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La Commissione valuta i programmi di stabilità e convergenza di quattordici Stati membri dell’UE

European Commission - IP/10/288   17/03/2010

Other available languages: EN FR DE ES NL SV FI ET SK BG

IP/10/288

Brussels, 17 Mazo 2010

La Commissione valuta i programmi di stabilità e convergenza di quattordici Stati membri dell’UE

In data odierna la Commissione europea ha esaminato i programmi di stabilità e di convergenza1 di Belgio, Bulgaria, Germania, Estonia, Irlanda, Spagna, Francia, Italia, Paesi Bassi, Austria, Slovacchia, Svezia, Finlandia e Regno Unito. Le valutazioni devono essere effettuate alla luce della grave crisi economia e finanziaria che ha avuto pesanti ripercussioni sulle finanze pubbliche. A seguito del funzionamento degli stabilizzatori automatici e dell’introduzione di misure di stimolo discrezionali per far fronte a condizioni economiche eccezionali in linea con il piano europeo di ripresa economica2, la stragrande maggioranza degli Stati membri si trova ora soggetta alla procedura per i disavanzi eccessivi avviata con le relative decisioni adottate dal Consiglio nel 2009. Tra i paesi valutati, solo la Bulgaria e l’Estonia prevedono di mantenere il disavanzo pubblico al di sotto del valore di riferimento del 3% del PIL fissato dal patto di stabilità e crescita nel periodo di riferimento del programma. Nel complesso, per la maggioranza dei quattordici programmi, le ipotesi di crescita che sottendono le proiezioni di bilancio sono piuttosto ottimistiche, il che implica che i risultati di bilancio potrebbero essere peggiori dell’obiettivo fissato. Inoltre, in molti casi, la strategia di risanamento del bilancio non è adeguatamente sostenuta da misure concrete per il 2011 e oltre.

I programmi valutati oggi sono contraddistinti da due pietre miliari: le misure di stimolo messe in atto per scongiurare una spirale di recessione economica e la strategia di uscita in termini di bilancio concordata alla fine dello scorso anno. Secondo la nostra valutazione la strategia di uscita concordata dal Consiglio viene applicata: nel complesso il 2010 permarrà un anno di stimolo, seguito da ambiziosi sforzi di risanamento nel 2011. I principali rischi che pesano sul risanamento derivano da ipotesi macroeconomiche relativamente ottimistiche e dalla mancanza di precisazioni sulle misure di risanamento" ha dichiarato il commissario agli Affari economici e monetaria Olli Rehn.

Italia

Il programma di stabilità dell’Italia prevede una riduzione marginale del rapporto disavanzo/PIL dal 5,4% nel 2009 al 5% del PIL nel 2010, e un ulteriore calo sotto il 3% entro il 2012, in linea con la raccomandazione del Consiglio del 2 dicembre 2009. L’aggiustamento si basa sulle misure di contenimento della spesa adottate nel 2008 e su sforzi di risanamento aggiuntivi non specificati pari a 0,4 punti percentuali del PIL nel 2011 e ad ulteriori 0,8 punti percentuali nel 2012. Il già elevato rapporto debito/PIL dovrebbe raggiungere un massimo del 117% del PIL nel 2010 e poi scendere al di sotto del 115% del PIL nel 2012. Il rapporto disavanzo/PIL e quello debito/PIL potrebbero essere superiori agli obiettivi fissati se si considerano i) le ipotesi macroeconomiche favorevoli alla base del programma, ii) la mancanza di specifiche misure di sostegno all’ulteriore risanamento nel 2011‑2012 e iii) la possibilità di eccedenze di spesa. Le sfide più importanti sono l’applicazione della riforma della procedura di bilancio e delle norme sul federalismo fiscale al fine di assicurare la disciplina e l’efficienza di bilancio. Oltre al risanamento del bilancio, occorre perseguire una ripresa rapida e duratura della crescita della produttività in modo da accrescere il potenziale di crescita dell’Italia. Le raccomandazioni rivolte all’Italia riguardano la strategia di bilancio per correggere il disavanzo eccessivo e ridurre il debito e l’attuazione della riforma di bilancio e delle norme sul federalismo fiscale.

Belgium

After expansion in 2009 in line with the EERP, the Belgian stability programme plans a restrictive budgetary stance as from 2010, which would lead to a correction of the excessive deficit by 2012, in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009. The government gross debt-to-GDP ratio which rose in 2008 and 2009 (to 98%), is expected to continue its upward movement up to 2011 and start declining again in 2012. However, the budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected, in particular as from 2011. First, the measures underpinning the target for 2011 are only partly specified and there are no measures specified for 2012. In addition, the macroeconomic assumptions are slightly favourable. The Belgian government committed in the programme to take the necessary additional measures if economic growth is insufficient to achieve the 3% of GDP deficit target in 2012. The invitations to Belgium concern the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and reduce debt, and improvements to long-term sustainability and the fiscal framework.

Bulgaria

The update of Bulgaria's convergence programme aims at maintaining a sound budgetary position reflected in balanced planned general government budgets, which is considered adequate at the current economic juncture and in view of the need to sustain the on-going adjustment of external imbalances. After reaching a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2009, the general government budget is projected to be balanced in 2010 and to stabilize at a surplus of 0.1% of GDP in 2011-2012. The overall fiscal stance appears restrictive in 2010, broadly neutral in 2011, and provides for some fiscal relaxation in 2012. The undertaken consolidation measures and the strong political commitment to fiscal discipline are expected to partially compensate the risks stemming from the slightly favourable assumptions on growth and revenue collection. The programme foresees ambitious structural reforms that aim to strengthen the sustainability of public finances and at the same time to underpin the economic recovery. Given the need to ensure sustainable convergence, Bulgaria is invited to continue pursuing strict fiscal policies as well as to implement the planned structural reforms.

Germany

After a balanced position in 2008, the general government budget turned negative in 2009, reaching -3.3% of GDP in the wake of the global economic crisis due to lower revenue and higher expenditure linked to the downturn as well as stimulus measures adopted in line with the EERP. The debt-to-GDP ratio surged to 72½% of GDP, also as a result of financial market stabilisation measures. Based on a slightly favourable macroeconomic scenario, the programme envisages a further increase in the general government deficit to 5½% of GDP in 2010, the start of budgetary consolidation in 2011 and a correction of the excessive deficit by 2013 in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009. However, budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected, given (i) the lack of specific consolidation measures beyond 2010, (ii) the need to reconcile the possible implementation of announced tax cuts with fiscal retrenchment, and (iii) the fact that implementation of the new budgetary rule also at sub-federal level is not ensured. Mounting debt, ad hoc changes to the pension formula and financing needs of the social security system underline the importance of safeguarding long-term sustainability. The budgetary strategy is not sufficient to bring the debt ratio back on a downward path. Invitations to Germany thus concern the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and to reduce debt, as well as the implementation of the new budgetary rule.

Estonia

The Estonian economy is currently emerging from a severe recession, which ended a period of years of above-potential growth and was aggravated by the global economic and financial crisis. The economy seems to have passed the trough in the second half of 2009 and positive quarterly growth emerged in the last quarter of the year, following seven consecutive quarters of contraction. However, average growth is projected to remain considerably lower over the medium term than in the upswing and peak years of the past cycle. The economic challenge is to restore sustainable growth while avoiding significant internal and external imbalances. The Estonian authorities implemented in 2009 a decisive consolidation of public finances, which contributed to the ongoing adjustment in the economy and has helped bring public finances in line with the expected lower growth. Looking ahead, after an estimated deficit of 2.6% of GDP in 2009, the programme targets a return to a headline budgetary surplus by 2013, while the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain low. The invitations to Estonia concern the attainment of set budgetary targets and further strengthening to the fiscal framework.

Ireland

Due to the interplay of a severe recession and significant consolidation efforts, the deficit widened further in 2009 but is now planned to stabilise in 2010, at 11.6% of GDP. Thereafter, the programme envisages a deficit reduction to below the 3% of GDP reference value by 2014 in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009. Debt would peak at 84% of GDP in 2012 and then start to decline. Deficit and debt outcomes could be worse than targeted mainly due to (i) the lack of specification of the consolidation measures after 2010; (ii) the programme's favourable macroeconomic outlook after 2010; and (iii) the risk of expenditure overruns. Continuing to implement a credible consolidation strategy, facilitated by a stronger budgetary framework, should foster a return to sustainable economic growth. There is also a need to regain competitiveness through productivity-enhancing measures and adequate wage policies, and to limit the increase in long-term unemployment. To improve the long-term sustainability of public finances, further pension reforms will be important. The invitations to Ireland concern the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit, and improvements to long-term sustainability and the fiscal framework.

Spain

The Stability Programme update of Spain reflects that the current crisis is severely affecting its public finances, with an estimated deficit of 11.4% of GDP for 2009 and a rapidly-rising government debt ratio. The Spanish update aims at sizeable continued fiscal consolidation from 2010 on, with a view to gradually reducing the government deficit to 3% of GDP by 2013 in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009. However, the favourable macroeconomic assumptions after 2010 may imply a lower contribution of economic growth to fiscal consolidation than envisaged and the adjustment path after 2010 would still need to be backed up with measures. Public debt, which stood at below 40% of GDP in 2008, is expected to grow to 55% of GDP in 2009 and swell further to 74% of GDP by 2013. Based on this assessment, the invitations to Spain refer to the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and reduce debt, improvements to long-term sustainability and the old-age pension scheme, the fiscal framework and the quality of public finances.

France

The French general government balance deteriorated sharply in 2009, reflecting the working of automatic stabilisers during the economic downturn as well as the impact of fiscal stimulus measures in line with the EERP. According to the programme update, the deficit would start decreasing in 2011 and would reach 3% of GDP in 2013. While this would be in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009, the assumptions underlying the programme scenario are assessed as rather optimistic and some expenditure-side measures are not specified. The strategy does not leave any safety margin if economic developments turn out worse than projected in the programme, which is considered to rely on markedly favourable macroeconomic assumptions (2½ % growth from 2011 onwards). The programme envisages the debt-to-GDP ratio to keep increasing until 2012, mainly on the back of the projected deficit path but also as a result of the issuance of a public loan to finance public investment. Against this background, the invitations to France concern the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and reduce debt.

The Netherlands

After the strong budgetary deterioration in 2009 following the sharp economic contraction, the Dutch stability programme foresees a gradual decline in the deficit in 2011 and 2012. However, the deficit is projected to remain above the 3% of GDP threshold to the end year (2012) of the programme. 2013, the year by which according to the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009 the excessive deficit should be corrected, is not included in the programme. The debt ratio, which breached the 60% of GDP Treaty reference value in 2009, is set to increase substantially over the programme horizon. The programme's budgetary adjustment path is subject to downside risks, mainly linked to (i) the favourable macroeconomic scenario and (ii) the fact that 2013 is not covered by the programme. Therefore, it would be appropriate for the Netherlands to identify the consolidation measures from 2011 onwards to bring the deficit below 3% of GDP by 2013. The invitations to the Netherlands concern the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and reduce debt, and improvements to long-term sustainability.

Austria

Austria's public finances deteriorated significantly in the wake of the global economic and financial crisis. As a result of the operation of the automatic stabilizers and a sizeable stimulus package adopted by the Austrian authorities, the general government deficit and debt reached 3.5% and 66.5% of GDP, respectively, in 2009. As the bulk of the measures aimed at combating the economic downturn are of permanent nature, there is a need for consolidation as from 2011.

According to the latest update of the Stability Programme, the deficit will widen further to 4.7% of GDP in 2010 before gradually decreasing to just below 3% of GDP in 2013, in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December 2009. However, budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected in the programme as the consolidation from 2011 onwards relies mostly on measures as yet unspecified. Many significant reforms to public expenditure have been undertaken in Austria in the recent past. Nevertheless, there is still room for improvement in areas such as health care and education. Substantial efficiency gains in these and other areas could be obtained by reforming the fiscal relations between the various layers of government. Accordingly, the invitations to Austria refer to the specification of the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and reduce debt, and improvements to the fiscal framework.

Slovakia

The programme envisages a sizeable, frontloaded fiscal consolidation with a view to bringing the deficit from 6.3% of GDP in 2010 to 3% of GDP by 2012, one year before the deadline of 2013 set by the Council on 2 December 2009. Nevertheless, the budgetary outcomes could turn out somewhat worse than projected in the programme, because they are based on favourable macroeconomic assumptions in 2011 and 2012. Moreover, some measures on the expenditure side may not yield the expected savings. The deterioration of public finances has also affected the long-term sustainability of government finances. The programme proposes a number of welcome measures to strengthen the current fiscal framework. Against this background, the invitations to Slovakia refer to backing up the consolidation path with specific measures, continuing reforms of the pension system, and further strengthening the fiscal framework.

Sweden

Large surpluses in good times allowed fiscal policy to play an active role in the downturn, not only by boosting demand in the short term but also by strengthening the economy's long-term growth potential. The fiscal stance outlined in the Swedish Programme update is appropriately continuing to be expansionary in 2010 with additional discretionary measures of about 1% of GDP contributing to a widening of the expected deficit to 3.4% of GDP. Thereafter, the deficit ratio is projected to gradually narrow to 2.1% of GDP in 2011 and 1.1% in 2012, albeit on the back of markedly favourable growth assumptions and without specifying consolidation measures over the programme period. A key challenge will be to avoid that a potentially rather job-anaemic recovery leads to permanently higher long-term unemployment and a permanent loss of labour supply. Another challenge for policy makers will be to carefully calibrate the withdrawal of stimulus measures so as to neither nip the recovery in the bud nor contribute to the build-up of potentially destabilising household-sector imbalances. Sweden is invited to ensure that the breach of the 3% deficit reference value in 2010 remains contained and temporary and to stand ready to adopt timely discretionary consolidation measures should budgetary outcomes fall short of expectations.

Finland

In response to the economic crisis and in line with the European Economic Recovery Plan, Finland provided a sizeable fiscal stimulus in 2009 and plans to maintain supportive fiscal policies also in 2010. Consequently, the general government balance has turned sharply into deficit, projected to temporarily exceed the 3%-of-GDP reference value set in the Stability and Growth Pact in 2010. The deficit is projected to gradually narrow to below the reference value thereafter, without specifying any consolidation measures.The programme relies on markedly favourable growth assumptions in the medium term. Therefore, budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected in the programme. The invitations to Finland refer to ensuring that the breach of the 3% deficit reference value in 2010 would remain contained and temporary, and to defining a medium term fiscal strategy with a view to restoring the long-term sustainability of public finances.

United Kingdom

Since the start of the economic crisis, the combination of the operation of automatic stabilisers, falls in asset prices and fiscal stimulus has provoked a considerable deterioration in UK public finances, with the general government deficit reaching 12.7% of GDP in the financial year 2009/10. The fiscal strategy outlined in the United Kingdom's convergence programme does not foresee the correction of the excessive deficit by the fiscal year 2014/15, as recommended by the Council on 2 December 2009. With the greater part of the projected reduction in the deficit in the medium term driven by the tight overall spending envelope between 2011/12 and 2014/15, the absence of detailed departmental spending limits is a source of uncertainty. The macroeconomic context may also be distinctly less favourable than envisaged throughout the programme period. The invitations to the United Kingdom refer to the need to avoid the deficit to increase further in 2010/11 and to strengthen the pace of medium-term consolidation in order to ensure that the deficit is brought below 3% of GDP by 2014/15 and the debt ratio is brought on a declining path.

Le raccomandazioni emesse dalla Commissione per ogni paese in vista di un parere del Consiglio su ogni programma sono disponibili all’indirizzo:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/articles/sgp/2010-03-17-sgp_en.htm.

Belgium

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

1.0

-3.1

1.1

1.7

2.2

COM Nov 2009

1.0

-2.9

0.6

1.5

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

1.1

-3.1

0.4

1.9

2.4

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

4.5

0.0

1.5

1.7

1.8

COM Nov 2009

4.5

0.0

1.3

1.5

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

4.5

0.0

1.5

1.6

1.6

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

1.8

-2.4

-2.5

-2.2

-1.4

COM Nov 20092

1.7

-2.3

-2.8

-2.4

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

2.0

-2.3

-2.9

-2.3

-1.5

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Nov 2009

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.3

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

-1.6

-1.9

-2.1

-2.3

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

48.8

47.7

49.1

49.5

49.8

COM Nov 2009

48.8

47.7

48.0

48.2

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

48.7

47.9

48.1

48.5

49.2

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

50.0

53.7

53.9

53.6

52.8

COM Nov 2009

50.0

53.6

53.8

54.0

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

49.9

53.8

54.1

53.9

53.6

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.2

-5.9

-4.8

-4.1

-3.0

COM Nov 2009

-1.2

-5.9

-5.8

-5.8

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

-1.2

-5.9

-6.0

-5.5

-4.4

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.6

-2.3

-1.10

-0.4

0.8

COM Nov 2009

2.6

-2.0

-1.8

-1.7

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

2.5

-2.0

-1.9

-1.2

-0.1

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-2.2

-4.6

-3.4

-2.9

-2.2

COM Nov 2009

-2.1

-4.6

-4.3

-4.5

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

-2.3

-4.7

-4.4

-4.2

-3.6

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-2.2

-3.8

-3.4

-2.9

-2.2

COM Nov 2009

-2.2

-4.2

-4.4

-4.5

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

-2.3

-4.7

-4.4

-4.2

-3.6

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

89.8

97.9

100.6

101.4

100.6

COM Nov 2009

89.8

97.2

101.2

104.0

n.a.

SP Sep 2009

89.7

97.5

101.9

103.9

104.3

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 1.7%, 1.1%, 1.0% and 1.2% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.8% of GDP deficit increasing in 2009 according to the most recent programme; and 0.1% of GDP deficit-reducing in 2008 and 2010 and 0.5% of GDP deficit increasing in 2009 in the Commission services' November 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Bulgaria

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Jan 2010

6.0

-4.9

0.3

3.8

4.8

COM Nov 2009

6.0

-5.9

-1.1

3.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

6.5

4.7

5.2

5.8

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Jan 2010

12.0

2.5

2.4

2.8

2.8

COM Nov 2009

12.0

2.4

2.3

2.9

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

12.4

6.7

4.7

4.0

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Jan 2010

4.8

-3.5

-5.7

-4.7

-2.5

COM Nov 20092

6.0

-3.1

-6.0

-5.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

1.1

-0.7

-1.8

-1.4

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-24.6

-8.2

-4.1

-1.2

-0.5

COM Nov 2009

-22.1

-12.8

-8.7

-6.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-22.9

-20.7

-18.4

-16.6

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

39.1

37.5

39.2

39.6

39.1

COM Nov 2009

39.1

38.7

38.4

38.4

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

41.3

43.4

43.4

43.7

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

37.3

39.4

39.2

39.5

39.0

COM Nov 2009

37.3

39.5

39.5

38.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

38.3

40.4

40.4

40.7

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

1.8

-1.93

0.0

0.1

0.1

COM Nov 2009

1.8

-0.8

-1.2

-0.4

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

2.7

-1.3

0.9

1.0

1.1

COM Nov 2009

2.7

0.0

-0.3

0.5

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

0.2

-0.7

1.9

1.7

1.0

COM Nov 2009

-0.3

0.3

1.0

1.5

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

2.6

3.2

3.6

3.5

n.a.

Structural balance4

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

0.2

-0.7

1.9

1.7

1.0

COM Nov 2009

-0.3

0.3

1.0

1.5

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

2.6

3.2

3.6

3.5

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

14.1

14.7

14.6

14.5

14.4

COM Nov 2009

14.1

15.1

16.2

15.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

15.4

15.4

15.3

15.2

n.a.

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 3.4%, 3.1%, 2.9% and 3.0% respectively in the period 2009-2012.

3Eurostat is currently discussing with the Bulgarian statistical authorities the recording in national accounts of capital injections into Bulgarian energy companies, which could increase the government deficit in 2009 by 0.6% of GDP.

4Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. There are no one-off and other

temporary measures in the most recent programme and Commission services’ autumn forecast.

Source:

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Germany

Comparison of key macro-economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

1.3

-5.0

1.4

2

2

2

COM Nov 2009

1.3

-5.0

1.2

1.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

1.3

-2.3

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Nov 2009

2.8

0.3

0.8

1.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

3.2

-2.6

-2.1

-1.3

-1.1

-0.9

COM Nov 20092

3.0

-2.9

-2.6

-2.2

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

2.2

-0.9

-0.7

-0.7

-1.0

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

6.6

4.5

4.9

5

COM Nov 2009

6.6

4.0

3.8

3.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

7.1

7.0

7

7

7

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

43.7

44.4

42½

42

42

42

COM Nov 2009

43.7

44.6

43.3

42.9

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

44

43½

42½

42½

43

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

43.7

47.6

48

47

46

45

COM Nov 2009

43.7

48.0

48.3

47.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

44

46½

46½

45½

45½

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

0.0

-3.2

-5½

-4½

-3½

-3

COM Nov 2009

0.0

-3.4

-5.0

-4.6

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-0

-3

-4

-3

-2½

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.7

-0.6

-3

-2

½

COM Nov 2009

2.7

-0.6

-2.2

-1.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-0

-1

-0

½

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.6

-1.9

-4.4

-4.1

-3.1

-2.3

COM Nov 2009

-1.5

-1.9

-3.6

-3.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-1.2

-2.4

-3.5

-2.4

-2.1

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.2

-1.8

-4.4

-3.9

-3.0

-2.3

COM Nov 2009

-1.1

-1.9

-3.6

-3.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-0.8

-2.5

-3.4

-2.4

-2.1

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

65.9

72½

76½

79½

81

82

COM Nov 2009

65.9

73.1

76.7

79.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

65½

68½

70½

71½

72½

n.a.

Notes:

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.9% and 1.2% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.4% of GDP in 2008 and 0.1% of GDP in 2009 deficit-increasing according to the most recent programme and 0.3% of GDP in 2008 deficit-increasing according to Commission services' November 2009 forecast. There are no one-offs and other temporary measures for years 2010-2013 according to the most recent programme and for years 2009-2011 according to Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Estonia

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Jan 2010

-3.6

-14.5

-0.1

3.3

3.7

4.0

COM Nov 2009

-3.6

-13.7

-0.1

4.2

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-2.2

-3.5

2.6

4.8

5.0

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Jan 2010

10.6

0.2

0.4

1.9

2.3

2.7

COM Nov 2009

10.6

0.2

0.5

2.1

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

10.6

4.2

2.8

3.0

3.2

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Jan 2010

6.2

-8.8

-8.4

-5.7

-3.1

-0.5

COM Nov 20092

4.7

-9.4

-9.1

-5.4

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

0.9

-5.7

-5.9

-3.9

-1.7

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-8.4

6.9

8.5

6.3

2.9

-1.0

COM Nov 2009

-8.2

6.3

3.7

2.4

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-10.5

-5.1

-5.0

-4.7

-4.7

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

37.1

45.0

45.7

44.0

41.5

39.2

COM Nov 2009

37.1

41.9

43.5

42.4

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

36.2

38.9

37.8

36.5

35.2

n.a.

General government expenditure (% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

39.9

47.6

47.9

46.0

42.5

39.0

COM Nov 2009

39.9

44.8

46.7

45.4

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

38.2

40.6

38.8

36.4

35.0

n.a.

General government balance3

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-2.8

-2.6

-2.2

-2.0

-1.0

0.2

COM Nov 2009

-2.7

-3.0

-3.2

-3.0

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-1.9

-1.7

-1.0

0.1

0.2

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-2.5

-2.3

-2.0

-1.7

-0.6

0.7

COM Nov 2009

-2.5

-2.6

-2.6

-2.3

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-1.8

-1.5

-0.8

0.3

0.4

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-4.7

0.1

0.4

-0.3

-0.1

0.4

COM Nov 2009

-4.2

-0.1

-0.4

-1.3

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-2.2

0.0

0.8

1.3

0.7

n.a.

Structural balance4

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-4.7

-1.1

-1.5

-0.9

-0.1

0.4

COM Nov 2009

-4.4

-2.5

-2.4

-1.9

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-2.4

-0.1

0.4

1.2

0.7

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

4.6

7.8

10.1

13.0

14.2

14.3

COM Nov 2009

4.6

7.4

10.9

13.2

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.0

2.8

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 2.3%, -0.2%, -0.4% and 0.2% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3 Convergence Programme: ESA95 definition; Commission services: EDP definition.

4 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures amount to 1.2% of GDP in 2009, 1.9% of GDP in 2010 and 0.6% of GDP in 2011, overall deficit-reducing, according to the most recent programme and 0.2% of GDP in 2008, 2.4% of GDP in 2009, 2.0% of GDP in 2010 and 0.6% of GDP in 2011, overall deficit-reducing, according to the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

Source: 

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Ireland

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections1,2

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Dec 2009

n.a.

-7.5

-1.3

3.3

4.5

4.3

4.0

COM Nov 2009

-3.0

-7.5

-1.4

2.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-1.4

-4.0

-0.9

2.3

3.4

3.0

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Dec 2009

n.a.

-1.7

-1.2

1.0

1.7

1.8

1.8

COM Nov 2009

3.1

-1.5

-0.6

1.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

3.1

0.5

1.5

1.8

1.8

1.8

n.a.

Output gap3

(% of potential GDP)

SP Dec 2009

0.0

-7.0

-7.6

-4.6

-2.2

-0.6

0.1

COM Nov 20094

-0.1

-7.2

-7.8

-5.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

0.5

-3.5

-4.1

-3.4

-1.6

-0.5

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

n.a.

-2.0

0.6

1.2

1.6

1.6

1.3

COM Nov 2009

-5.1

-3.1

-1.8

-1.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-6.3

-4.2

-3.5

-3.4

-3.0

-2.8

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

34.8

34.2

35.2

35.5

36.3

36.7

37.1

COM Nov 2009

34.9

34.4

34.4

33.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

33.6

33.7

34.4

34.6

33.9

34.4

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

42.0

45.9

46.8

45.5

43.5

41.5

40.0

COM Nov 2009

42.0

46.9

49.1

48.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

39.9

43.3

43.4

41.0

38.7

37.0

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

-7.2

-11.7

-11.6

-10.0

-7.2

-4.9

-2.9

COM Nov 2009

-7.2

-12.5

-14.7

-14.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-6.3

-9.5

-9.0

-6.4

-4.8

-2.6

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

-6.1

-9.6

-8.8

-6.6

-3.4

-1

1

COM Nov 2009

-6.1

-10.2

-11.3

-10.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-5.2

-7.3

-6.4

-3.5

-1.7

0.7

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

-7.2

-8.9

-8.6

-8.2

-6.3

-4.7

-2.9

COM Nov 2009

-7.1

-9.6

-11.5

-12.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-6.5

-8.1

-7.4

-5.0

-4.1

-2.4

n.a.

Structural balance5

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

-6.4

-9.3

-9.2

-8.2

-6.3

-4.7

-2.9

COM Nov 2009

-7.1

-10.1

-11.5

-12.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

-6.2

-8.1

-7.4

-5.0

-4.1

-2.4

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Dec 2009

n.a.

64.5

77.9

82.9

83.9

83.3

80.8

COM Nov 2009

44.1

65.8

82.9

96.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Oct 2008

40.6

52.7

62.3

65.7

66.2

64.5

n.a.

Notes:

 

1The Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast was prepared on a pre-budget basis.

2The figures reported as having been taken from the October 2008 stability programme actually refer to its January 2009 addendum.

3Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

4Based on estimated potential growth of 1.8%, -0.5%, -0.7% and 0.0% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

5Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.4% of GDP in 2009 and 0.6% in 2010 (both deficit-reducing) according to the most recent programme and 0.5% of GDP in 2009 (deficit-reducing) according to the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

 

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Spain

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Feb 2010

0.9

-3.6

-0.3

1.8

2.9

3.1

COM Nov 2009

0.9

-3.7

-0.8

1.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

1.2

-1.6

1.2

2.6

n.a.

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Feb 2010

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Nov 2009

4.1

-0.4

0.8

2.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Feb 2010

0.6

-3.5

-4.4

-3.2

-1.6

-0.2

COM Nov 2009

0.8

-2.8

-3.6

-2.6

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

0.8

-2.3

-3.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-9.1

-4.9

-4.2

-3.8

-3.6

-3.5

COM Nov 2009

-9.1

-4.5

-3.7

-3.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-9.2

-6.6

-5.8

-5.4

n.a.

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

37.0

34.6

35.7

36.7

37.5

38.3

COM Nov 2009

37.0

34.0

35.6

36.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

37.0

37.5

38.3

38.7

n.a.

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

41.1

46.1

45.5

44.2

42.8

41.3

COM Nov 2009

41.1

45.2

45.6

45.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

40.4

43.3

43.1

42.6

n.a.

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-4.1

-11.4

-9.8

-7.5

-5.3

-3.0

COM Nov 2009

-4.1

-11.2

-10.1

-9.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-3.4

-6.2

-5.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-2.5

-9.6

-7.7

-4.9

-2.3

0.1

COM Nov 2009

-2.5

-9.4

-7.6

-6.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-1.9

-4.1

-2.9

-1.9

n.a.

n.a

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-4.3

-9.9

-7.9

-6.1

-4.6

-2.9

COM Nov 2009

-4.4

-10.0

-8.5

-8.1

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-3.7

-5.2

-4.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Structural balance2

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-4.3

-9.9

-7.9

-6.1

-4.6

-2.9

COM Nov 2009

-4.1

-9.3

-8.5

-8.1

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

-3.3

-4.6

-4.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

39.7

55.2

65.9

71.9

74.3

74.1

COM Nov 2009

39.7

54.3

66.3

74.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Jan 2009

39.5

47.3

51.6

53.7

n.a.

n.a.

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are n.a. according to the most recent programme and -0.3% of GDP in 2008 and -0.7% of GDP in 2009 in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

France

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projection

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Feb 2010

0.4

-2.25

1.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

COM Nov 2009

0.4

-2.2

1.2

1.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

1.0

0.2-0.5

2.0

2.5

2.5

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Feb 2010

3.2

0.1

1.3

1.6

1.75

1.75

COM Nov 2009

3.2

0.1

1.1

1.4

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

3.3

1.5

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Feb 2010

0.8

-2.9

-2.9

-2.1

-1.2

-0.4

COM Nov 20092

0.8

-2.5

-2.5

-2.4

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-0.6

-1.8

-1.6

-1.1

-0.4

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-3.3

-2.5

-2.8

-2.8

-2.7

-2.7

COM Nov 2009

-3.3

-2.3

-2.3

-2.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-3.4

-2.6

-2.5

-2.4

-2.4

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

49.3

47.7

47.6

48.6

49.1

49.8

COM Nov 2009

49.3

47.0

46.8

47.1

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

49.8

49.6

50.0

50.0

50.2

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

52.7

55.6

55.8

54.6

53.7

52.8

COM Nov 2009

52.7

55.2

55.1

54.8

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

52.7

53.5

52.7

52.0

51.3

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-3.4

-7.9

-8.2

-6.0

-4.6

-3.0

COM Nov 2009

-3.4

-8.3

-8.2

-7.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-2.9

-3.9

-2.7

-1.9

-1.1

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-0.6

-5.4

-5.5

-3.2

-1.7

-0.1

COM Nov 2009

-0.6

-5.5

-5.4

-4.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

0.0

-1.1

0.1

0.9

1.7

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-3.8

-6.5

-6.8

-4.9

-4.0

-2.8

COM Nov 2009

-3.8

-7.0

-7.0

-6.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-2.6

-3.0

-1.9

-1.4

-0.9

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

-3.8

-6.5

-6.8

-4.9

-4.0

-2.8

COM Nov 2009

-3.9

-7.0

-6.6

-6.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

-2.6

-3

-1.9

-1.4

-0.9

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Feb 2010

67.4

77.4

83.2

86.1

87.1

86.6

COM Nov 2009

67.4

76.1

82.5

87.6

n.a.

n.a.

SP Dec 2008

66.7

69.1

69.4

68.5

66.8

n.a.

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 1.5%, 1.2%, 1.2% and 1.4% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0 all over the period covered (2008-2013) according to the most recent programme and 0.1% of GDP in 2008 deficit-reducing and 0.4% of GDP in 2010 deficit-increasing according to the Commission services' November 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Italy

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

-1.0

-4.8

1.1

2.0

2.0

COM Nov 2009

-1.0

-4.7

0.7

1.4

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

-0.6

-2.0

0.3

1.0

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

3.5

0.8

1.5

2.0

2.0

COM Nov 2009

3.5

0.8

1.8

2.0

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

3.5

1.2

1.7

2.0

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

1.1

-4.0

-3.5

-2.5

-1.6

COM Nov 20092

1.3

-3.6

-3.2

-2.5

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

0.3

-2.3

-2.7

-2.5

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-2.9

-1.8

-1.6

-1.3

-1.3

COM Nov 2009

-2.9

-2.3

-2.3

-2.3

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

-1.6

-1.3

-1.1

-0.9

n.a.

General government revenue3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

46.0

46.4

45.9

45.5

45.6

COM Nov 2009

46.0

46.3

45.5

45.4

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

46.4

46.8

46.8

46.4

n.a.

General government expenditure3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

48.8

51.7

50.9

49.9

49.5

COM Nov 2009

48.8

51.6

50.8

50.5

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

49.0

50.5

50.0

49.5

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-2.7

-5.3

-5.0

-3.9

-2.7

COM Nov 2009

-2.7

-5.3

-5.3

-5.1

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

-2.6

-3.7

-3.3

-2.9

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.4

-0.5

-0.1

1.3

2.7

COM Nov 2009

2.4

-0.5

-0.6

0.1

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

2.5

1.3

1.9

2.6

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-3.3

-3.2

-3.2

-2.7

-1.9

COM Nov 2009

-3.4

-3.5

-3.7

-3.8

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

-2.7

-2.6

-1.9

-1.6

n.a.

Structural balance4

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-3.5

-3.8

-3.3

-2.7

-1.9

COM Nov 2009

-3.6

-3.7

-3.7

-3.7

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

-2.9

-2.7

-2.0

-1.7

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

105.8

115.1

116.9

116.5

114.6

COM Nov 2009

105.8

114.6

116.7

117.8

n.a.

SP Feb 2009

105.9

110.5

112.0

111.6

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 0.4%, 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.7% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3 Budgetary data provided in the programme are trends based on unchanged legislation. In order to achieve the targeted general government balances, additional measures with a cumulative positive impact of 0.4% of GDP in 2011 and 1.2% in 2012 are envisaged.

4 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.2% of GDP in 2008, 0.6% in 2009 and 0.1% 2010; all deficit-reducing according to the most recent programme. In the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast one-off and other temporary measures are 0.2% of GDP in both 2008 and 2009 deficit-reducing; 0% in 2010, and 0.1% of GDP in 2011, deficit-increasing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

The Netherlands

Comparison of key macro-economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

2.0

-4

1.5

2

2

COM Nov 2009

2.0

-4.5

0.3

1.6

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

2

2

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

2.2

1

1

1

1

COM Nov 2009

2.2

1.1

0.9

1.2

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

2

2

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.6

-2.7

-2.3

-1.9

-1.8

COM Nov 20092

3.0

-2.7

-3.1

-2.4

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

0.7

-0.1

-0.5

-0.6

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

4.2

COM Nov 2009

3.9

2.7

2.7

3.6

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

8.5

9.5

7.5

8.0

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

45.6

44.4

44.3

44.9

45.5

COM Nov 2009

46.6

44.8

44.8

45.1

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

46.6

46.3

46.1

46.3

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

44.9

49.3

50.4

49.9

50.0

COM Nov 2009

45.9

49.5

50.9

50.7

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

45.4

45.1

45.3

45.2

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

0.7

-4.9

-6.1

-5.0

-4.5

COM Nov 2009

0.7

-4.7

-6.1

-5.6

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

1.2

1.2

0.8

1.1

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.8

-2.5

-3.7

-2.6

-2.0

COM Nov 2009

2.8

-2.3

-3.7

-3.1

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

3.4

3.3

2.9

3.1

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-0.8

-3.4

-4.8

-3.9

-3.5

COM Nov 2009

-1.0

-3.2

-4.4

-4.3

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

0.8

1.3

1.1

1.5

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-0.6

-3.8

-4.8

-3.9

-3.5

COM Nov 2009

-1.0

-3.6

-4.4

-4.3

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.5

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

58.2

62.3

67.2

69.6

72.5

COM Nov 2009

58.2

59.8

65.6

69.7

n.a.

SP Nov 2008

42.1

39.6

38.0

36.2

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 1.7%, 1.1%, 0.7% and 0.9% respectively in the period 2008-2011

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.4% of GDP in 2009, deficit-reducing, according to both the most recent programme and the Commission services' November 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Austria

Comparison of key macro-economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

2.0

-3.4

1.5

1.5

1.9

2.0

COM Nov 2009

2.0

-3.7

1.1

1.5

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

1.8

-2.2

0.5

1.5

2.0

2.3

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

3.2

0.4

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.9

COM Nov 2009

3.2

0.5

1.3

1.6

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

3.2

0.6

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.9

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.8

-1.8

-1.6

-1.5

-1.3

-1.0

COM Nov 20092

2.8

-2.2

-2.6

-2.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

2.6

-0.9

-1.7

-1.6

-1.2

-0.5

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

3.2

2.3

2.4

2.7

2.8

2.9

COM Nov 2009

3.6

1.4

1.3

1.7

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

2.9

1.6

0.6

1.0

1.3

1.4

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

48.4

48.0

46.9

46.8

46.9

46.9

COM Nov 2009

48.4

47.9

47.1

47.1

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

48.2

47.5

46.5

46.4

46.1

46.1

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

48.9

51.5

51.6

50.9

50.2

49.7

COM Nov 2009

48.9

52.3

52.6

52.4

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

48.7

51.1

51.3

51.1

50.9

50.1

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-0.4

-3.5

-4.7

-4.0

-3.3

-2.7

COM Nov 2009

-0.4

-4.3

-5.5

-5.3

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

-0.4

-3.5

-4.7

-4.7

-4.7

-3.9

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

2.2

-0.7

-1.8

-1.2

-0.4

0.2

COM Nov 2009

2.1

-1.4

-2.5

-2.1

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

2.2

-0.6

-1.7

-1.4

-1.3

-0.4

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.7

-2.7

-3.9

-3.3

-2.7

-2.2

COM Nov 2009

-1.8

-3.3

-4.3

-4.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

-1.6

-3.1

-3.9

-4.0

-4.1

-3.7

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.7

-2.7

-3.9

-3.3

-2.7

-2.2

COM Nov 2009

-1.8

-3.3

-4.3

-4.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

-1.6

-3.1

-3.9

-4

-4.1

-3.7

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

62.6

66.5

70.2

72.6

73.8

74.3

COM Nov 2009

62.6

69.1

73.9

77.0

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2009

62.5

68.5

73.0

75.7

77.7

78.5

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 1.7%, 1.2%,1.4% and 1.6% respectively in the period 2008-2011

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. There are no one-offs and other temporary measures in the most recent programme and Commission services' November 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

Slovakia

Comparison of key macro-economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

SP Jan 2010

6.4

-5.7

1.9

4.1

5.4

COM Nov 2009

6.4

-5.8

1.9

2.6

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

6.4

2.4

3.6

4.5

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

SP Jan 2010

3.9

1.2

2.6

3.7

4.1

COM Nov 2009

3.9

1.1

1.9

2.5

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

3.9

2.2

3.6

4.1

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

SP Jan 2010

8.9

-1.1

-2.9

-3.0

-1.0

COM Nov 20092

9.2

-0.8

-2.1

-3.0

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

6.5

3.5

1.7

1.0

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-5.3

-4.2

-3.2

-2.7

-1.9

COM Nov 2009

-5.6

-4.8

-4.3

-4.2

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

-5.8

-4.2

-2.9

-2.6

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

32.5

32.8

32.5

32.3

31.7

COM Nov 2009

32.5

31.3

31.4

31.4

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

33.4

32.1

31.6

31.8

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

34.8

39.1

38.0

36.5

34.7

COM Nov 2009

34.8

37.5

37.5

36.9

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

35.6

35.1

34.5

34.1

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-2.3

-6.3

-5.5

-4.2

-3.0

COM Nov 2009

-2.3

-6.3

-6.0

-5.5

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

-2.2

-3.0

-2.9

-2.2

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-1.1

-4.5

-3.6

-2.3

-1.1

COM Nov 2009

-1.1

-5.0

-4.7

-4.1

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

-0.9

-1.7

-1.7

-1.0

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-4.9

-6.0

-4.7

-3.3

-2.7

COM Nov 2009

-5.0

-6.0

-5.4

-4.6

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

-4.1

-4.0

-3.4

-2.5

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

-4.2

-6.0

-4.7

-3.3

-2.7

COM Nov 2009

-5.2

-6.2

-5.4

-4.6

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

-3.8

-4.4

-3.5

-2.6

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

SP Jan 2010

27.7

37.1

40.8

42.5

42.2

COM Nov 2009

27.7

34.6

39.2

42.7

n.a.

CP Apr 2009

27.6

31.4

32.7

32.7

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 4.7%, 3.6%, 3.2% and 3.6% respectively in the period 2008-2011

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.7% of GDP in 2008, deficit-increasing, according to the most recent programme and 0.2% of GDP in both 2008 and 2009, both deficit-reducing, in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Sweden

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Jan 2010

-0.2

-5.2

0.6

3.1

3.8

COM Nov 2009

-0.2

-4.6

1.4

2.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

1.5

1.3

3.1

3.5

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Jan 2010

2.1

2.0

0.4

0.6

0.9

COM Nov 2009

3.3

1.9

1.7

1.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.6

1.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Jan 2010

1.7

-4.1

-3.6

-1.3

1.5

COM Nov 20092

0.9

-4.5

-4.1

-3.3

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-0.5

-1.6

-1.0

-0.2

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

7.8

7.2

7.1

7.4

7.4

COM Nov 2009

8.1

7.6

7.7

8.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

8.2

8.2

8.3

8.1

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

55.6

54.9

54.6

54.3

53.9

COM Nov 2009

55.6

53.8

52.3

52.0

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

55.4

54.1

53.8

53.3

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

53.1

57.1

58.0

56.3

54.9

COM Nov 2009

53.1

55.9

55.6

54.6

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

52.5

53.1

52.2

50.8

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

2.5

-2.2

-3.4

-2.1

-1.1

COM Nov 2009

2.5

-2.1

-3.3

-2.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

2.8

1.1

1.6

2.5

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

4.2

-0.9

-2.2

-0.8

0.4

COM Nov 2009

4.2

-0.8

-2.1

-1.4

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-4.7

-2.6

-3.0

-3.8

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

1.5

0.2

-1.3

-1.4

-2.0

COM Nov 2009

1.9

0.5

-1.0

-0.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.1

2.0

2.2

2.6

n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

1.2

0.3

-1.3

-1.5

-2.1

COM Nov 2009

1.6

0.3

-1.0

-0.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

2.8

1.9

2.1

2.5

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

38.0

42.8

45.5

45.6

45.2

COM Nov 2009

38.0

42.1

43.6

44.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

35.5

32.2

28.3

23.8

n.a.

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 2.0%, 0.9%, 0.9% and 1.3% respectively in the period 2008-2011

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.3% of GDP in 2008 and 0.1% in both 2011and 2012, all deficit-reducing, and 0.1% of GDP in 2009, deficit increasing, according to the most recent programme and 0.3% of GDP in 2008 and 0.2% of GDP in 2009, all deficit-reducing, in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

Finland

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Real GDP

(% change)
SP Feb 2010 1.0 -7.6 0.7 2.4 3.5 3.0

COM Nov 2009 1.0 -6.9 0.9 1.6 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 2.6 0.6 1.8 2.4 2.2 n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)
SP Feb 2010 3.9 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.0

COM Nov 2009 3.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 n.a. n.a.

SP Oct 2008 4.0 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)
SP Feb 2010 3.7 -5.0 -5.0 -4.0 -2.2 -1.2

COM Nov 20092 3.5 -4.5 -4.3 -3.8 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 1.3 -0.6 -1.0 -1.2 n.a. n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 2.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0

COM Nov 2009 3.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.9 n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 53.4 53.1 52.6 53.4 53.2 52.8

COM Nov 2009 53.4 51.5 50.5 50.6 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 51.4 50.3 49.7 49.4 49.4 n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 49.0 55.3 56.2 56.4 55.5 54.7

COM Nov 2009 48.9 54.3 55.0 55.0 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 47.0 48.2 48.6 48.4 48.5 n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 4.4 -2.2 -3.6 -3.0 -2.3 -1.9

COM Nov 2009 4.5 -2.8 -4.5 -4.3 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 4.4 2.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 5.9 -0.8 -2.3 -1.2 -0.2 0.4

COM Nov 2009 5.9 -1.4 -3.1 -2.9 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 5.4 4.0 3.3 2.8 2.4 n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 2.6 0.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3

COM Nov 2009 2.7 -0.5 -2.3 -2.4 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 3.7 2.4 1.7 1.6 n.a. n.a.

Structural balance3

(% of GDP) SP Feb 2010 2.6 0.3 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3

COM Nov 2009 2.7 -0.5 -2.2 -2.4 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 3.7 2.4 1.7 1.6 n.a. n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)
SP Feb 2010 34.2 41.8 48.3 52.2 54.4 56.4

COM Nov 2009 34.1 41.3 47.4 52.7 n.a. n.a.

SP Dec 2008 32.4 33.0 33.7 34.1 34.6 n.a.

Notes:

1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2Based on estimated potential growth of 2.1%, 1.0%, 0.7% and 1.1% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures concern only 2010 when they amount to 0.2% of GDP and are deficit-increasing according to both the most recent programme and the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast.

               

Source:

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

United Kingdom

Overview of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 

 

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

Real GDP

(% change)

CP Jan 2010

-1.3

-3.5

2.0

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

COM Nov 2009

0.6

-4.6

0.9

1.9

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-0.3

-0.5

2.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

n.a.

HICP inflation

(%)

CP Jan 2010

3.8

2.3

2.0

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

COM Nov 2009

3.6

2.0

1.4

1.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

3.8

1.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

n.a.

Output gap1

(% of potential GDP)

CP Jan 2010

0.0

-4.6

-4.4

-2.8

-1.5

-0.4

0.5

COM Nov 20092

0.4

-3.7

-3.5

-2.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-0.5

-2.4

-2.1

-1.2

-0.4

0.2

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world

(% of GDP)
3

CP Jan 2010

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Nov 2009

-1.4

-2.2

-1.4

-0.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

General government revenue

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 20104

36.6

34.8

35.4

36.7

37.1

37.2

37.1

COM Nov 2009

41.9

38.4

39.2

39.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

36.7

35.5

36.6

37.3

37.7

38.0

n.a.

General government expenditure

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 20104

43.4

47.4

47.4

45.8

44.2

42.7

41.5

COM Nov 2009

49.0

51.2

51.5

50.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

42.2

43.7

43.7

42.9

42.1

41.4

n.a.

General government balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-6.9

-12.7

-12.1

-9.2

-7.4

-5.6

-4.7

COM Nov 2009

-6.9

-13.0

-12.5

-10.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-5.5

-8.2

-7.1

-5.6

-4.4

-3.4

n.a.

Primary balance

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-4.7

-10.5

-9.1

-5.7

-3.7

-1.8

-0.9

COM Nov 2009

-4.8

-11.0

-9.6

-7.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-3.4

-6.4

-4.5

-2.6

-1.4

-0.3

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance1

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-6.9

-10.8

-10.3

-8.0

-6.8

-5.5

-4.9

COM Nov 2009

-7.1

-11.5

-11.0

-9.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-5.3

-7.2

-6.2

-5.1

-4.2

-3.5

n.a.

Structural balance5

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

-6.2

-10.5

-10.3

-8.0

-6.8

-5.5

-4.9

COM Nov 2009

-6.3

-11.4

-11.0

-9.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

-5.3

-7.2

-6.2

-5.1

-4.2

-3.5

n.a.

Government gross debt

(% of GDP)

CP Jan 2010

55.5

72.9

82.1

88.0

90.9

91.6

91.2

COM Nov 2009

55.5

71.7

81.9

89.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

CP Dec 2008

52.9

60.5

65.1

67.5

68.6

68.5

n.a.

Notes:

 

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 1.5%, 0.8%, 0.8% and 1.1% respectively in the period 2008-2011.

3 Data for calendar years.

4 Data for revenue and expenditure are not provided in the UK programme on a harmonised ESA95 basis for the general government sector. The data in the table are based on Table 2.7 of the supplementary material of the 2009 Pre-Budget Report. For the years between 2011/12 and 2014/15, general government revenue and expenditure figures are inferred from projections for the public sector.

5 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are estimated at 0.7% of GDP in 2008/09 and 0.3% of GDP in 2009/10 (deficit-increasing) on the basis of information in the most recent programme.

Source:

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services' autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services' calculations

1 :

Secondo il regolamento (CE) n. 1466/97 del Consiglio per il rafforzamento della sorveglianza delle posizioni di bilancio nonché della sorveglianza e del coordinamento delle politiche economiche, gli Stati membri sono tenuti a presentare ogni anno proiezioni macroeconomiche e di bilancio aggiornate. Tali aggiornamenti sono detti programmi di stabilità per i paesi che hanno adottato l'euro e programmi di convergenza per quelli che non l'hanno ancora adottato. Il regolamento citato viene anche indicato come “parte preventiva” del patto di stabilità e crescita.

2 :

Il piano europeo di ripresa economica, proposto dalla Commissione europea il 26 novembre 2008, è stato approvato dal Consiglio l'11 dicembre 2008.


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