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IP/10/288

Brussel, 17 maart 2010

Commissie beoordeelt stabiliteits- en convergentie- programma's van veertien EU-lidstaten

Vandaag heeft de Europese Commissie zich gebogen over de geactualiseerde stabiliteits- en convergentieprogramma's1 van België, Bulgarije, Duitsland, Estland, Ierland, Spanje, Frankrijk, Italië, Nederland, Oostenrijk, Slowakije, Zweden, Finland en het Verenigd Koninkrijk. Deze evaluaties moeten worden gezien tegen de achtergrond van de ernstige economische en financiële crisis, die grote gevolgen voor de overheidsfinanciën heeft gehad. Wegens de werking van de automatische stabilisatoren en de discretionaire stimuleringsmaatregelen die in overeenstemming met het Europees economisch herstelplan2 zijn getroffen om op de uitzonderlijke economische omstandigheden in te spelen, loopt ten aanzien van de overgrote meerderheid van de lidstaten thans een buitensporigtekortprocedure waartoe de Raad in 2009 heeft besloten. Van de landen die vandaag zijn geëvalueerd, zijn alleen Bulgarije en Estland voornemens om tijdens de programmaperiode hun overheidstekort onder de in het stabiliteits- en groeipact vastgelegde referentiewaarde van 3% van het bbp te houden. Al bij al worden voor het merendeel van de veertien programma's de groeihypothesen die aan de budgettaire projecties ten grondslag liggen, als nogal optimistisch aangemerkt, hetgeen inhoudt dat de feitelijke begrotingsresultaten slechter kunnen uitvallen dan verwacht. Bovendien wordt de budgettaire consolidatiestrategie in diverse gevallen vanaf 2011 onvoldoende met concrete maatregelen onderbouwd.

"In de vandaag beoordeelde programma's staan twee elementen centraal: de getroffen stimuleringsmaatregelen om de neerwaartse economische spiraal af te wenden en de eind vorig jaar overeengekomen budgettaire exitstrategie. Naar ons oordeel wordt de door de Raad afgesproken exitstrategie daadwerkelijk ten uitvoer gelegd: globaal genomen zal 2010 weliswaar nog een stimuleringsjaar zijn, maar in 2011 zullen ambitieuze consolidatie-inspanningen worden geleverd. De voornaamste risico's voor de consolidatie vloeien voort uit enigszins optimistische macro-economische aannamen en onvoldoende gespecificeerde consolidatiemaatregelen", aldus de heer Olli Rehn, het voor economische en monetaire zaken bevoegde Commissielid.

België

In het Belgische stabiliteitsprogramma wordt na het expansieve beleid dat in 2009 conform het Europees economisch herstelplan is gevoerd, vanaf 2010 een terugkeer naar een restrictieve begrotingsstrategie gepland. Dat zou ertoe leiden dat het buitensporige tekort in 2012 wordt gecorrigeerd, zoals de Raad op 2 december 2009 heeft aanbevolen. Verwacht wordt dat de bruto schuldquote van de overheid, die in 2008 en 2009 is gestegen (tot 98%), tot 2011 zal blijven oplopen en vanaf 2012 wederom zal beginnen te dalen. De feitelijke begrotingsresultaten kunnen echter slechter uitvallen dan verwacht, met name na 2011. Ten eerste zijn de maatregelen die aan de doelstelling voor 2011 ten grondslag liggen slechts gedeeltelijk beschreven en zijn er voor 2012 geen maatregelen gespecificeerd. Voorts is er sprake van enigszins optimistische macro-economische aannamen. De Belgische regering heeft er zich in het programma toe verbonden de nodige aanvullende maatregelen te treffen mocht de economische groei ontoereikend zijn om de tekortdoelstelling van 3% van het bbp voor 2012 te realiseren. België wordt verzocht nader aan te geven welke begrotingsstrategie zal worden gevolgd om het buitensporige tekort te verhelpen en de schuld terug te dringen, alsook de houdbaarheid van de overheidsfinanciën op lange termijn en het begrotingskader te verbeteren.

Nederland

In het Nederlandse stabiliteitsprogramma wordt ervan uitgegaan dat het tekort, na de forse verslechtering van de begrotingssituatie in 2009 als gevolg van de sterke krimp van de economie, in 2011 en 2012 geleidelijk zal teruglopen. Verwacht wordt evenwel dat het tekort tot het laatste jaar van de programmaperiode (2012) boven de referentiewaarde van 3% van het bbp zal blijven. 2013, het jaar waarin het buitensporige tekort volgens de aanbeveling van de Raad van 2 december 2009 verholpen moet zijn, wordt niet door het programma bestreken. De schuldquote, die in 2009 boven de in het Verdrag vastgelegde referentiewaarde van 60% van het bbp is uitgekomen, zou tijdens de programmahorizon een aanzienlijke toename vertonen. Het in het programma geschetste budgettaire aanpassingstraject is onderhevig aan neerwaartse risico's, die voornamelijk verband houden met: i) het optimistische macro-economische scenario, en ii) het feit dat 2013 niet door het programma wordt bestreken. Het zou derhalve passend zijn indien Nederland de consolidatiemaatregelen zou specificeren die vanaf 2011 moeten worden getroffen om het tekort in 2013 tot minder dan 3% van het bbp terug te dringen. Nederland wordt verzocht nader aan te geven welke begrotingsstrategie zal worden gevolgd om het buitensporige tekort te verhelpen en de schuld terug te dringen, alsook de houdbaarheid van de overheidsfinanciën op lange termijn te verbeteren.

Bulgaria

The update of Bulgaria's convergence programme aims at maintaining a sound budgetary position reflected in balanced planned general government budgets, which is considered adequate at the current economic juncture and in view of the need to sustain the on-going adjustment of external imbalances. After reaching a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2009, the general government budget is projected to be balanced in 2010 and to stabilize at a surplus of 0.1% of GDP in 2011-2012. The overall fiscal stance appears restrictive in 2010, broadly neutral in 2011, and provides for some fiscal relaxation in 2012. The undertaken consolidation measures and the strong political commitment to fiscal discipline are expected to partially compensate the risks stemming from the slightly favourable assumptions on growth and revenue collection. The programme foresees ambitious structural reforms that aim to strengthen the sustainability of public finances and at the same time to underpin the economic recovery. Given the need to ensure sustainable convergence, Bulgaria is invited to continue pursuing strict fiscal policies as well as to implement the planned structural reforms.

Germany

After a balanced position in 2008, the general government budget turned negative in 2009, reaching -3.3% of GDP in the wake of the global economic crisis due to lower revenue and higher expenditure linked to the downturn as well as stimulus measures adopted in line with the EERP. The debt-to-GDP ratio surged to 72½% of GDP, also as a result of financial market stabilisation measures. Based on a slightly favourable macroeconomic scenario, the programme envisages a further increase in the general government deficit to 5½% of GDP in 2010, the start of budgetary consolidation in 2011 and a correction of the excessive deficit by 2013 in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009. However, budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected, given (i) the lack of specific consolidation measures beyond 2010, (ii) the need to reconcile the possible implementation of announced tax cuts with fiscal retrenchment, and (iii) the fact that implementation of the new budgetary rule also at sub-federal level is not ensured. Mounting debt, ad hoc changes to the pension formula and financing needs of the social security system underline the importance of safeguarding long-term sustainability. The budgetary strategy is not sufficient to bring the debt ratio back on a downward path. Invitations to Germany thus concern the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and to reduce debt, as well as the implementation of the new budgetary rule.

Estonia

The Estonian economy is currently emerging from a severe recession, which ended a period of years of above-potential growth and was aggravated by the global economic and financial crisis. The economy seems to have passed the trough in the second half of 2009 and positive quarterly growth emerged in the last quarter of the year, following seven consecutive quarters of contraction. However, average growth is projected to remain considerably lower over the medium term than in the upswing and peak years of the past cycle. The economic challenge is to restore sustainable growth while avoiding significant internal and external imbalances. The Estonian authorities implemented in 2009 a decisive consolidation of public finances, which contributed to the ongoing adjustment in the economy and has helped bring public finances in line with the expected lower growth. Looking ahead, after an estimated deficit of 2.6% of GDP in 2009, the programme targets a return to a headline budgetary surplus by 2013, while the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain low. The invitations to Estonia concern the attainment of set budgetary targets and further strengthening to the fiscal framework.

Ireland

Due to the interplay of a severe recession and significant consolidation efforts, the deficit widened further in 2009 but is now planned to stabilise in 2010, at 11.6% of GDP. Thereafter, the programme envisages a deficit reduction to below the 3% of GDP reference value by 2014 in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009. Debt would peak at 84% of GDP in 2012 and then start to decline. Deficit and debt outcomes could be worse than targeted mainly due to (i) the lack of specification of the consolidation measures after 2010; (ii) the programme's favourable macroeconomic outlook after 2010; and (iii) the risk of expenditure overruns. Continuing to implement a credible consolidation strategy, facilitated by a stronger budgetary framework, should foster a return to sustainable economic growth. There is also a need to regain competitiveness through productivity-enhancing measures and adequate wage policies, and to limit the increase in long-term unemployment. To improve the long-term sustainability of public finances, further pension reforms will be important. The invitations to Ireland concern the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit, and improvements to long-term sustainability and the fiscal framework.

Spain

The Stability Programme update of Spain reflects that the current crisis is severely affecting its public finances, with an estimated deficit of 11.4% of GDP for 2009 and a rapidly-rising government debt ratio. The Spanish update aims at sizeable continued fiscal consolidation from 2010 on, with a view to gradually reducing the government deficit to 3% of GDP by 2013 in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009. However, the favourable macroeconomic assumptions after 2010 may imply a lower contribution of economic growth to fiscal consolidation than envisaged and the adjustment path after 2010 would still need to be backed up with measures. Public debt, which stood at below 40% of GDP in 2008, is expected to grow to 55% of GDP in 2009 and swell further to 74% of GDP by 2013. Based on this assessment, the invitations to Spain refer to the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and reduce debt, improvements to long-term sustainability and the old-age pension scheme, the fiscal framework and the quality of public finances.

France

The French general government balance deteriorated sharply in 2009, reflecting the working of automatic stabilisers during the economic downturn as well as the impact of fiscal stimulus measures in line with the EERP. According to the programme update, the deficit would start decreasing in 2011 and would reach 3% of GDP in 2013. While this would be in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009, the assumptions underlying the programme scenario are assessed as rather optimistic and some expenditure-side measures are not specified. The strategy does not leave any safety margin if economic developments turn out worse than projected in the programme, which is considered to rely on markedly favourable macroeconomic assumptions (2½ % growth from 2011 onwards). The programme envisages the debt-to-GDP ratio to keep increasing until 2012, mainly on the back of the projected deficit path but also as a result of the issuance of a public loan to finance public investment. Against this background, the invitations to France concern the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and reduce debt.

Italy

Italy's stability programme plans a slight narrowing of the deficit-to-GDP ratio from 5.3% of GDP in 2009 to 5% in 2010, and further to below 3% by 2012, in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009. The adjustment relies on expenditure-containing measures adopted in 2008 and additional although unspecified consolidation efforts of 0.4 pp. of GDP in 2011 and a further 0.8 pp. in 2012. The already high debt ratio is projected to peak at 117% of GDP in 2010 and then decrease to below 115% of GDP in 2012. The deficit and debt ratios could be higher than targeted, considering (i) the programme's favourable macroeconomic assumptions, (ii) the lack of specification of measures underpinning the additional consolidation in 2011-2012 and (iii) the possibility of expenditure overruns. Key challenges are the implementation of the reform of the budgetary process and the rules governing fiscal federalism with a view to ensuring fiscal discipline and efficiency. Besides fiscal consolidation, a swift and durable recovery in productivity growth should be pursued to raise Italy’s growth potential. The invitations to Italy concern the c budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and reduce debt, and the implementation of the budgetary reform and rules governing fiscal federalism.

Austria

Austria's public finances deteriorated significantly in the wake of the global economic and financial crisis. As a result of the operation of the automatic stabilizers and a sizeable stimulus package adopted by the Austrian authorities, the general government deficit and debt reached 3.5% and 66.5% of GDP, respectively, in 2009. As the bulk of the measures aimed at combating the economic downturn are of permanent nature, there is a need for consolidation as from 2011. According to the latest update of the Stability Programme, the deficit will widen further to 4.7% of GDP in 2010 before gradually decreasing to just below 3% of GDP in 2013, in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009. However, budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected in the programme as the consolidation from 2011 onwards relies mostly on measures as yet unspecified. Many significant reforms to public expenditure have been undertaken in Austria in the recent past. Nevertheless, there is still room for improvement in areas such as health care and education. Substantial efficiency gains in these and other areas could be obtained by reforming the fiscal relations between the various layers of government. Accordingly, the invitations to Austria refer to the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and reduce debt, and improvements to the fiscal framework.

Slovakia

The programme envisages a sizeable, frontloaded fiscal consolidation with a view to bringing the deficit from 6.3% of GDP in 2010 to 3% of GDP by 2012, one year before the deadline of 2013 set by the Council on 2 December 2009. Nevertheless, the budgetary outcomes could turn out somewhat worse than projected in the programme, because they are based on favourable macroeconomic assumptions in 2011 and 2012. Moreover, some measures on the expenditure side may not yield the expected savings. The deterioration of public finances has also affected the long-term sustainability of government finances. The programme proposes a number of welcome measures to strengthen the current fiscal framework. Against this background, the invitations to Slovakia refer to backing up the consolidation path with specific measures, continuing reforms of the pension system, and further strengthening the fiscal framework.

Sweden

Large surpluses in good times allowed fiscal policy to play an active role in the downturn, not only by boosting demand in the short term but also by strengthening the economy's long-term growth potential. The fiscal stance outlined in the Swedish Programme update is appropriately continuing to be expansionary in 2010 with additional discretionary measures of about 1% of GDP contributing to a widening of the expected deficit to 3.4% of GDP. Thereafter, the deficit ratio is projected to gradually narrow to 2.1% of GDP in 2011 and 1.1% in 2012, albeit on the back of markedly favourable growth assumptions and without specifying consolidation measures over the programme period. A key challenge will be to avoid that a potentially rather job-anaemic recovery leads to permanently higher long-term unemployment and a permanent loss of labour supply. Another challenge for policy makers will be to carefully calibrate the withdrawal of stimulus measures so as to neither nip the recovery in the bud nor contribute to the build-up of potentially destabilising household-sector imbalances. Sweden is invited to ensure that the breach of the 3% deficit reference value in 2010 remains contained and temporary and to stand ready to adopt timely discretionary consolidation measures should budgetary outcomes fall short of expectations.

Finland

In response to the economic crisis and in line with the European Economic Recovery Plan, Finland provided a sizeable fiscal stimulus in 2009 and plans to maintain supportive fiscal policies also in 2010. Consequently, the general government balance has turned sharply into deficit, projected to temporarily exceed the 3%-of-GDP reference value set in the Stability and Growth Pact in 2010. The deficit is projected to gradually narrow to below the reference value thereafter, without specifying any consolidation measures.The programme relies on markedly favourable growth assumptions in the medium term. Therefore, budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected in the programme. The invitations to Finland refer to ensuring that the breach of the 3% deficit reference value in 2010 would remain contained and temporary, and to defining a medium term fiscal strategy with a view to restoring the long-term sustainability of public finances.

United Kingdom

Since the start of the economic crisis, the combination of the operation of automatic stabilisers, falls in asset prices and fiscal stimulus has provoked a considerable deterioration in UK public finances, with the general government deficit reaching 12.7% of GDP in the financial year 2009/10. The fiscal strategy outlined in the United Kingdom's convergence programme does not foresee the correction of the excessive deficit by the fiscal year 2014/15, as recommended by the Council on 2 December 2009. With the greater part of the projected reduction in the deficit in the medium term driven by the tight overall spending envelope between 2011/12 and 2014/15, the absence of detailed departmental spending limits is a source of uncertainty. The macroeconomic context may also be distinctly less favourable than envisaged throughout the programme period. The invitations to the United Kingdom refer to the need to avoid the deficit to increase further in 2010/11 and to strengthen the pace of medium-term consolidation in order to ensure that the deficit is brought below 3% of GDP by 2014/15 and the debt ratio is brought on a declining path.

De landenspecifieke aanbevelingen van de Commissie voor een advies van de Raad over elk programma zijn te vinden op:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/articles/sgp/2010-03-17-sgp_en.htm.

Belgium

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

1.0

-3.1

1.1

1.7

2.2

COM Nov 2009

1.0

-2.9

0.6

1.5

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

1.1

-3.1

0.4

1.9

2.4

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

4.5

0.0

1.5

1.7

1.8

COM Nov 2009

4.5

0.0

1.3

1.5

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

4.5

0.0

1.5

1.6

1.6

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

1.8

-2.4

-2.5

-2.2

-1.4

COM Nov 20092

1.7

-2.3

-2.8

-2.4

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

2.0

-2.3

-2.9

-2.3

-1.5

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Nov 2009

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.3

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

-1.6

-1.9

-2.1

-2.3

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

48.8

47.7

49.1

49.5

49.8

COM Nov 2009

48.8

47.7

48.0

48.2

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

48.7

47.9

48.1

48.5

49.2

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

50.0

53.7

53.9

53.6

52.8

COM Nov 2009

50.0

53.6

53.8

54.0

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

49.9

53.8

54.1

53.9

53.6

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.2

-5.9

-4.8

-4.1

-3.0

COM Nov 2009

-1.2

-5.9

-5.8

-5.8

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

-1.2

-5.9

-6.0

-5.5

-4.4

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.6

-2.3

-1.10

-0.4

0.8

COM Nov 2009

2.6

-2.0

-1.8

-1.7

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

2.5

-2.0

-1.9

-1.2

-0.1

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-2.2

-4.6

-3.4

-2.9

-2.2

COM Nov 2009

-2.1

-4.6

-4.3

-4.5

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

-2.3

-4.7

-4.4

-4.2

-3.6

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-2.2

-3.8

-3.4

-2.9

-2.2

COM Nov 2009

-2.2

-4.2

-4.4

-4.5

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

-2.3

-4.7

-4.4

-4.2

-3.6

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

89.8

97.9

100.6

101.4

100.6

COM Nov 2009

89.8

97.2

101.2

104.0

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

89.7

97.5

101.9

103.9

104.3

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 1.7%, 1.1%, 1.0% and 1.2% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.8% of GDP deficit increasing in 2009 according to the most recent programme; and 0.1% of GDP deficit-reducing in 2008 and 2010 and 0.5% of GDP deficit increasing in 2009 in the Commission services' November 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Bulgaria

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Jan 2010

6.0

-4.9

0.3

3.8

4.8

COM Nov 2009

6.0

-5.9

-1.1

3.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

6.5

4.7

5.2

5.8

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Jan 2010

12.0

2.5

2.4

2.8

2.8

COM Nov 2009

12.0

2.4

2.3

2.9

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

12.4

6.7

4.7

4.0

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Jan 2010

4.8

-3.5

-5.7

-4.7

-2.5

COM Nov 20092

6.0

-3.1

-6.0

-5.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

1.1

-0.7

-1.8

-1.4

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-24.6

-8.2

-4.1

-1.2

-0.5

COM Nov 2009

-22.1

-12.8

-8.7

-6.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-22.9

-20.7

-18.4

-16.6

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

39.1

37.5

39.2

39.6

39.1

COM Nov 2009

39.1

38.7

38.4

38.4

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

41.3

43.4

43.4

43.7

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

37.3

39.4

39.2

39.5

39.0

COM Nov 2009

37.3

39.5

39.5

38.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

38.3

40.4

40.4

40.7

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

1.8

-1.93

0.0

0.1

0.1

COM Nov 2009

1.8

-0.8

-1.2

-0.4

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

2.7

-1.3

0.9

1.0

1.1

COM Nov 2009

2.7

0.0

-0.3

0.5

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

0.2

-0.7

1.9

1.7

1.0

COM Nov 2009

-0.3

0.3

1.0

1.5

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

2.6

3.2

3.6

3.5

n.a.

Structural balance4

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

0.2

-0.7

1.9

1.7

1.0

COM Nov 2009

-0.3

0.3

1.0

1.5

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

2.6

3.2

3.6

3.5

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

14.1

14.7

14.6

14.5

14.4

COM Nov 2009

14.1

15.1

16.2

15.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

15.4

15.4

15.3

15.2

n.a.

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 3.4%, 3.1%, 2.9% and 3.0% respectively in the period 2009-2012.

3Eurostat is currently discussing with the Bulgarian statistical authorities the recording in national accounts of capital injections into Bulgarian energy companies, which could increase the government deficit in 2009 by 0.6% of GDP.

4Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. There are no one-off and other

temporary measures in the most recent programme and Commission services’ autumn forecast.

Source:

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Germany

Comparison of key macro-economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

1.3

-5.0

1.4

2

2

2

COM Nov 2009

1.3

-5.0

1.2

1.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

1.3

-2.3

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Nov 2009

2.8

0.3

0.8

1.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

3.2

-2.6

-2.1

-1.3

-1.1

-0.9

COM Nov 20092

3.0

-2.9

-2.6

-2.2

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

2.2

-0.9

-0.7

-0.7

-1.0

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

6.6

4.5

4.9

5

COM Nov 2009

6.6

4.0

3.8

3.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

7.1

7.0

7

7

7

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

43.7

44.4

42½

42

42

42

COM Nov 2009

43.7

44.6

43.3

42.9

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

44

43½

42½

42½

43

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

43.7

47.6

48

47

46

45

COM Nov 2009

43.7

48.0

48.3

47.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

44

46½

46½

45½

45½

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

0.0

-3.2

-5½

-4½

-3½

-3

COM Nov 2009

0.0

-3.4

-5.0

-4.6

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-0

-3

-4

-3

-2½

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.7

-0.6

-3

-2

½

COM Nov 2009

2.7

-0.6

-2.2

-1.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-0

-1

-0

½

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.6

-1.9

-4.4

-4.1

-3.1

-2.3

COM Nov 2009

-1.5

-1.9

-3.6

-3.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-1.2

-2.4

-3.5

-2.4

-2.1

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.2

-1.8

-4.4

-3.9

-3.0

-2.3

COM Nov 2009

-1.1

-1.9

-3.6

-3.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-0.8

-2.5

-3.4

-2.4

-2.1

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

65.9

72½

76½

79½

81

82

COM Nov 2009

65.9

73.1

76.7

79.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

65½

68½

70½

71½

72½

n.a.

Notes:

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.9% and 1.2% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.4% of GDP in 2008 and 0.1% of GDP in 2009 deficit-increasing according to the most recent programme and 0.3% of GDP in 2008 deficit-increasing according to Commission services' November 2009 forecast. There are no one-offs and other temporary measures for years 2010-2013 according to the most recent programme and for years 2009-2011 according to Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Estonia

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Jan 2010

-3.6

-14.5

-0.1

3.3

3.7

4.0

COM Nov 2009

-3.6

-13.7

-0.1

4.2

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-2.2

-3.5

2.6

4.8

5.0

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Jan 2010

10.6

0.2

0.4

1.9

2.3

2.7

COM Nov 2009

10.6

0.2

0.5

2.1

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

10.6

4.2

2.8

3.0

3.2

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Jan 2010

6.2

-8.8

-8.4

-5.7

-3.1

-0.5

COM Nov 20092

4.7

-9.4

-9.1

-5.4

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

0.9

-5.7

-5.9

-3.9

-1.7

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-8.4

6.9

8.5

6.3

2.9

-1.0

COM Nov 2009

-8.2

6.3

3.7

2.4

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-10.5

-5.1

-5.0

-4.7

-4.7

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

37.1

45.0

45.7

44.0

41.5

39.2

COM Nov 2009

37.1

41.9

43.5

42.4

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

36.2

38.9

37.8

36.5

35.2

n.a.

General government expenditure (% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

39.9

47.6

47.9

46.0

42.5

39.0

COM Nov 2009

39.9

44.8

46.7

45.4

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

38.2

40.6

38.8

36.4

35.0

n.a.

General government balance3

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-2.8

-2.6

-2.2

-2.0

-1.0

0.2

COM Nov 2009

-2.7

-3.0

-3.2

-3.0

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-1.9

-1.7

-1.0

0.1

0.2

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-2.5

-2.3

-2.0

-1.7

-0.6

0.7

COM Nov 2009

-2.5

-2.6

-2.6

-2.3

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-1.8

-1.5

-0.8

0.3

0.4

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-4.7

0.1

0.4

-0.3

-0.1

0.4

COM Nov 2009

-4.2

-0.1

-0.4

-1.3

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-2.2

0.0

0.8

1.3

0.7

n.a.

Structural balance4

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-4.7

-1.1

-1.5

-0.9

-0.1

0.4

COM Nov 2009

-4.4

-2.5

-2.4

-1.9

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-2.4

-0.1

0.4

1.2

0.7

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

4.6

7.8

10.1

13.0

14.2

14.3

COM Nov 2009

4.6

7.4

10.9

13.2

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.0

2.8

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 2.3%, -0.2%, -0.4% and 0.2% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3 Convergence Programme: ESA95 definition; Commission services: EDP definition.

4 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures amount to 1.2% of GDP in 2009, 1.9% of GDP in 2010 and 0.6% of GDP in 2011, overall deficit-reducing, according to the most recent programme and 0.2% of GDP in 2008, 2.4% of GDP in 2009, 2.0% of GDP in 2010 and 0.6% of GDP in 2011, overall deficit-reducing, according to the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

Source: 

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Ireland

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections1,2

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Dec 2009

n.a.

-7.5

-1.3

3.3

4.5

4.3

4.0

COM Nov 2009

-3.0

-7.5

-1.4

2.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-1.4

-4.0

-0.9

2.3

3.4

3.0

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Dec 2009

n.a.

-1.7

-1.2

1.0

1.7

1.8

1.8

COM Nov 2009

3.1

-1.5

-0.6

1.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

3.1

0.5

1.5

1.8

1.8

1.8

n.a.

Output gap3

(% of potential GDP)

SP Dec 2009

0.0

-7.0

-7.6

-4.6

-2.2

-0.6

0.1

COM Nov 20094

-0.1

-7.2

-7.8

-5.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

0.5

-3.5

-4.1

-3.4

-1.6

-0.5

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

n.a.

-2.0

0.6

1.2

1.6

1.6

1.3

COM Nov 2009

-5.1

-3.1

-1.8

-1.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-6.3

-4.2

-3.5

-3.4

-3.0

-2.8

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

34.8

34.2

35.2

35.5

36.3

36.7

37.1

COM Nov 2009

34.9

34.4

34.4

33.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

33.6

33.7

34.4

34.6

33.9

34.4

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

42.0

45.9

46.8

45.5

43.5

41.5

40.0

COM Nov 2009

42.0

46.9

49.1

48.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

39.9

43.3

43.4

41.0

38.7

37.0

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

-7.2

-11.7

-11.6

-10.0

-7.2

-4.9

-2.9

COM Nov 2009

-7.2

-12.5

-14.7

-14.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-6.3

-9.5

-9.0

-6.4

-4.8

-2.6

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

-6.1

-9.6

-8.8

-6.6

-3.4

-1

1

COM Nov 2009

-6.1

-10.2

-11.3

-10.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-5.2

-7.3

-6.4

-3.5

-1.7

0.7

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

-7.2

-8.9

-8.6

-8.2

-6.3

-4.7

-2.9

COM Nov 2009

-7.1

-9.6

-11.5

-12.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-6.5

-8.1

-7.4

-5.0

-4.1

-2.4

n.a.

Structural balance5

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

-6.4

-9.3

-9.2

-8.2

-6.3

-4.7

-2.9

COM Nov 2009

-7.1

-10.1

-11.5

-12.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-6.2

-8.1

-7.4

-5.0

-4.1

-2.4

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

n.a.

64.5

77.9

82.9

83.9

83.3

80.8

COM Nov 2009

44.1

65.8

82.9

96.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

40.6

52.7

62.3

65.7

66.2

64.5

n.a.

Notes:

 

1The Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast was prepared on a pre-budget basis.

2The figures reported as having been taken from the October 2008 stability programme actually refer to its January 2009 addendum.

3Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

4Based on estimated potential growth of 1.8%, -0.5%, -0.7% and 0.0% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

5Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.4% of GDP in 2009 and 0.6% in 2010 (both deficit-reducing) according to the most recent programme and 0.5% of GDP in 2009 (deficit-reducing) according to the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

 

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Spain

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Feb 2010

0.9

-3.6

-0.3

1.8

2.9

3.1

COM Nov 2009

0.9

-3.7

-0.8

1.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

1.2

-1.6

1.2

2.6

n.a.

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Feb 2010

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Nov 2009

4.1

-0.4

0.8

2.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Feb 2010

0.6

-3.5

-4.4

-3.2

-1.6

-0.2

COM Nov 2009

0.8

-2.8

-3.6

-2.6

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

0.8

-2.3

-3.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-9.1

-4.9

-4.2

-3.8

-3.6

-3.5

COM Nov 2009

-9.1

-4.5

-3.7

-3.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-9.2

-6.6

-5.8

-5.4

n.a.

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

37.0

34.6

35.7

36.7

37.5

38.3

COM Nov 2009

37.0

34.0

35.6

36.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

37.0

37.5

38.3

38.7

n.a.

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

41.1

46.1

45.5

44.2

42.8

41.3

COM Nov 2009

41.1

45.2

45.6

45.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

40.4

43.3

43.1

42.6

n.a.

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-4.1

-11.4

-9.8

-7.5

-5.3

-3.0

COM Nov 2009

-4.1

-11.2

-10.1

-9.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-3.4

-6.2

-5.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-2.5

-9.6

-7.7

-4.9

-2.3

0.1

COM Nov 2009

-2.5

-9.4

-7.6

-6.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-1.9

-4.1

-2.9

-1.9

n.a.

n.a

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-4.3

-9.9

-7.9

-6.1

-4.6

-2.9

COM Nov 2009

-4.4

-10.0

-8.5

-8.1

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-3.7

-5.2

-4.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Structural balance2

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-4.3

-9.9

-7.9

-6.1

-4.6

-2.9

COM Nov 2009

-4.1

-9.3

-8.5

-8.1

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-3.3

-4.6

-4.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

39.7

55.2

65.9

71.9

74.3

74.1

COM Nov 2009

39.7

54.3

66.3

74.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

39.5

47.3

51.6

53.7

n.a.

n.a.

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are n.a. according to the most recent programme and -0.3% of GDP in 2008 and -0.7% of GDP in 2009 in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

France

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projection

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Feb 2010

0.4

-2.25

1.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

COM Nov 2009

0.4

-2.2

1.2

1.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

1.0

0.2-0.5

2.0

2.5

2.5

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Feb 2010

3.2

0.1

1.3

1.6

1.75

1.75

COM Nov 2009

3.2

0.1

1.1

1.4

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

3.3

1.5

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Feb 2010

0.8

-2.9

-2.9

-2.1

-1.2

-0.4

COM Nov 20092

0.8

-2.5

-2.5

-2.4

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-0.6

-1.8

-1.6

-1.1

-0.4

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-3.3

-2.5

-2.8

-2.8

-2.7

-2.7

COM Nov 2009

-3.3

-2.3

-2.3

-2.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-3.4

-2.6

-2.5

-2.4

-2.4

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

49.3

47.7

47.6

48.6

49.1

49.8

COM Nov 2009

49.3

47.0

46.8

47.1

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

49.8

49.6

50.0

50.0

50.2

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

52.7

55.6

55.8

54.6

53.7

52.8

COM Nov 2009

52.7

55.2

55.1

54.8

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

52.7

53.5

52.7

52.0

51.3

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-3.4

-7.9

-8.2

-6.0

-4.6

-3.0

COM Nov 2009

-3.4

-8.3

-8.2

-7.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-2.9

-3.9

-2.7

-1.9

-1.1

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-0.6

-5.4

-5.5

-3.2

-1.7

-0.1

COM Nov 2009

-0.6

-5.5

-5.4

-4.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

0.0

-1.1

0.1

0.9

1.7

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-3.8

-6.5

-6.8

-4.9

-4.0

-2.8

COM Nov 2009

-3.8

-7.0

-7.0

-6.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-2.6

-3.0

-1.9

-1.4

-0.9

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-3.8

-6.5

-6.8

-4.9

-4.0

-2.8

COM Nov 2009

-3.9

-7.0

-6.6

-6.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-2.6

-3

-1.9

-1.4

-0.9

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

67.4

77.4

83.2

86.1

87.1

86.6

COM Nov 2009

67.4

76.1

82.5

87.6

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

66.7

69.1

69.4

68.5

66.8

n.a.

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 1.5%, 1.2%, 1.2% and 1.4% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0 all over the period covered (2008-2013) according to the most recent programme and 0.1% of GDP in 2008 deficit-reducing and 0.4% of GDP in 2010 deficit-increasing according to the Commission services' November 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Italy

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

-1.0

-4.8

1.1

2.0

2.0

COM Nov 2009

-1.0

-4.7

0.7

1.4

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

-0.6

-2.0

0.3

1.0

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

3.5

0.8

1.5

2.0

2.0

COM Nov 2009

3.5

0.8

1.8

2.0

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

3.5

1.2

1.7

2.0

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

1.1

-4.0

-3.5

-2.5

-1.6

COM Nov 20092

1.3

-3.6

-3.2

-2.5

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

0.3

-2.3

-2.7

-2.5

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-2.9

-1.8

-1.6

-1.3

-1.3

COM Nov 2009

-2.9

-2.3

-2.3

-2.3

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

-1.6

-1.3

-1.1

-0.9

n.a.

General government revenue3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

46.0

46.4

45.9

45.5

45.6

COM Nov 2009

46.0

46.3

45.5

45.4

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

46.4

46.8

46.8

46.4

n.a.

General government expenditure3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

48.8

51.7

50.9

49.9

49.5

COM Nov 2009

48.8

51.6

50.8

50.5

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

49.0

50.5

50.0

49.5

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-2.7

-5.3

-5.0

-3.9

-2.7

COM Nov 2009

-2.7

-5.3

-5.3

-5.1

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

-2.6

-3.7

-3.3

-2.9

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.4

-0.5

-0.1

1.3

2.7

COM Nov 2009

2.4

-0.5

-0.6

0.1

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

2.5

1.3

1.9

2.6

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-3.3

-3.2

-3.2

-2.7

-1.9

COM Nov 2009

-3.4

-3.5

-3.7

-3.8

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

-2.7

-2.6

-1.9

-1.6

n.a.

Structural balance4

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-3.5

-3.8

-3.3

-2.7

-1.9

COM Nov 2009

-3.6

-3.7

-3.7

-3.7

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

-2.9

-2.7

-2.0

-1.7

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

105.8

115.1

116.9

116.5

114.6

COM Nov 2009

105.8

114.6

116.7

117.8

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

105.9

110.5

112.0

111.6

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 0.4%, 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.7% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3 Budgetary data provided in the programme are trends based on unchanged legislation. In order to achieve the targeted general government balances, additional measures with a cumulative positive impact of 0.4% of GDP in 2011 and 1.2% in 2012 are envisaged.

4 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.2% of GDP in 2008, 0.6% in 2009 and 0.1% 2010; all deficit-reducing according to the most recent programme. In the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast one-off and other temporary measures are 0.2% of GDP in both 2008 and 2009 deficit-reducing; 0% in 2010, and 0.1% of GDP in 2011, deficit-increasing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

The Netherlands

Comparison of key macro-economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

2.0

-4

1.5

2

2

COM Nov 2009

2.0

-4.5

0.3

1.6

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

2

2

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

2.2

1

1

1

1

COM Nov 2009

2.2

1.1

0.9

1.2

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

2

2

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.6

-2.7

-2.3

-1.9

-1.8

COM Nov 20092

3.0

-2.7

-3.1

-2.4

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

0.7

-0.1

-0.5

-0.6

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

4.2

COM Nov 2009

3.9

2.7

2.7

3.6

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

8.5

9.5

7.5

8.0

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

45.6

44.4

44.3

44.9

45.5

COM Nov 2009

46.6

44.8

44.8

45.1

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

46.6

46.3

46.1

46.3

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

44.9

49.3

50.4

49.9

50.0

COM Nov 2009

45.9

49.5

50.9

50.7

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

45.4

45.1

45.3

45.2

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

0.7

-4.9

-6.1

-5.0

-4.5

COM Nov 2009

0.7

-4.7

-6.1

-5.6

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

1.2

1.2

0.8

1.1

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.8

-2.5

-3.7

-2.6

-2.0

COM Nov 2009

2.8

-2.3

-3.7

-3.1

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

3.4

3.3

2.9

3.1

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-0.8

-3.4

-4.8

-3.9

-3.5

COM Nov 2009

-1.0

-3.2

-4.4

-4.3

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

0.8

1.3

1.1

1.5

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-0.6

-3.8

-4.8

-3.9

-3.5

COM Nov 2009

-1.0

-3.6

-4.4

-4.3

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.5

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

58.2

62.3

67.2

69.6

72.5

COM Nov 2009

58.2

59.8

65.6

69.7

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

42.1

39.6

38.0

36.2

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 1.7%, 1.1%, 0.7% and 0.9% respectively in the period 2008-2011

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.4% of GDP in 2009, deficit-reducing, according to both the most recent programme and the Commission services' November 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Austria

Comparison of key macro-economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

2.0

-3.4

1.5

1.5

1.9

2.0

COM Nov 2009

2.0

-3.7

1.1

1.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

1.8

-2.2

0.5

1.5

2.0

2.3

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

3.2

0.4

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.9

COM Nov 2009

3.2

0.5

1.3

1.6

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

3.2

0.6

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.9

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.8

-1.8

-1.6

-1.5

-1.3

-1.0

COM Nov 20092

2.8

-2.2

-2.6

-2.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

2.6

-0.9

-1.7

-1.6

-1.2

-0.5

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

3.2

2.3

2.4

2.7

2.8

2.9

COM Nov 2009

3.6

1.4

1.3

1.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

2.9

1.6

0.6

1.0

1.3

1.4

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

48.4

48.0

46.9

46.8

46.9

46.9

COM Nov 2009

48.4

47.9

47.1

47.1

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

48.2

47.5

46.5

46.4

46.1

46.1

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

48.9

51.5

51.6

50.9

50.2

49.7

COM Nov 2009

48.9

52.3

52.6

52.4

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

48.7

51.1

51.3

51.1

50.9

50.1

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-0.4

-3.5

-4.7

-4.0

-3.3

-2.7

COM Nov 2009

-0.4

-4.3

-5.5

-5.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

-0.4

-3.5

-4.7

-4.7

-4.7

-3.9

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.2

-0.7

-1.8

-1.2

-0.4

0.2

COM Nov 2009

2.1

-1.4

-2.5

-2.1

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

2.2

-0.6

-1.7

-1.4

-1.3

-0.4

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.7

-2.7

-3.9

-3.3

-2.7

-2.2

COM Nov 2009

-1.8

-3.3

-4.3

-4.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

-1.6

-3.1

-3.9

-4.0

-4.1

-3.7

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.7

-2.7

-3.9

-3.3

-2.7

-2.2

COM Nov 2009

-1.8

-3.3

-4.3

-4.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

-1.6

-3.1

-3.9

-4

-4.1

-3.7

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

62.6

66.5

70.2

72.6

73.8

74.3

COM Nov 2009

62.6

69.1

73.9

77.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

62.5

68.5

73.0

75.7

77.7

78.5

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 1.7%, 1.2%,1.4% and 1.6% respectively in the period 2008-2011

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. There are no one-offs and other temporary measures in the most recent programme and Commission services' November 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Slovakia

Comparison of key macro-economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

6.4

-5.7

1.9

4.1

5.4

COM Nov 2009

6.4

-5.8

1.9

2.6

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

6.4

2.4

3.6

4.5

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

3.9

1.2

2.6

3.7

4.1

COM Nov 2009

3.9

1.1

1.9

2.5

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

3.9

2.2

3.6

4.1

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

8.9

-1.1

-2.9

-3.0

-1.0

COM Nov 20092

9.2

-0.8

-2.1

-3.0

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

6.5

3.5

1.7

1.0

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-5.3

-4.2

-3.2

-2.7

-1.9

COM Nov 2009

-5.6

-4.8

-4.3

-4.2

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

-5.8

-4.2

-2.9

-2.6

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

32.5

32.8

32.5

32.3

31.7

COM Nov 2009

32.5

31.3

31.4

31.4

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

33.4

32.1

31.6

31.8

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

34.8

39.1

38.0

36.5

34.7

COM Nov 2009

34.8

37.5

37.5

36.9

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

35.6

35.1

34.5

34.1

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-2.3

-6.3

-5.5

-4.2

-3.0

COM Nov 2009

-2.3

-6.3

-6.0

-5.5

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

-2.2

-3.0

-2.9

-2.2

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.1

-4.5

-3.6

-2.3

-1.1

COM Nov 2009

-1.1

-5.0

-4.7

-4.1

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

-0.9

-1.7

-1.7

-1.0

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-4.9

-6.0

-4.7

-3.3

-2.7

COM Nov 2009

-5.0

-6.0

-5.4

-4.6

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

-4.1

-4.0

-3.4

-2.5

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-4.2

-6.0

-4.7

-3.3

-2.7

COM Nov 2009

-5.2

-6.2

-5.4

-4.6

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

-3.8

-4.4

-3.5

-2.6

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

27.7

37.1

40.8

42.5

42.2

COM Nov 2009

27.7

34.6

39.2

42.7

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

27.6

31.4

32.7

32.7

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 4.7%, 3.6%, 3.2% and 3.6% respectively in the period 2008-2011

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.7% of GDP in 2008, deficit-increasing, according to the most recent programme and 0.2% of GDP in both 2008 and 2009, both deficit-reducing, in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Sweden

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Jan 2010

-0.2

-5.2

0.6

3.1

3.8

COM Nov 2009

-0.2

-4.6

1.4

2.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

1.5

1.3

3.1

3.5

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Jan 2010

2.1

2.0

0.4

0.6

0.9

COM Nov 2009

3.3

1.9

1.7

1.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.6

1.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Jan 2010

1.7

-4.1

-3.6

-1.3

1.5

COM Nov 20092

0.9

-4.5

-4.1

-3.3

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-0.5

-1.6

-1.0

-0.2

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

7.8

7.2

7.1

7.4

7.4

COM Nov 2009

8.1

7.6

7.7

8.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

8.2

8.2

8.3

8.1

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

55.6

54.9

54.6

54.3

53.9

COM Nov 2009

55.6

53.8

52.3

52.0

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

55.4

54.1

53.8

53.3

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

53.1

57.1

58.0

56.3

54.9

COM Nov 2009

53.1

55.9

55.6

54.6

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

52.5

53.1

52.2

50.8

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

2.5

-2.2

-3.4

-2.1

-1.1

COM Nov 2009

2.5

-2.1

-3.3

-2.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

2.8

1.1

1.6

2.5

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

4.2

-0.9

-2.2

-0.8

0.4

COM Nov 2009

4.2

-0.8

-2.1

-1.4

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-4.7

-2.6

-3.0

-3.8

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

1.5

0.2

-1.3

-1.4

-2.0

COM Nov 2009

1.9

0.5

-1.0

-0.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.1

2.0

2.2

2.6

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

1.2

0.3

-1.3

-1.5

-2.1

COM Nov 2009

1.6

0.3

-1.0

-0.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

2.8

1.9

2.1

2.5

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

38.0

42.8

45.5

45.6

45.2

COM Nov 2009

38.0

42.1

43.6

44.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

35.5

32.2

28.3

23.8

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 2.0%, 0.9%, 0.9% and 1.3% respectively in the period 2008-2011

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.3% of GDP in 2008 and 0.1% in both 2011and 2012, all deficit-reducing, and 0.1% of GDP in 2009, deficit increasing, according to the most recent programme and 0.3% of GDP in 2008 and 0.2% of GDP in 2009, all deficit-reducing, in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Finland

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Real GDP

(% change)
SP Feb 2010 1.0 -7.6 0.7 2.4 3.5 3.0

COM Nov 2009 1.0 -6.9 0.9 1.6 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 2.6 0.6 1.8 2.4 2.2 n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)
SP Feb 2010 3.9 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.0

COM Nov 2009 3.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 n.a. n.a.

SP Oct 2008 4.0 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)
SP Feb 2010 3.7 -5.0 -5.0 -4.0 -2.2 -1.2

COM Nov 20092 3.5 -4.5 -4.3 -3.8 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 1.3 -0.6 -1.0 -1.2 n.a. n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 2.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0

COM Nov 2009 3.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.9 n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 53.4 53.1 52.6 53.4 53.2 52.8

COM Nov 2009 53.4 51.5 50.5 50.6 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 51.4 50.3 49.7 49.4 49.4 n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 49.0 55.3 56.2 56.4 55.5 54.7

COM Nov 2009 48.9 54.3 55.0 55.0 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 47.0 48.2 48.6 48.4 48.5 n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 4.4 -2.2 -3.6 -3.0 -2.3 -1.9

COM Nov 2009 4.5 -2.8 -4.5 -4.3 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 4.4 2.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 5.9 -0.8 -2.3 -1.2 -0.2 0.4

COM Nov 2009 5.9 -1.4 -3.1 -2.9 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 5.4 4.0 3.3 2.8 2.4 n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 2.6 0.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3

COM Nov 2009 2.7 -0.5 -2.3 -2.4 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 3.7 2.4 1.7 1.6 n.a. n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP) SP Feb 2010 2.6 0.3 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3

COM Nov 2009 2.7 -0.5 -2.2 -2.4 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 3.7 2.4 1.7 1.6 n.a. n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 34.2 41.8 48.3 52.2 54.4 56.4

COM Nov 2009 34.1 41.3 47.4 52.7 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 32.4 33.0 33.7 34.1 34.6 n.a.

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 2.1%, 1.0%, 0.7% and 1.1% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures concern only 2010 when they amount to 0.2% of GDP and are deficit-increasing according to both the most recent programme and the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

               

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

United Kingdom

Overview of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Jan 2010

-1.3

-3.5

2.0

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

COM Nov 2009

0.6

-4.6

0.9

1.9

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-0.3

-0.5

2.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Jan 2010

3.8

2.3

2.0

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

COM Nov 2009

3.6

2.0

1.4

1.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.8

1.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Jan 2010

0.0

-4.6

-4.4

-2.8

-1.5

-0.4

0.5

COM Nov 20092

0.4

-3.7

-3.5

-2.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-0.5

-2.4

-2.1

-1.2

-0.4

0.2

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)
3

CP Jan 2010

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Nov 2009

-1.4

-2.2

-1.4

-0.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 20104

36.6

34.8

35.4

36.7

37.1

37.2

37.1

COM Nov 2009

41.9

38.4

39.2

39.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

36.7

35.5

36.6

37.3

37.7

38.0

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 20104

43.4

47.4

47.4

45.8

44.2

42.7

41.5

COM Nov 2009

49.0

51.2

51.5

50.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

42.2

43.7

43.7

42.9

42.1

41.4

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-6.9

-12.7

-12.1

-9.2

-7.4

-5.6

-4.7

COM Nov 2009

-6.9

-13.0

-12.5

-10.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-5.5

-8.2

-7.1

-5.6

-4.4

-3.4

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-4.7

-10.5

-9.1

-5.7

-3.7

-1.8

-0.9

COM Nov 2009

-4.8

-11.0

-9.6

-7.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-3.4

-6.4

-4.5

-2.6

-1.4

-0.3

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-6.9

-10.8

-10.3

-8.0

-6.8

-5.5

-4.9

COM Nov 2009

-7.1

-11.5

-11.0

-9.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-5.3

-7.2

-6.2

-5.1

-4.2

-3.5

n.a.

Structural balance5

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-6.2

-10.5

-10.3

-8.0

-6.8

-5.5

-4.9

COM Nov 2009

-6.3

-11.4

-11.0

-9.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-5.3

-7.2

-6.2

-5.1

-4.2

-3.5

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

55.5

72.9

82.1

88.0

90.9

91.6

91.2

COM Nov 2009

55.5

71.7

81.9

89.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

52.9

60.5

65.1

67.5

68.6

68.5

n.a.

Notes:

 

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 1.5%, 0.8%, 0.8% and 1.1% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3 Data for calendar years.

4 Data for revenue and expenditure are not provided in the UK programme on a harmonised ESA95 basis for the general government sector. The data in the table are based on Table 2.7 of the supplementary material of the 2009 Pre-Budget Report. For the years between 2011/12 and 2014/15, general government revenue and expenditure figures are inferred from projections for the public sector.

5 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are estimated at 0.7% of GDP in 2008/09 and 0.3% of GDP in 2009/10 (deficit-increasing) on the basis of information in the most recent programme.

Source:

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services' autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services' calculations

1 :

Overeenkomstig Verordening (EG) nr. 1466/97 van de Raad over versterking van het toezicht op begrotingssituaties en het toezicht op en de coördinatie van het economisch beleid moeten de lidstaten elk jaar met geactualiseerde macro-economische en budgettaire prognoses komen. Zulke actualiseringen heten stabiliteitsprogramma's bij landen die de euro al hebben ingevoerd, en convergentieprogramma's bij landen die dat nog niet hebben gedaan. De genoemde verordening wordt ook wel het "preventieve deel" van het stabiliteits- en groeipact genoemd.

2 :

Het op 26 november 2008 door de Commissie voorgesteld Europees economisch herstelplan is op 11 december 2008 door de Europese Raad onderschreven.


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