to the most recent programme and 0.3% of GDP in 2008 and 0.1% in 2009, all deficit-reducing, in the Commission services' November 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ November 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Latvia

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Jan 2010

-4.6

-18.0

-4.0

2.0

3.8

COM Nov 2009

-4.6

-18.0

-4.0

2.0

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

-2.0

-5.0

-3.0

1.5

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Jan 2010

15.4

3.5

-3.7

-2.8

0.0

COM Nov 2009

15.3

3.5

-3.7

-1.2

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

15.4

5.9

2.2

1.3

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Jan 2010

9.5

-8.8

-10.7

-7.8

-3.8

COM Nov 20092

9.2

-9.1

-10.7

-7.0

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

5.9

-1.6

-5.7

-5.3

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-10.8

8.2

10.7

10.4

8.0

COM Nov 2009

-11.5

8.9

8.0

6.1

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

-13.4

-5.4

-2.6

-2.3

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

34.7

33.8

36.2

38.6

39.4

COM Nov 2009

34.6

34.9

33.4

32.9

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

35.1

32.5

35.0

37.7

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

38.8

43.8

44.7

44.6

42.4

COM Nov 2009

38.8

43.8

45.7

45.1

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

38.6

37.7

39.9

40.7

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-4.1

-10.0

-8.5

-6.0

-2.9

COM Nov 2009

-4.1

-9.0

-12.3

-12.2

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

-3.5

-5.3

-4.9

-2.9

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-3.4

-8.7

-6.1

-2.7

0.3

COM Nov 2009

-3.4

-7.6

-9.9

-8.3

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

-2.9

-3.7

-3.5

-1.4

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-6.7

-7.6

-5.5

-3.9

-1.8

COM Nov 2009

-6.7

-6.4

-9.3

-10.2

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

-5.1

-4.9

-3.3

-1.4

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-6.7

-7.6

-5.5

-3.9

-1.8

COM Nov 2009

-6.7

-7.0

-10.2

-10.2

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

-5.1

-4.9

-3.3

-1.4

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

19.5

34.8

55.1

59.1

56.8

COM Nov 2009

19.5

33.2

48.6

60.4

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

19.4

32.4

45.4

47.3

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 1.6%, -1.4%, -2.3% and -2.1% respectively in the period 2008-2011

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Lithuania

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Jan 2010

2.8

-15.0

1.6

3.2

1.2

COM Nov 2009

2.8

-18.1

-3.9

2.5

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

3.5

-4.8

-0.2

4.5

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Jan 2010

11.1

4.2

-1

1

1.5

COM Nov 2009

11.1

3.9

-0.7

1.0

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

11.2

5.4

3.6

-0.1

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Jan 2010

8.8

-7.7

-5.9

-2.9

-1.7

COM Nov 20092

11.8

-8.2

-10.8

-8.2

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

5.4

-2.8

-5.7

-4.0

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-10.2

3.7

7.5

5.3

4.3

COM Nov 2009

-10.6

3.3

4.8

4.3

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

-10.2

-1.8

-4.7

-5.7

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

34.2

34.3

36.2

35.6

35.7

COM Nov 2009

34.2

36.1

36.8

36.3

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

33.8

35.8

37.3

36.4

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

37.4

43.4

44.3

41.4

38.7

COM Nov 2009

37.4

45.9

46.0

46.0

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

36.7

37.8

38.3

36.4

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-3.2

-9.1

-8.1

-5.8

-3.0

COM Nov 2009

-3.2

-9.8

-9.2

-9.7

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

-2.9

-2.1

-1.0

0.0

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-2.6

-7.8

-6.2

-3.6

-0.6

COM Nov 2009

-2.6

-8.4

-7.0

-7.1

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

-2.3

-1.2

0.0

1.1

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-5.6

-7.0

-6.5

-5.0

-2.6

COM Nov 2009

-6.4

-7.6

-6.3

-7.5

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

-4.4

-1.3

0.5

1.1

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-6.0

-7.2

-6.8

-4.8

-2.3

COM Nov 2009

-6.3

-8.0

-7.0

-7.5

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

-4.9

-1.8

0.1

1.1

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

15.6

29.5

36.6

39.8

41.0

COM Nov 2009

15.6

29.9

40.7

49.3

n.a.

CP Jan 2009

15.3

16.9

18.1

17.1

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 3.0%, -0.2%, -1.2% and -0.3% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.5% of GDP in 2008, 0.2% of GDP in 2009 and 0.3% in 2010; all deficit-improving; and 0.3% of GDP in 2011 and 0.3% of GDP in 2012; all deficit-reducing according to the most recent programme and 0.1% of GDP in 2008, 0.6% in 2009 and 0.7% in 2010; all deficit-reducing in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Luxembourg

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

0.0

-3.9

2.5

3.0

2.7

2.9

3.1

COM Nov 2009

0.0

-3.6

1.1

1.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

1.0

-0.9

1.4

4.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

4.1

4.1

0.0

2.1

1.8

n.a.

n.a.

COM Nov 2009

4.1

0.0

1.8

1.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

4.1

0.6

2.5

2.9

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

1.9

-4.0

-3.4

-2.8

-2.4

-2.0

-1.7

COM Nov 20092

1.7

-3.9

-4.6

-5.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

1.1

-2.3

-3.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Nov 2009

4.9

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

40.2

41.6

39.6

38.3

38.5

39.0

39.5

COM Nov 2009

40.2

41.1

39.7

39.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

43.2

42.8

42.8

40.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

37.7

42.6

43.5

43.2

43.2

43.3

42.6

COM Nov 2009

37.7

43.3

43.9

43.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

41.2

43.4

44.3

39.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.5

-1.1

-3.9

-5.0

-4.6

-4.3

-3.1

COM Nov 2009

2.5

-2.2

-4.2

-4.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

43.2

42.8

42.8

40.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.8

-0.5

-3.3

-4.3

-3.7

-3.3

-2.1

COM Nov 2009

2.7

-1.6

-3.6

-3.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

2.3

-0.3

-1.2

1.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

1.6

0.9

-2.2

-3.6

-3.4

-3.3

-2.3

COM Nov 2009

1.6

-0.3

-2.0

-1.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

2.4

1.6

0.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

1.6

0.9

-2.2

-3.6

-3.4

-3.3

-2.3

COM Nov 2009

1.6

-0.3

-2.0

-1.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

2.4

1.6

0.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

13.5

14.9

18.3

23.9

29.3

34.1

37.4

COM Nov 2009

13.5

15.0

16.4

17.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

14.4

14.9

17.0

14.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Notes:

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 3.6%, 2.0%, 1.9% and 2.2% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. There are no one-off or other temporary measures from year 2010 to year 2014 according to the most recent programme and to the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Malta - Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Feb 2010

2.1

-2.0

1.1

2.3

2.9

COM Nov 2009

2.1

-2.2

0.7

1.6

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

2.8

2.2

2.5

2.8

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Feb 2010

4.7

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.0

COM Nov 2009

4.7

2.0

2.0

2.2

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

4.5

2.7

2.3

2.0

n.a.

Output gap2

(% of potential GDP)

SP Feb 2010

1.3

-1.8

-1.7

-0.6

1.3

COM Nov 20093

2.0

-1.0

-0.9

0.1

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

0.1

-0.3

-0.5

0.5

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-4.9

-1.1

-3.6

-2.2

-1.4

COM Nov 2009

-5.1

-2.4

-1.8

-1.4

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-5.1

-3.1

-2.7

0.7

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

40.2

41.4

43.8

43.3

42.5

COM Nov 2009

40.3

41.2

41.9

42.1

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

40.6

41.7

41.8

41.9

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

44.8

45.2

47.7

46.3

45.3

COM Nov 2009

45.0

45.7

46.3

46.4

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

43.9

43.2

42.1

40.7

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-4.7

-3.8

-3.9

-2.9

-2.8

COM Nov 2009

-4.7

-4.5

-4.4

-4.3

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-3.3

-1.5

-0.3

1.2

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-1.4

-0.5

-0.6

0.3

0.4

COM Nov 2009

-1.4

-1.2

-1.2

-1.0

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

0.0

1.9

3.0

4.3

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance2

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-5.1

-3.1

-3.3

-2.7

-3.3

COM Nov 2009

-5.4

-4.2

-4.1

-4.4

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-3.4

-1.4

-0.1

1.0

n.a.

Structural balance4

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-5.4

-3.2

-3.5

-2.8

-3.3

COM Nov 2009

-5.0

-4.3

-4.1

-4.4

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-3.7

-1.7

-0.2

0.9

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

63.6

66.8

68.6

68.0

67.3

COM Nov 2009

63.8

68.5

70.9

72.5

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

62.8

61.9

59.8

56.3

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1The Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast was prepared on a pre-budget basis.

2Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission. services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

3Based on estimated potential growth of 1.3%, 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.6% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

4Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.3% of GDP in 2008, 0.1% in 2009, 0.2% in 2010, 0.1% in both 2011 and 2012, all deficit-reducing according to the most recent programme, and 0.4% of GDP in 2008 deficit-increasing and 0.2% in 2009 deficit-reducing in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Poland

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Feb 2010

5.0

1.7

3.0

4.5

4.2

COM Nov 2009

5.0

1.2

1.8

3.2

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

5.1

3.7

4.0

4.5

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Feb 2010

4.2

4.0

2.1

2.7

3.2

COM Nov 2009

4.2

3.9

1.9

2.0

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

4.2

2.9

2.5

2.5

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Feb 2010

2.4

−0.4

−1.7

−1.5

−1.5

COM Nov 20092

2.6

−0.4

−2.2

−2.3

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

1.0

−0.1

−0.6

−0.5

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

4.0

0.1

1.1

0.0

0.8

COM Nov 2009

−4.0

−0.2

−0.3

−0.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

−4.0

−1.8

−1.3

−1.5

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

39.6

37.4

39.6

40.3

40.3

COM Nov 2009

39.6

37.6

38.6

38.3

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

39.8

40.7

40.0

39.7

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

43.3

44.6

46.5

46.2

43.3

COM Nov 2009

43.3

44.0

46.1

45.9

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

42.6

43.2

42.4

41.7

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

−3.6

−7.2

−6.9

−5.9

−2.9

COM Nov 2009

−3.6

−6.4

−7.5

−7.6

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

−2.7

−2.5

−2.3

−1.9

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

−1.4

−4.8

−4.2

−3.1

−0.2

COM Nov 2009

−1.4

−3.8

−4.6

−4.6

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

−0.3

0.1

0.2

0.5

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

−4.6

−7.0

−6.2

−5.3

−2.3

COM Nov 2009

−4.7

−6.3

−6.6

−6.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

−3.1

−2.5

−2.1

−1.7

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

−4.6

−7.0

−6.2

−5.3

−2.3

COM Nov 2009

−4.7

−6.4

−6.6

−6.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

−3.1

−2.5

−2.3

−1.7

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Feb 2010

47.2

50.7

53.1

56.3

55.8

COM Nov 2009

47.2

51.7

57.0

61.3

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

45.9

45.8

45.5

44.8

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 5.0%, 4.2%, 3.7% and 3.3% respectively in the period 2008-2011

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. There are no one-off measures according to the most recent programme and 0.1% of GDP in 2009, deficit-reducing, in the Commission services' Autumn 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn forecast (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Romania

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Mar 2010

7.3

-7.0

1.3

2.4

3.7

COM Nov 2009

6.2

-8.0

0.5

2.6

n.a.

CP Jun 2009

7.1

-4.0

0.1

2.4

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Mar 2010

7.9

5.6

3.7

3.2

2.8

COM Nov 2009

7.9

5.7

3.5

3.4

n.a.

CP Jun 2009

7.9

5.8

3.5

3.2

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Mar 2010

9.5

-1.7

-3.3

-3.7

-2.7

COM Nov 20092

10.0

-2.2

-4.4

-4.3

n.a.

CP Jun 2009

8.7

0.5

-2.5

-2.9

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

CP Mar 2010

-11.2

-3.9

-3.9

-3.9

-3.7

COM Nov 2009

-11.8

-5.0

-5.1

-5.2

n.a.

CP Jun 2009

-11.9

-6.3

-5.4

-5.2

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Mar 2010

32.8

31.1

31.7

31.9

31.8

COM Nov 2009

32.8

31.6

31.8

32.0

n.a.

CP Jun 2009

33.1

33.2

33.7

34.2

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Mar 2010

38.4

39.1

38.1

36.4

34.8

COM Nov 2009

38.4

39.4

38.6

37.9

n.a.

CP Jun 2009

38.5

38.3

37.8

37.0

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Mar 2010

-5.5

-8.0

-6.3

-4.4

-3.0

COM Nov 2009

-5.5

-7.8

-6.8

-5.9

n.a.

CP Jun 2009

-5.4

-5.1

-4.1

-2.9

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Mar 2010

-4.8

-6.5

-4.5

-2.6

-1.6

COM Nov 2009

-4.8

-6.2

-5.0

-3.9

n.a.

CP Jun 2009

-4.7

-3.6

-2.4

-1.4

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Mar 2010

-8.5

-7.5

-5.2

-3.2

-2.1

COM Nov 2009

-8.5

-7.1

-5.5

-4.6

n.a.

CP Jun 2009

-8.2

-5.3

-3.3

-2.0

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

CP Mar 2010

-8.5

-7.5

-5.2

-3.2

-2.1

COM Nov 2009

-8.5

-7.1

-5.5

-4.6

n.a.

CP Jun 2009

-8.2

-5.3

-3.3

-2.0

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Mar 2010

13.6

23.0

28.3

29.4

29.7

COM Nov 2009

13.6

21.8

27.4

31.3

n.a.

CP Jun 2009

13.6

18.0

20.8

22.0

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 5.1%, 3.4%, 2.9% and 2.5% respectively in the period 2008-2011

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Slovenia

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

3.5

-7.3

0.9

2.5

3.7

3.5

COM Nov 2009

3.5

-7.4

1.3

2.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

3.5

-4.0

1.0

2.7

n.a.

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 20104

5.7

1.0

1.5

2.5

2.7

2.7

COM Nov 2009

5.5

0.9

1.7

2.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

5.7

-3.4

-3.9

-3.2

-1.5

0.1

COM Nov 20092

5.7

-3.3

-3.3

-2.8

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

4.4

-2.3

-3.5

-3.1

n.a.

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Nov 2009

-6.0

-0.7

-0.1

-0.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

42.4

42.4

43.2

42.9

42.7

42.5

COM Nov 2009

42.4

43.2

43.2

42.9

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

42.7

41.9

42.4

42.4

n.a.

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

44.2

48.1

48.9

47.1

45.9

44.2

COM Nov 2009

44.2

49.5

50.2

49.9

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

43.6

47.1

46.4

45.8

n.a.

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.8

-5.7

-5.7

-4.2

-3.1

-1.6

COM Nov 2009

-1.8

-6.3

-7.0

-6.9

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

-0.9

-5.1

-3.9

-3.4

n.a.

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-0.7

-4.6

-3.9

-2.3

-1.1

0.4

COM Nov 2009

-0.7

-4.8

-5.1

-4.9

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

0.2

-3.6

-2.2

-1.6

n.a.

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-4.3

-4.2

-4.0

-2.8

-2.4

-1.6

COM Nov 2009

-4.5

-4.8

-5.4

-5.6

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

-2.9

-4.1

-2.3

-2.0

n.a.

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-4.3

-4.2

-4.0

-2.8

-2.4

-1.6

COM Nov 2009

-4.5

-4.7

-5.4

-5.6

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

-2.9

-4.1

-2.3

-2.0

n.a.

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

n.a.

34.4

39.6

42.0

42.7

42.1

COM Nov 2009

22.5

35.1

42.8

48.2

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

22.8

30.5

34.1

36.3

n.a.

n.a.

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 3.3%, 1.2%, 1.2% and 1.4% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are zero according to the most recent programme and 0.1% of GDP in 2009, deficit-increasing, according to the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

4CPI instead of HICP inflation projections.

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

1 :

According to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 on the strengthening of budgetary surveillance and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies, Member States must submit updated macroeconomic and budgetary projections every year. Such updates are called stability programmes in the case of countries that have adopted the euro, and convergence programmes in the case of those that have not yet done so. This regulation is also referred to as the 'preventive arm' of the Stability and Growth Pact.


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