Navigation path

Left navigation

Additional tools

A Bizottság értékeli a hátralévő stabilitási és konvergenciaprogramokat; túlzott hiány esetén követendő eljárás Magyarországgal, Litvániával, Máltával, Lengyelországgal és Romániával szemben

European Commission - IP/09/990   24/06/2009

Other available languages: EN FR DE NL LT MT PL SK SL RO

IP/09/990

Brüsszel, 2009. június 24.

A Bizottság értékeli a hátralévő stabilitási és konvergenciaprogramokat; túlzott hiány esetén követendő eljárás Magyarországgal, Litvániával, Máltával, Lengyelországgal és Romániával szemben

Az Európai Bizottság a 200 9. évi eljárás utolsó lépéseként ma megvizsgálta Ausztria, Belgium, Románia, Szlovénia és Szlovákia aktualizált stabilitási vagy konvergenciaprogramját 1 . A többi uniós országhoz hasonlóan ezen országok költségvetési helyzete is jelentősen romlik, köszönhetően a jelenlegi visszaesésnek és azoknak a gazdasági ösztönző csomagoknak, amelyeket a költségvetési mozgástérrel rendelkező tagállamokat időszerű és célzott költségvetési intézkedésekre felszólító európai gazdaságélénkítési tervvel összhangban fogadtak el. Emellett várhatóan mind az öt országban a számszerűsített költségvetési célokat is lefelé kell módosítani. A 2008. évi végleges pénzügyi eredmények áprilisi bejelentése alapján a Bizottság megállapítja továbbá, hogy Litvániában, Máltán, Lengyelországban és Romániában az EK-Szerződés 104. cikkének (7) bekezdése értelmében túlzott hiány áll fenn, amelynek megszüntetésére határidőket ajánlott. A Bizottság ajánlja továbbá, hogy a Tanács a magyarországi túlzott hiány megszüntetésére kitűzött határidő megújítása céljából fogadjon el egy módosított ajánlást a 104. cikk (7) bekezdése értelmében. Az értékelések és ajánlások a Bizottság tavaszi gazdasági előrejelzésén és egyéb adatokon/információkon alapulnak. A javasolt határidők figyelembe veszik a költségvetés kiinduló helyzetét és az európai gazdaságélénkítési tervvel összhangban álló mozgásteret, a gazdasági kilátásokat, a makrogazdasági egyensúlyhiányt és a finanszírozási feltételeket. Az ajánlásokat az Ecofin-Tanács várhatóan a soron következő, júliusi ülésén vitatja meg. Ekkortól az érintett tagállamoknak hat hónapjuk marad a túlzott hiány megszüntetését célzó intézkedések kidolgozására és azok végrehajtásának megkezdésére.

„Az elmúlt évben az EU-ban és másutt is jelentősen romlott a nemzeti költségvetések helyzete, idén pedig a helyzet további romlása várható, tekintettel a visszaesésre és azokra az indokolt ösztönző csomagokra, amelyeket – a megfelelő mozgástér megléte esetén – az aktivitásra és a foglalkoztatásra gyakorolt kedvezőtlen hatások korlátozása érdekében vezettek be. A mai és a jövőbeni generációk adósságszolgálatának csökkentése céljából alapvetően fontos, hogy a kormányok olyan kiigazítási pályákat dolgozzanak ki, amelyek révén már a gazdaság élénkülésének 2010-re várt kezdetétől fogva hozzá lehet látni az államháztartási hiány leküzdéséhez. A Stabilitási és Növekedési Paktum megteremti ennek a stratégiának és a közép és hosszú távon megbízható és fenntartható államháztartáshoz való visszatérésnek a keretét” nyilatkozta Joaquín Almunia, gazdasági és pénzügyi biztos.

1. A stabilitási és konvergenciaprogramok értékelése

AUSTRIA

After a budget deficit of only 0.4% of GDP in 2008, Austria faces a severe deterioration in its public finances due to the global economic and financial crisis and the budgetary measures adequately taken in line with the EERP. The updated Stability Programme foresees a budget deficit of 3.5% of GDP in 2009 and of 4.7% over 2010-2012 before edging down to 3.9% in 2013. This is subject to downside risks.

Benefiting from the fiscal space created during the boom years and from the absence of external imbalances, the Austrian government introduced sizeable fiscal stimulus of around 1¼% and 1¾% of GDP for 2009 and 2010 that include a mix of revenue and expenditure instruments. The aim is to bolster private incomes, avoid lay-offs, strengthen human skills by providing further vocational training, and provide incentives for investment and support to the automotive sector.

In view of the assessment, Austria is invited to (i) implement the stimulus measures, but reverse the expansionary fiscal stance once the economic crisis subsides so as to return to a consolidation path compatible with the long-term sustainability of public finances, (ii) substantiate the government's intention mentioned in the programme to implement measures deemed necessary to achieve a general government deficit below the 3% of GDP reference value by 2012 at the latest and (iii) further improve the budgetary framework to strengthen fiscal discipline at all levels of government through enhanced transparency and accountability notably by aligning legislative, administrative and financing responsibilities between the different levels of government.

BELGIUM

Following the sharp contraction of the Belgian economy in the last quarter of 2008 and the first of 2009, the updated stability programme foresees a deterioration of the budget deficit from 1.2% of GDP in 2008 to 3.4% of GDP in 2009 and 4% of GDP in 2010. Afterwards, the programme foresees a reduction to below the 3% of GDP reference value by 2012 and to 1.5% of GDP in 2013. The government debt-to-GDP ratio, which rose to 89.6% in 2008 as a result of the measures to stabilise the financial system, is expected to continue its upward movement, reaching 95% in 2010, before gradually declining thereafter, to 92% in 2013. The absence of crucial information in the programme, such as the expenditure and revenue ratios, has hampered the possibility to assess the credibility of the deficit and debt targets in the programme.

The deficit and debt targets are subject to considerable downside risk over the entire programme period, stemming from favourable macroeconomic assumptions and the lack of underlying measures. Moreover, also in the light of the debt dynamics and the long-term sustainability of public finances, the programme lacks ambition regarding the decisive correction of the deficit as the economic situation improves.

On the basis of the Commission's assessment, Belgium is invited to: (i) submit, by 20 September at the latest, an update of the programme including a well founded medium-term budgetary strategy and improve compliance with the data requirements of the code of conduct especially regarding compulsory data; (ii) implement the stimulus measures in line with the EERP as planned while avoiding a further deterioration of the structural balance in 2009 and reverse the expansionary fiscal stance as from 2010 when the economy is expected to improve so as to return to a consolidation path compatible with the long-term sustainability of public finances; (iii) improve the quality of public finances by adopting a more stringent budgetary framework, encompassing binding, multi-annual expenditure ceilings and budgetary agreements among the different government tiers, including the establishment of enforcement mechanisms to ensure the respect of the fiscal targets; and (iv) undertake structural reforms of the social security system, the labour market and product markets to enhance potential growth, increase the employment rate and reduce the budgetary impact of ageing, in order to improve the long-term sustainability of public finances.

ROMANIA

The global economic downturn has resulted in a sharp drop of private capital flows to Romania, leading to a significant deceleration of activity since the fourth quarter of 2008. The Romanian programme assumes GDP to contract by 4% for the whole of 2009, followed by zero growth in 2010 and 2.6% in 2011. Considering the absence of room for fiscal manoeuvre and the need to correct large fiscal and external imbalances, Romania envisages a restrictive fiscal stance between 2009 and 2011.

In line with the commitments made by Romania in the framework of the EU balance of payment assistance, the authorities envisage to undertake a significant fiscal consolidation effort, targeting a deficit of 5.1% of GDP in 2009, with the aim of reducing it to below 3% of GDP by 2011. Furthermore, the programme foresees measures to improve fiscal governance, enhance financial sector regulation and supervision and step up structural reform. However, the budgetary outcomes are subject to downside risks, taking into account the uncertainty related to the macroeconomic scenario in 2009, the effective implementation of the planned expenditure measures and the lack of information on concrete measures needed to underpin fiscal consolidation after 2009.

In view of this assessment and taking into account the policy invitations addressed to Romania to correct the excessive deficit under Article 104(7) of the Treaty (see below), as well as to ensure sustainable convergence, and in line with the economic policy measures envisaged under the economic programme supported by Community balance-of-payments assistance, Romania is invited to: (i) ensure the correction of the excessive deficit by 2011; to this effect, implement the fiscal measures as planned in the February 2009 budget and the April 2009 amended budget, especially in the area of public sector wages and pension reform; take further corrective action if needed to achieve the 2009 deficit target in order to ensure compliance with the commitments undertaken under the programme supported by EC balance of payments assistance; and specify measures to buttress the envisaged reduction of the deficit in 2010 and 2011, in particular those underpinning the planned reduction of the public wage bill; (ii) undertake concrete steps towards the envisaged strengthening of fiscal governance and transparency, in particular by setting up a binding medium-term budgetary framework, establishing an independent fiscal council, introducing limits on budgetary revisions during the year and laying-out fiscal rules as well as restructuring the public compensation system, including pay and bonuses; in the area of tax administration, improve the efficiency of revenue collection through the reform of tax administration and a broadening of the tax base; (iii) accelerate the reform of the pension system (in particular with respect to the indexation of pensions and the retirement age) to curb the substantial increase in age-related expenditures and reduce the risks to the sustainability of public finances and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of healthcare spending; and (iv) strengthen the supply side of the economy by making tangible progress with the implementation of the structural reforms, notably by enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of public administration, improving the business environment, tackling undeclared work and by increasing the absorption and improving the use of EU funds.

SLOVENIA

According to the programme update, the deficit is targeted to widen significantly in 2009, to 5.1% of GDP, reflecting the working of the automatic stabilizers and various discretionary measures as well as the strong dynamics of social transfers and compensation of employees. Thereafter, the deficit is projected to narrow gradually, especially in 2010, but to remain above the 3% of GDP reference value. Assessed against currently available information, the macroeconomic scenario for 2009 and 2010 appears favourable and the budgetary outlook throughout the programme period seems subject to downside risks. In response to the EERP, Slovenia adopted stimulus measures that , together with tax relief decided before the onset of the crisis, should support the economy. They focus on stemming the deterioration in the labour market and enhancing growth potential and competitiveness.

Going forward, key challenges for Slovenia are the reversal of the fiscal stimulus, the need to improve the long-term sustainability of public finances, for which Slovenia is at high risk, and to enhance competitiveness. In view of the assessment, Slovenia is invited to: (i) implement the stimulus measures in 2009 in line with the EERP; (ii) start reversing the fiscal stimulus as planned in the programme in 2010 and strengthen the adjustment foreseen for 2011 in the light of the assumed pick-up in economic growth; in so doing, keep tight control over government expenditure; (iii) in view of the projected increase in age-related expenditure, improve the long-term sustainability of public finances by further reforming the pension system, in particular with a view to encouraging longer working lives

SLOVAKIA

The stability programme of Slovakia targets a budget deficit of 3.0%, 2.9% and 2.2% GDP in 2009, 2010 and 2011 respectively. These budgetary projections are based on markedly favourable macroeconomic assumptions. Achieving medium-term budgetary targets will require more significant structural consolidation after 2009 than envisaged in the programme. The consolidation effort needs to be backed up by concrete expenditure measures. In addition, the deterioration of public finances presents a risk also for long-term sustainability. In this context, it is crucial to keep stable rules for the fully-funded pension pillar and therefore to avoid measures that create uncertainty for the business strategy of pension funds. Slovakia adopted stimulus measures in line with the EERP. They are targeted at disadvantaged groups and in most cases temporary.

In view of the assessment, Slovakia is invited to: (i) implement the anti-crisis measures in line with the EERP as planned; (ii) ensure consolidation from 2010 onwards as the economy recovers and back up the budgetary strategy with specific measures for reducing expenditure from 2010 onwards. This should be supported by the introduction of legally binding expenditure ceilings for the general government to ensure fiscal discipline in a less buoyant revenue scenario; (iii) ensure stable rules for the fully-funded pension pillar, given the upcoming challenges of an ageing population, in order to improve the long-term sustainability of public finance.

2. A túlzott hiány esetén követendő eljárások

MAGYARORSZÁG

Magyarországgal szemben közvetlenül az uniós csatlakozás után, 2004 júliusában indult túlzott hiány esetén követendő eljárás; a vonatkozó ajánlás 2008-ra írta elő a hiánynak a GDP 3%-a alá csökkentését. Az ajánlást 2005 márciusában és 2006 októberében megismételték, erre a Magyarország által hozott intézkedések eredménytelensége adott okot. A Tanács 2006 októberében a túlzott hiány megszüntetésének határidejét is meghosszabbította, 2009-re.

2006 közepe óta az ország észrevehető eredményeket ért el a költségvetési egyensúlytalanságok megszüntetésében. A nominális hiánycélokat rendre jelentősen túlteljesítették, hiszen a GDP-arányos hiány a 2006. évi 9%-ról 2008-ban 3,4%-ra süllyedt. A jelenlegi pénzügyi válság azonban igen kedvezőtlenül befolyásolta a magyar gazdaságot. A hatóságok válaszul 2008 októberében új gazdaságpolitikai programot fogadtak el, amelynek alapja egy 20 milliárd eurós, főként az EU-tól és az IMF-től származó nemzetközi pénzügyi támogatási csomag 2 . Az egymást követően meghozott korrekciós intézkedések ellenére a gazdasági kilátások jelentős romlása – a GDP idén várhatóan mintegy 6,5%-kal zsugorodik – teljesíthetetlenné tette a 2009-es határidőt. Az ország ugyan eredményes intézkedéseket hozott, de a hiányt erősen befolyásolta a gazdaság váratlan és kedvezőtlen alakulása, ezért a módosított Paktum lehetőséget ad arra, hogy az ajánlások módosításával meg lehessen hosszabbítani a hiány megszüntetésének határidejét.

A Bizottság ezzel összefüggésben azt javasolja a Tanácsnak, hogy kérje fel a magyar kormányt a túlzott hiány 2011-ig történő megszüntetésére, ami a jelenlegi, kivételes mélységű és időtartamú recesszió és a pénzügyi szektor sebezhetősége fényében megfelelő új határidőnek tűnik. Ennek során a kormánynak ügyelnie kell arra, hogy 2009-ben állítsa meg a költségvetési egyenleg romlását, és hogy 2010-től következetesen hajtsa végre az államháztartási hiány újbóli csökkentésére irányuló konszolidációs intézkedéseket, fokozott hangsúlyt helyezve a strukturális intézkedésekre. Magyarországot emellett felkérik arra is, hogy a túlzott hiány 2011-ig történő megszüntetése érdekében kellő időben dolgozzanak ki és fogadjanak el további konszolidációs intézkedéseket. A költségvetési kiigazítást egy átfogó, strukturális reformokra irányuló stratégiába kell ágyazni, és a nemrégiben elfogadott, költségvetési felelősségről szóló törvény következetes végrehajtásával kell alátámasztani.

LITHUANIA

According to data notified by the Lithuanian authorities in April 2009, the general government deficit reached 3.2% of GDP in 2008. Although the deficit was close to the 3% Treaty reference value, the excess was not considered as being due to exceptional circumstances nor considered to be temporary. Based on available information, the Commission services' spring 2009 forecast projects that in the absence of new policy measures public finances would deteriorate significantly further in 2009 and 2010 (the deficit would reach 5.4% of GDP and 8.0% of GDP respectively).

In view of the very weak economic situation in Lithuania and the size of the deficit, a 2011 deadline appears warranted. This implies an average annual fiscal effort of at least 1½% of GDP over the period 2009-2011. In order to achieve this target, the Lithuanian authorities should implement the fiscal measures included in the 2009 budget and in the supplementary 2009 budget. Moreover, Lithuania is recommended to consider further measures to limit the deterioration of public finances in 2009 and to devise additional consolidation measures for 2010, so as to achieve this fiscal consolidation path. Lithuania is also recommended to strengthen fiscal governance and transparency, by enhancing the medium-term budgetary framework and reinforcing expenditure discipline, as well as to improve the monitoring of the budget implementation throughout the year.

MALTA

Following the submission of data by the Maltese authorities showing a deficit of 4.7% of GDP in 2008, the Commission adopted on 13 May a report under Article 104(3) of the Treaty as a first step in the excessive deficit procedure. The report concluded that neither the deficit nor the debt criterion in the Treaty is fulfilled.

The Commission recommends to the Council that Malta puts an end to the excessive deficit situation by 2010 in a credible and sustainable manner by rigorously implementing the budgetary measures planned for 2009 while avoiding any further deterioration in public finances. For 2010, new consolidation measures are called for. The recommendation also invites the Maltese authorities to ensure that budgetary consolidation towards the medium-term objective of a balanced budgetary position in structural terms is sustained after the excessive deficit has been corrected. To this end, the Maltese authorities are invited to spell out the measures necessary to achieve a lasting consolidation and to strengthen the medium-term focus of the budgetary framework.

POLAND

According to data notified by the Polish authorities in April 2009, the general government deficit reached 3.9% of GDP in 2008, thus exceeding the 3% reference value. This was significantly more than the expected 2008 outturn of 2.7% presented in the December convergence programme. In the notification, the Polish authorities presented a revised deficit target of 4.6% for 2009 whereas the spring 2009 Commission services’ forecast is 6.6% due to a less optimistic macroeconomic scenario and under a “no policy change” assumption. The Polish authorities have recently revised downwards the growth forecast for this year and announce that the general government deficit may significantly exceed the 4.6% of GDP planned for the current year in the Spring 2009 EDP notification. The Commission report under Article 104(3) published on 13 May considered that the deficit was not close to the 3% of GDP reference value and that the excess over the reference value could not be qualified as exceptional or temporary within the meaning of the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact.

The existence of special circumstances, largely resulting from the global economic crisis, which entailed a collapse of exports, a sharp tightening of mortgage loans and corporate loans as well as the ongoing structural shift in the economy, which also contributes to quickly rising unemployment rates , authorises the Council to allow the correction of the excessive deficit in a medium term rather than in the year following the initiation of the excessive deficit procedure. According to the Commission recommendation to the Council, the Polish authorities should put an end to the excessive deficit situation by 2012 at the latest. This implies an average annual fiscal effort of about 1¼ -1½ percentage points of GDP starting in 2010. To minimise the recession and, at the same time, ensure that long-term growth is sustained, Poland should implement the fiscal stimulus measures in 2009 as planned, in particular the public investment plan, while avoiding any further deterioration in public finances. Credible and sustainable correction of the excessive deficit requires (i) spelling out rapidly the detailed measures that are necessary to achieve the consolidation path allowing to contain primary current expenditure over the coming years, especially in the areas of social spending and (ii) strengthening the binding nature of Poland’s medium-term budgetary framework, for example by means of introducing a legal ceiling on the growth of primary current expenditure, as well as improving the monitoring of the budget execution throughout the year.

ROMANIA

The budget deficit reached 5.4% in 2008 in Romania (see above). This reflects mostly spending slippages, notably on public wages and social benefits, as well as overly optimistic revenue projections and, to a lesser extent, a sudden drop in revenue collection in the last quarter of 2008 owing to the economic slowdown. Rising fiscal deficits have also been due to a lack of fiscal consolidation efforts when economic conditions were favourable. As from 2009, fiscal policy aims to correct the budgetary deficit, in line with the authorities' economic programme adopted in the framework of the international financial assistance extended to Romania.

The Commission recommends that Romania corrects the excessive deficit by 2011 in view of the large imbalances and the economic and financial situation. The proposed timing is in line with the fiscal targets agreed in the framework of the international financial assistance.

To this end, the Romanian authorities are invited to (a) implement the fiscal measures in 2009 as planned in the February 2009 budget and the April 2009 amended budget, especially in the area of public sector wages and pension reform and adopt and implement further measures, if necessary, to achieve the 2009 deficit target; (b) ensure an average annual fiscal effort of at least 1½% of GDP starting with 2010 and (c) spell out the detailed measures that are necessary to achieve the consolidation path beyond 2009 and implement the envisaged corrective measures rigorously; in particular, the consolidation should be expenditure driven and measures should concentrate on containing current expenditure, notably with respect to the public sector wage bill; seize any opportunity to accelerate the reduction of the deficit; stand ready to adopt the additional measures which may be necessary to achieve the correction of the excessive deficit by 2011.

Minden kapcsolódó dokumen tum elérhető a következő internetcímen:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/thematic_articles/article15413_en.htm

AUSTRIA

Comparison of key macro-economic and budg etary projections

 

 

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP
(% change)

SP Apr 2009

3.1

1.8

-2.2

0.5

1.5

2.0

2.3

COM Spring 2009

3.1

1.8

-4.0

-0.1

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

3.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

HICP inflation
(%)

SP Apr 2009

2.2

3.2

0.6

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.9

COM Spring 2009

2.2

3.2

0.5

1.1

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Output gap 1
(% of potential GDP)

SP Apr 2009

2.5

2.6

-0.9

-1.7

-1.6

-1.2

-0.5

COM Spring 2009 2

2.7

2.9

-2.2

-3.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

3.2

2.9

1.6

0.6

1.0

1.3

1.4

COM Spring 2009

3.3

3.3

2.7

2.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

General government revenue
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

48.0

48.2

47.5

46.5

46.4

46.1

46.1

COM Spring 2009

48.0

48.2

47.4

46.7

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

47.4

47.5

47.3

47.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

General government expenditure
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

48.7

48.7

51.1

51.3

51.1

50.9

50.1

COM Spring 2009

48.5

48.6

51.6

52.1

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

48.3

48.1

47.7

47.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

General government balance
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-0.5

-0.4

-3.5

-4.7

-4.7

-4.7

-3.9

COM Spring 2009

-0.5

-0.4

-4.2

-5.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

-0.7

-0.6

-0.2

0.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Primary balance
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

2.3

2.2

-0.6

-1.7

-1.4

-1.3

-0.4

COM Spring 2009

2.2

2.1

-1.1

-2.1

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance 1
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-1.7

-1.6

-3.1

-3.9

-4.0

-4.1

-3.7

COM Spring 2009

-1.8

-1.8

-3.2

-3.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

-0.9

-0.8

-0.4

0.1

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Structural balance 3
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-1.7

-1.6

-3.1

-3.9

-4.0

-4.1

-3.7

COM Spring 2009

-1.8

-1.8

-3.2

-3.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

-0.7

-0.6

-0.4

0.1

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Government gross debt
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

59.4

62.5

68.5

73.0

75.7

77.7

78.5

COM Spring 2009

59.4

62.5

70.4

75.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

59.9

58.4

57.0

55.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Notes :

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 1.8%, 1.7%, 1.3% and 1.3% respectively in the period 2007-2010.

3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. There are no one-off and other temporary measures in the most recent programme and Commission services’ spring 2009 forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source :

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ spring 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

BELGIUM

Comparison of key macro-economic and budgetary projections

 

 

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP
(% change)

SP Apr 2009

2.8

1.1

-1.9

0.6

2.3

2.3

2.1

COM Spring 2009

2.8

1.2

-3.5

-0.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2008

2.8

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

n.a.

n.a.

HICP inflation
(%)

SP Apr 2009

1.8

4.5

0.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

COM Spring 2009

1.8

4.5

0.3

1.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2008

1.8

3.0

1.7

1.8

1.8

n.a.

n.a.

Output gap 1
(% of potential GDP)

SP Apr 2009

2.3

1.5

-1.9

-2.7

-1.9

-1.2

-0.6

COM Spring 2009 2

2.5

1.9

-2.6

-3.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2008

0.3

-0.1

-0.4

-0.5

-0.8

n.a.

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Spring 2009

2.1

-2.1

-2.5

-2.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2008

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

General government revenue
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

48.1

48.6

48.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Spring 2009

48.1

48.6

48.4

48.2

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2008

48.7

49.0

48.8

48.9

49.2

n.a.

n.a.

General government expenditure
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

48.3

49.8

51.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Spring 2009

48.3

49.8

52.9

54.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2008

48.9

49.0

48.5

48.3

48.2

n.a.

n.a.

General government balance
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-0.2

-1.2

-3.4

-4.0

-3.4

-2.6

-1.5

COM Spring 2009

-0.2

-1.2

-4.5

-6.1

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2008

-0.2

0.0

0.3

0.7

1.0

n.a.

n.a.

Primary balance
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

3.6

2.5

0.4

-0.1

0.6

1.5

2.5

COM Spring 2009

3.6

2.5

-0.6

-2.1

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2008

3.7

3.7

3.8

4.1

4.3

n.a.

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance 1
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-1.5

-2.0

-2.4

-2.6

-2.4

-1.9

-1.2

COM Spring 2009

-1.6

-2.2

-3.1

-4.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2008

-0.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.4

n.a.

n.a.

Structural balance 3
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-1.3

-2.0

-2.4

-2.6

-2.4

-1.9

-1.2

COM Spring 2009

-1.5

-2.2

-3.2

-4.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2008

-0.3

0

0.5

1.0

1.4

n.a.

n.a.

Government gross debt
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

84.0

89.6

93

95

94.9

93.9

92

COM Spring 2009

84.0

89.6

95.7

100.9

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

SP Apr 2008

84.9

81.5

778.1

74.7

71.1

n.a.

n.a.

Notes :

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 1.9%, 1.7%, 1.0% and 1.0% respectively in the period 2007-2010.

3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.2% of GDP in 2007, deficit increasing, according to the most recent programme and 0.1% of GDP, deficit increasing, in 2007 and 0.1% of GDP, deficit reducing, in 2009 according to the Commission services' Spring 2009 forecast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source :

Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ Spring 2009 forecast (COM); Commission services’ calculations

ROMANIA

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 

 

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Real GDP
(% change)

CP June 2009

6.2

7.1

-4.0

0.1

2.4

COM Spring 2009

6.2

7.1

-4.0

0.0

n.a.

CP Dec 2007

6.1

6.5

6.1

5.8

n.a.

HICP inflation
(%)

CP June 2009

4.5

7.9

5.8

3.5

3.2

COM Spring 2009

4.9

7.9

5.8

3.5

n.a.

CP Dec 2007

4.8

5.7

4.0

3.3

n.a.

Output gap 1
(% of potential GDP)

CP June 2009

4.3

8.7

-0.5

-2.5

-2.9

COM Spring 2009 2

6.6

8.5

0.2

-3.0

n.a.

CP Dec 2007

2.1

2.1

1.8

1.1

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)

CP June 2009

-12.9

-11.9

-6.3

-5.4

-5.2

COM Spring 2009

-12.8

-11.8

-6.4

-5.1

n.a.

CP Dec 2007

-12.6

-10.5

-10.1

-10.2

n.a.

General government revenue
(% of GDP)

CP June 2009

34.0

33.1

33.2

33.7

34.2

COM Spring 2009

34.0

33.1

33.4

33.3

n.a.

CP Dec 2007

37.4

39.8

39.9

40.8

n.a.

General government expenditure
(% of GDP)

CP June 2009

36.6

38.5

38.3

37.8

37.0

COM Spring 2009

36.6

38.5

38.5

38.9

n.a.

CP Dec 2007

40.3

42.7

42.8

43.2

n.a.

General government balance
(% of GDP)

CP June 2009

-2.5

-5.4

-5.1

-4.1

-2.9

COM Spring 2009

-2.5

-5.4

-5.1

-5.6

n.a.

CP Dec 2007

-2.9

-2.9

-2.9

-2.4

n.a.

Primary balance
(% of GDP)

CP June 2009

-1.8

-4.7

-3.6

-2.4

-1.4

COM Spring 2009

-1.8

-4.7

-3.6

-4.0

n.a.

CP Dec 2007

-2.0

-2.1

-2.1

-1.6

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance 1
(% of GDP)

CP June 2009

-3.9

-8.2

-5.3

-3.3

-2.0

COM Spring 2009

-4.5

-7.9

-5.2

-4.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2007

-3.6

-3.6

-3.5

-2.8

n.a.

Structural balance 3
(% of GDP)

CP June 2009

-3.7

-8.2

-5.3

-3.3

-2.0

COM Spring 2009

-4.4

-7.9

-5.2

-4.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2007

-3.4

-3.4

-3.4

-2.7

n.a.

Government gross debt
(% of GDP)

CP June 2009

12.7

13.6

18

20.8

22.0

COM Spring 2009

12.7

13.6

18.2

22.7

n.a.

CP Dec 2007

11.9

13.6

14.2

14.9

n.a.

Notes :

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 5.1%, 5.2%, 3.9%, 3.2% respectively in the period 2007-2010

3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.2% of GDP in 2007 deficit-reducing and 0% over the period 2008-2011 according to the most recent convergence programme and 0.2% of GDP in 2007 deficit-reducing and 0% over the period 2008-2010 according to the Commission services' spring 2009 forecast.

Source :

Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ spring 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

SLOVENIA

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 

 

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Real GDP
(% change)

SP Apr 2009

6.8

3.5

-4.0

1.0

2.7

COM Spring 2009

6.8

3.5

-3.4

0.7

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

5.8

4.6

4.1

4.5

n.a.

HICP inflation
(%)

SP Apr 2009

3.6

5.7.

0.4

1.6.

2.6.

COM Spring 2009

3.8

5.5

0.7

2.0

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

3.4

3.5

2.8

2.6

n.a.

Output gap 2
(% of potential GDP)

SP Apr 2009

4.7

4.4

-2.3

-3.5

-3.1

COM Spring 2009 2

4.5

3.2

-1.3

-2.7

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

0.7

0.5

0.1

0.2

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

COM Spring 2009

-3.7

-5.6

-4.6

-4.4

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

General government balance
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

0.5

-0.9

-5.1

-3.9

-3.4

COM Spring 2009

0.5

-0.9

-5.5

-6.5

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

-0.6

-0.9

-0.6

0.0

n.a.

Primary balance
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

1.8

0.2

-3.6

-2.2

-1.6

COM Spring 2009

1.8

0.2

-3.9

-4.7

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

0.7

0.2

0.6

1.1

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance 3
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-1.6

-2.9

-4.1

-2.3

-2.0

COM Spring 2009

-1.7

-2.5

-4.9

-5.2

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

-0.9

-1.1

-0.7

-0.1

n.a.

Structural balance 4
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-1.6

-2.9

-4.1

-2.3

-2.0

COM Spring 2009

-1.7

-2.5

-4.9

-5.2

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

-0.8

-1.0

-0.7

-0.1

n.a.

Government gross debt
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

23.4

22.8

30.5

34.1

36.3

COM Spring 2009

23.4

22.8

29.3

34.9

n.a.

SP Nov 2007

25.6

24.7

23.8

22.5

n.a.

Notes :

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programme as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programme.

2 Based on estimated potential growth of 3.9%, 4.9%, 1.0% and 2.2% respectively in the period 2007-2010.

3 One-off and other temporary measures are zero according to the most recent programme and the Commission services' spring 2009 forecast.

4 For the programmes the CPI definition is shown.

Source :

Stability programmes (SP); Commission services’ spring 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

SLOVAKIA

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 

 

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Real GDP
(% change)

SP Apr 2009

10.4

6.4

2.4

3.6

4.5

COM Spring 2009

10.4

6.4

-2.6

0.7

n.a.

CP Nov 2007

8.8

6.8

5.8

5.0

n.a.

HICP inflation
(%)

SP Apr 2009

1.9

3.9

2.2

3.6

4.1

COM Spring 2009

1.9

3.9

2.0

2.4

n.a.

CP Nov 2007

1.7

2.3

2.6

2.7

n.a.

Output gap 2
(% of potential GDP)

SP Apr 2009

5.1

6.5

3.5

1.7

1.0

COM Spring 2009 2

6.5

8.0

0.9

-2.2

n.a.

CP Nov 2007

1.8

2.3

2.1

1.4

n.a.

Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-4.6

-5.8

-4.2

-2.9

-2.6

COM Spring 2009

-4.7

-5.6

-7.6

-6.2

n.a.

CP Nov 2007

-3.4

-1.9

-1.1

-0.4

n.a.

General government revenue
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

32.7

33.4

32.1

31.6

31.8

COM Spring 2009

32.5

32.7

33.6

34.1

n.a.

CP Nov 2007

33.2

33.0

31.8

31.8

n.a.

General government expenditure
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

34.6

35.6

35.1

34.5

34.1

COM Spring 2009

34.4

34.9

38.3

39.4

n.a.

CP Nov 2007

35.7

35.3

33.7

32.6

n.a.

General government balance
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-1.9

-2.2

-3.0

-2.9

-2.2

COM Spring 2009

-1.9

-2.2

-4.7

-5.4

n.a.

CP Nov 2007

-2.5

-2.3

-1.8

-0.8

n.a.

Primary balance
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-0.6

-0.9

-1.7

-1.7

-1.0

COM Spring 2009

-0.5

-0.9

-3.3

-4.0

n.a.

CP Nov 2007

-1.0

-0.9

-0.3

0.5

n.a.

Cyclically-adjusted balance 3
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-3.4

-4.1

-4.0

-3.4

-2.5

COM Spring 2009

-3.8

-4.5

-4.9

-4.7

n.a.

CP Nov 2007

-3.0

-3.0

-2.4

-1.2

n.a.

Structural balance 4
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

-4.2

-3.8

-4.4

-3.5

-2.6

COM Spring 2009

-3.8

-4.7

-5.0

-4.7

n.a.

CP Nov 2007

-3.0

-3.1

-2.4

-1.2

n.a.

Government gross debt
(% of GDP)

SP Apr 2009

29.4

27.6

31.4

32.7

32.7

COM Spring 2009

29.4

27.6

32.2

36.3

n.a.

CP Nov 2007

30.6

30.8

30.5

29.5

n.a.

Notes :

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 The 2007 data on real GDP, HICP inflation were provided on a bilateral basis.

2 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.

3 Based on estimated potential growth of 5.6%, 4.9%, 4.4% and 3.9% respectively in the period 2007-2010.

4 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.8% of GDP in 2007, 0.4% of GDP in 2009, 0.1 of GDP in 2009 and 2010 - deficit-increasing and 0.3% of GDP in 2008 deficit-reducing according to the most recent programme and 0.2% of GDP in 2008 and 0.1% of GDP in 2009 and 2011 deficit-increasing in the Commission services' forecast.

Source :

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stabi lity programme (SP); Commission services’ April 2009 spring forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

1 :

A költségvetési egyenleg felügyeletének megerősítéséről és a gazdaságpolitikák felügyeletéről és összehangolásáról szóló, 1466/97/EK tanácsi rendeletnek megfelelően a tagállamoknak minden évben be kell nyújtaniuk aktualizált makrogazdasági és költségvetési előrejelzéseiket. Azon tagállamok esetében, amelyek már bevezették a közös valutát, ezeket stabilitási programnak, azon tagállamoknál pedig, amelyek még nem vezették be a közös valutát, konvergenciaprogramnak nevezik. Erre a rendeletre a Stabilitási és Növekedési Paktum prevenciós ágaként is hivatkoznak.

2 :

A legújabb fejlemények tekintetében lásd:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/thematic_articles/article15382_en.htm .


Side Bar

My account

Manage your searches and email notifications


Help us improve our website