Navigation path

Left navigation

Additional tools

Komisija izvērtē Īrijas, Grieķijas, Spānijas, Francijas, Latvijas un Maltas stabilitātes un konverģences programmas un veic sākotnējus pasākumus saskaņā ar pārmērīga budžeta deficīta procedūru.

European Commission - IP/09/274   18/02/2009

Other available languages: EN FR DE ES EL

IP/09/274

Briselē, 2009. gada 18. februārī

Komisija izvērtē Īrijas, Grieķijas, Spānijas, Francijas, Latvijas un Maltas stabilitātes un konverģences programmas un veic sākotnējus pasākumus saskaņā ar pārmērīga budžeta deficīta procedūru.

Šodien Eiropas Komisija ir pārbaudījusi Īrijas, Grieķijas, Spānijas, Francijas, Latvijas un Maltas atjauninātās stabilitātes un konverģences programmas[1] (SKP). Ņemot vērā pašreizējo straujo ekonomikas lejupslīdi, ir aplēsts, ka budžeta stāvoklis Īrijā, Spānijā, Francijā un Latvijā ir krasi pasliktinājies 2008. gadā un turpina pasliktināties 2009. gadā. Spānijā un Francijā šī tendence daļēji atspoguļo būtiskas ekonomikas stimulu paketes, kas pieņemtas saskaņā ar Eiropas Ekonomikas atveseļošanas plānu, kurā aicināts laicīgi un mērķtiecīgi veikt fiskālos pasākumus dalībvalstīs, kurās ir iespēja fiskāliem manevriem. Ekonomikas atbalstam Īrija un Malta ir veikušas vairākus pasākumus, kas ir daļa no plašākiem konsolidācijas centieniem, kuri šķiet adekvāti, ņemot vērā makrofiskālās un konkurētspējas grūtības minētajās valstīs. Grieķija nav pieņēmusi fiskālo stimulu pasākumus, kas ir pareiza rīcība, ņemot vērā aizvien tās pozitīvo izaugsmi, augsto parādu un lielo ekonomisko nestabilitāti. Latvija arī atturējās pieņemt īstermiņa fiskālo stimulu pasākumus, jo vajadzēja līdzsvarot ekonomiku un atjaunot investoru uzticību. Tā kā visās sešās valstīs 2008. gadā budžeta deficīts pārsniedza 3 %, Komisija arī pieņēma ziņojumus saskaņā ar Stabilitātes un izaugsmes pakta korektīvo daļu. Saskaņā ar Līguma 104. panta 3. punktu ziņojumos ir analizēti iemesli, kāpēc budžeta deficīts pārsniedz atsauces vērtību – 3 %, ņemot vērā situāciju ekonomikā un citus būtiskus faktorus. Šodien Komisija pārbaudīja vēl 11 SKP, bet visos gadījumos budžeta stāvoklis atbilst Stabilitātes uz izaugsmes paktam (skat. IP/09/273).

"Straujas globālās finanšu un ekonomikas krīzes rezultātā ES valsts finanses ir grūtībās. Krīze radīja kritumu nodokļu ieņēmumos un palielināja izdevumus (piemēram, bezdarbnieku pabalsti). Situācija valsts finanšu jomā turpināja pasliktināties, jo daudzas dalībvalstis pieņēma fiskālos pasākumus, lai šogad palielinātu pieprasījumu un radītu darbavietas, kā ieteikusi Komisija un Padome Eiropas Ekonomikas atveseļošanas plānā. Pārskatītā Stabilitātes un izaugsmes pakta piemērošana palīdzēs atgriezties pie stabilām un ilgtspējīgām valsts finansēm, tiklīdz recesija beigsies un izaugsme atsāksies. Mūsu analīzē konstatēts, ka fiskālo stimulu pasākumi tika pieņemti galvenokārt tajās ES dalībvalstīs, kurās ir budžeta manevrēšanas iespējas un/vai mazs parāds vai ārējā nestabilitāte. Kopumā tie ir konkrēti pagaidu pasākumi, kas ir veikti laicīgi. Tomēr attiecībā uz dalībvalstīm, kurās valsts budžeta deficīts 2008. gadā pārsniedza 3,0 % atsauces vērtību, šodien Komisija pieņēma ziņojumus par pārmērīgu budžeta deficītu. Vajadzības gadījumā tika ņemti vērā ārkārtas apstākļi. Pārējos gadījumos Komisija pilnībā izmantos pārskatītajā Stabilitātes un izaugsmes paktā paredzēto elastīgumu, nākamajās nedēļās apsverot turpmākus pasākumus saskaņā ar pārmērīga budžeta deficīta procedūru," teica ekonomikas un monetāro lietu komisārs Hoakins Almunja.

LATVIJA

Latvija pēc vairāku gadu ekonomiskās izaugsmes, kas pārsniedza potenciālu, pašreiz piedzīvo nopietnu ekonomisko lejupslīdi. Pēkšņā kreditēšanas un nekustamā īpašuma cenu uzplaukuma krahu Latvijā palielināja globālā finanšu krīze, tādējādi ierobežojot kredītu pieejamību un kreditēšanas nosacījumus, un pastiprinot iekšzemes pieprasījuma krituma pasliktināšanos.

Konverģences programmā norādītie fiskālie mērķi atbilst mērķiem, kas minēti decembrī pieņemtajā valsts ekonomikas stabilizācijas plānā un paredz budžeta samazinājumu un nodokļu palielinājumu, lai saņemtu ES un citu starptautisko partneru finansiālo palīdzību (kopā 7,5 miljardi euro, no kuriem 3,1 miljardus euro piešķir ES, skatīt IP/09/18). Budžeta deficīts 2008. gadā pārsniedza 3 % no IKP un programmā tiek prognozēts, ka tas saglabāsies 5 % apmērā 2009. un 2010. gadā, , un 2011. gadā sasniegs zem 3 %.

Ņemot vērā Konverģences programmas novērtējumu, saistības starptautiskā aizņēmuma kontekstā un nepieciešamību nodrošināt sekmīgu dalību VKM II, Latvija ir aicināta: i) līdz 2009. gada martam iesniegt parlamentā sīki izstrādātus papildu grozījumus budžetā, kas tika pieņemts 2008. gada 12. decembrī; vajadzības gadījumā veikt turpmākus pasākumus, lai budžeta deficīts nepārsniegtu plānoto apmēru un lai turpinātu fiskālo konsolidāciju, ii) stingrāk īstenot valsts sektora nominālo algu samazinājumu, lai sekmētu algu līmeņa saskaņošanu ar produktivitāti visos ekonomikas sektoros, tādējādi palielinot izmaksu konkurētspēju, iii) stiprināt fiskālo pārvaldību un pārredzamību, uzlabojot vidēja termiņa budžeta shēmu un kontroli pār izdevumiem, un uzlabot finanšu tirgu pārvaldību; iv) stiprināt ekonomikas piedāvājuma pusi ar plaša mēroga strukturālajām reformām un efektīvi izmantot pieejamos ES struktūrfondus.

Paralēli programmas novērtējumam, Komisija gatavo ziņojumu pamatojoties uz Līguma 104.3 pantu. Lai gan sagaidāms, ka budžeta deficīts ir tuvu atsauces vērtībai 2008. gadā, pārsniegto deficīta apmēru nevar uzskatīt par pagaidu, jo tas palielināsies 2009. gadā un pārsniegs 3% no IKP 2010. gadā. Lai gan kopējais valsts parāds vēl nepārsniedz atsauces vērtību – 60 %, prognozēts tā četrkārtīgs pieaugums no mazāk nekā 10 % 2007. gadā līdz 45.4% no IKP 2010 gadā.

IRELAND

After more than a decade of strong economic growth, Ireland is now going through a severe recession. The downturn was caused by the financial crisis, the sharp correction in the housing market and the recession in Ireland's main trading partners, the US and the UK. These developments have led to a very sharp deterioration of Ireland's public finances, with the government balance going from a small surplus in 2007 to an estimated deficit of 6.3% of GDP in 2008 and widening to 9.5% in 2009.

The Irish Stability Programme envisages a progressive reduction of the deficit to below the 3% of GDP reference value in 2013, assuming a recovery of economic activity after 2010. The measures adopted by the government can be regarded as welcome and adequate given the high deficit and a sharply increasing debt position (to above the 60% reference value from 2010) and are in line with the European Recovery Plan. But the growth scenario is somewhat optimistic and the consolidation measures presently lack detail. Further risks stem from the measures in place to support the financial sector, in particular bank guarantees and, concerning the debt ratio, the possibility of further capital injections or nationalisations of banks.

In view of the Commission assessment, Ireland is invited to (i) limit the widening of the deficit in 2009 and specify and rigorously implement a substantial broad-based fiscal consolidation program for 2010 and beyond; (ii) in order to limit risks to the adjustment, strengthen the binding nature of the medium-term budgetary framework as well as closely monitor adherence to the budgetary targets throughout the year; (iii) in view of the significant projected increase in age-related expenditure, and also of the increase in debt albeit from a low level expected over the program period, improve the long-term sustainability of public finances by implementing further pension reform measures in addition to pursuing fiscal consolidation.

As the deficit in Ireland reached 6.3% in 2008, thus exceeding the 3% reference value, the Commission also adopted a report under 104.3 of the EU Treaty which lays down an excessive deficit procedure (EDP). This is because while the excess over the reference value can be qualified as exceptional, it is not close to the reference value and it is not temporary. At 40.6% of GDP in 2008, general government gross debt remains below the 60% of GDP reference value but is expected to exceed that value from 2010.

GREECE

Greece has experienced strong economic growth at 4% per year over the current decade. In 2008 its GDP grew well above the euro area average and in 2009 it was still seen in positive territory in the Commission's January forecasts. However, domestic and external macroeconomic imbalances have widened considerably, which has led to very high public and foreign debt. The ongoing global economic and financial crisis is taking its toll on the economy and putting pressure on the debt burden.

The budget deficit exceeded 3% in 2007 and 2008 and, according to the Greek Stability Programme, it will reach 3.7% in 2009 before falling to 3.2% of GDP in 2010 and 2.6% by 2011. Greece has no room for fiscal impulse given its very high debt and current account imbalance. It has not adopted a stimulus package. The consolidation strategy in 2010 and 2011, outlined in the Programme, relies on expenditure restraint and to a lesser extent on increasing tax revenues, but the plans currently lack in detail on concrete measures.

In view of the Commission assessment, Greece is invited to: (i) strengthen substantially the fiscal consolidation path already in 2009, especially if economic conditions turn out better than expected in the programme, through well-specified permanent measures curbing current expenditure, including a prudent public sector wage policy, thereby contributing to necessary reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio; (ii) ensure that fiscal consolidation measures are also geared towards enhancing the quality of public finances, within the framework of a comprehensive reform programme, in the light of the necessary adjustment of the economy, with a view to recovering competitiveness losses and addressing the existing external imbalances; (iii) implement swiftly the policies to reform the tax administration and improve the functioning of the budgetary process by increasing its transparency, spelling out the budgetary strategy within a longer time perspective and set up mechanisms to monitor, control and improve the efficiency of primary current expenditure; (iv) in view of the mounting level of debt and the projected increase in age-related expenditure, improve the long-term sustainability of public finances, by continuing the on-going reforms in the healthcare and pension system.

The deficit exceeded 3% in 2007 and the general government debt stood at 94.8% of GDP that year, according to the data notified by the Greek authorities in October 2008 and validated by Eurostat, confirmed also in the January 2009 update of the Stability Programme. Therefore, the Commission adopted a report under Article 104.3 of the Treaty, which marks the start of the EDP. According to the Commission's January forecast, the deficit net of one-offs attained 3.6% of GDP in 2008 (or 3.4% of GDP including one-offs). The excess over the 3% reference value is not temporary. The excess over the 3% reference value is also not exceptional, as it does not result from a severe economic downturn in the sense of the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact.

SPAIN

Spain is undergoing a sharp contraction of economic activity as a result of the global economic and financial crisis and a severe correction in the housing sector, both taking their toll on public finances and on employment. Since the first half of 2008, the Spanish authorities have also adopted various discretionary measures to stimulate economic activity, in line with the EU Recovery Plan, including tax cuts and investment projects, amounting to 2¼% of GDP in 2009, as well as a series of structural reforms.

In 2008, for the first time in several years, Spain is estimated by the Commission and in its Stability Programme sent mid January to have recorded a budget deficit estimated at 3.4% of GDP. The programme puts the figure this year at -5.8% before a gradual fall to below 4% in 2011. However, the favourable macroeconomic assumptions may imply a lower contribution of economic growth to fiscal consolidation than envisaged and the adjustment path is not fully backed up with concrete measures, except for the discontinuation of the 2009 stimulus package. In this context, a careful assessment of the budgetary impact of discretionary measures will be crucial to ensure the improvement of the medium-term budgetary position, as well as of the long-term sustainability of public finances.

Public debt, which had been reduced to 36.2% of GDP in 2007, is expected to grow to above 50% in 2010.

Based on this evaluation, the Commission proposes three policy invitations for Spain, which focus on:

(i) Implement the measures in line with the EERP as planned, while avoiding a further deterioration of public finances in 2009, and carry out with determination the planned structural adjustment in 2010 and beyond, backing it up with measures, and strengthening the pace of budgetary consolidation if cyclical conditions are better than projected, (ii) In view of the ongoing fiscal deterioration and of the projected impact of ageing on government expenditure, improve the long-term sustainability of public finances by implementing the adopted measures aimed at curbing the increase in age-related expenditure; (iii) Ensure that fiscal consolidation measures are also geared towards enhancing the quality of the public finances as planned in the light of the needed adjustment of the economy to address existing imbalances.

In parallel with its assessment of the programme, the Commission is adopting a report under Article 104.3 of the Treaty – on the basis of the breach of the 3% of GDP reference value in 2008. While the deficit remained close to the 3% reference value, the deficit cannot be said to be the result of a severe economic downturn as GDP growth was still positive (over 1%). The excess over the 3% is also not temporary as, according to the programme, it will remain above that level until 2011.

FRANCE

The global financial and economic crisis has also significantly reduced economic growth in France in 2008 and the economy is set to contract by a level close to the euro area average in 2009. In response, the French government unveiled in December a recovery plan amounting to 1.3% of GDP, which will increase the deficit by 0.8% of GDP in 2009 and 0.1% of GDP in 2010. The plan can be considered as targeted, timely and temporary and in line with the EU Recovery Plan.

The French budget deficit is estimated to have reached 3.2% in 2008, according to recent government information sent to the Commission and to increase to 4.4% in 2009 before falling to below 3% in 2011, according to the new projections. The higher figures rely on the same macroeconomic scenario as notified at the end of December.

The programme foresees a consolidation of public finances through a restrictive stance, especially in 2010. Risks are linked in particular to the markedly favourable macroeconomic assumptions and the current uncertain environment, but they also reflect the high deficits recorded when economic conditions were more favourable.

In view of the above assessment, France is invited to (i) implement in 2009 the measures in line with the EU Recovery Plan as planned while maintaining the objective of avoiding a further deterioration of public finances; (ii) implement the planned structural adjustment in 2010 and strengthen the pace of budgetary consolidation once the economy recovers, in order to ensure that the deficit is brought rapidly below the reference value thereby setting the debt to GDP ratio on a declining path; (iii) further improve expenditure rules by making them binding to all government tiers, reinforcing their monitoring and enforcement mechanisms and taking additional measures in the context of the General Review of Public Policies. Implement the structural reform programme in particular as regards the sustainability of the pension system.

The Commission has also adopted a report in application of the Stability and Growth Pact for France. This is because, although the deficit in 2008 is likely to have been close to the 3% reference value, it does not result from exceptional circumstances in the sense of the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact, and is not temporary as it is expected to remain above 3% in the following two years.

LATVIA

Latvia is currently in a severe economic downturn following years of above-potential economic growth. The global financial crisis has amplified the shock of the reversal of Latvia's own lending and house price boom by tightening credit availability and conditions, which in turn reinforced the steep decline of domestic demand.

The fiscal targets presented in the Convergence Programme are in line with those in the country's economic stabilisation plan, adopted in December, which foresees tax increases and expenditure cuts and is supported by international financial assistance (€7.5 billion in total of which €3.1 billion from the EU, see IP/09/18). Having exceeded 3% of GDP in 2008, the programme targets general government deficits of around 5% in 2009 and 2010, before falling below 3% in 2011.

In view of the above assessment, the commitments made in the framework of international financial assistance and also given the need to ensure sustainable convergence and a smooth participation in ERM II, Latvia is invited to: (i) submit to Parliament by the end of March 2009 the details of the supplementary budget adopted on 12 December 2008; take further measures if needed to achieve the targeted general government deficit in 2009 and continue the targeted fiscal consolidation thereafter; (ii) rigorously implement public sector nominal wage reductions to facilitate the alignment of whole-economy wages with productivity, thereby improving cost competitiveness; (iii) strengthen fiscal governance and transparency, by improving the medium-term budgetary framework and reinforcing spending controls, and strengthen financial market regulation and supervision; (iv) strengthen the supply side of the economy by wide-ranging structural reforms and by making efficient use of available EU structural funds.

In parallel with its assessment of the programme, the Commission is adopting a report under Article 104.3 of the Treaty. While the deficit is expected to have been close to the reference value in 2008, the excess over the reference value cannot be considered temporary as it would widen in 2009 and remain well above 3% of GDP in 2010. The general government debt, while still below the 60% reference value, is projected on a rapidly growing trend, increasing fourfold from less than 10% in 2007 to 45.4% of GDP in 2010.

MALTA

Against a backdrop of weakening economic growth, the budget deficit is estimated to have reached 3.3% in 2008, according to the Stability Programme submitted early December (3.5% according to the Commission's January forecast). But the programme and the Commission also envisage a return to budgetary consolidation from 2009 onwards. The measures adopted by the government in response to the downturn are in line with the EU Recovery Plan and can be regarded as adequate given the deficit and debt ratios as well as the competitiveness challenge. However, there are risks to the achievement of the deficit and debt targets over the programme period stemming from the favourable macroeconomic scenario, the reliance on volatile revenue, the possibility of expenditure slippages and the lack of information on the consolidation measures in the outer years.

The debt ratio is targeted to fall gradually over the programme period to below the 60% but is subject to the risks mentioned above.

In view of the Commission assessment, Malta is invited to (i) resume fiscal consolidation as envisaged in the programme and ensure that the general government debt ratio is reduced accordingly, by spelling out the measures underlying the planned consolidation in the outer years; (ii) strengthen the medium-term budgetary framework and enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending, including by accelerating the design and implementation of a comprehensive healthcare reform.

As the 2008 deficit is above the reference value, the Commission also adopted a report under the excessive deficit procedure. It concludes that, although the 2008 deficit remains close to the reference value and the planned excess can be considered temporary, the excess cannot be qualified as exceptional within the meaning of the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact as it reflects specific expenditure decisions rather than the impact of the economic downturn. However, on balance the examination of all the relevant factors seems positive.

The country-specific opinions are available at:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/thematic_articles/article13960_en.htm

Stabilitātes un izaugsmes pakta un pārmērīga budžeta deficīta procedūras pamatojums

Stabilitātes un izaugsmes paktā noteikts, ka Komisijai vienmēr jāsagatavo ziņojums, kad dalībvalsts budžeta deficīts pārsniedz atsauces vērtību 3 % no IKP. Pārmērīga budžeta deficīta procedūra ir atrunāta Līguma 104. pantā un sīkāk precizēta Padomes Regulā (EK) Nr. 1467/97, kas ir Pakta daļa.

Budžeta mērķi iesniegtajā programmā un Komisijas atzinums par minēto programmu nenosaka termiņus budžeta deficīta novēršanai, ko ieteiks vēlāk. Pakts, ko pārskatīja 2005. gadā, paredz ņemt vērā ekonomisko situāciju, izstrādājot ieteikumus par budžeta deficīta novēršanas gaitu.

Ziņojumi ir paredzēti Ekonomikas un finanšu komitejai, kas pieņem atzinumus divu nedēļu laikā. Ņemot vērā minētās komitejas ziņojumu un atzinumu, Komisijai jāpieņem lēmums, vai iesniegt Padomei ieteikumu par pārmērīga budžeta deficīta konstatāciju (Līguma 104. panta 5. un 6. punkts) un termiņu tā novēršanai (Līguma 104. panta 7. punkts).
IRELAND

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Real GDP
(% change)
SP Jan 2009
6.0
-1.4
-4.0
-0.9
2.3
3.4
3.0
COM Jan 2009
6.0
-2.0
-5.0
0.0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
4.8
3.0
3.5
4.1
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
HICP inflation
(%)
SP Jan 2009
2.8
3.1
0.5
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.8
COM Jan 2009
2.9
3.1
0.7
1.8
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.8
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
SP Jan 2009
4.4
0.5
-3.5
-4.1
-3.4
-1.6
-0.5
COM Jan 20093
4.4
0.1
-4.5
-4.2
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-0.5
-1.3
-1.5
-0.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-5.4
-6.3
-4.2
-3.5
-3.4
-3.0
-2.8
COM Jan 2009
-5.4
-5.7
-3.3
-3.2
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-4.4
-3.9
-3.5
-3.1
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
35.7
33.6
33.7
34.4
34.6
33.9
34.4
COM Jan 2009
35.7
33.7
33.7
33.9
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
36.6
36.1
35.8
35.4
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
35.4
39.9
43.3
43.4
41.0
38.7
37.0
COM Jan 2009
35.4
40.0
44.7
46.9
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
36.1
37.0
36.9
36.5
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
General government balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 20092
0.2
-6.3
-9.5
-9.0
-6.4
-4.8
-2.6
COM Jan 2009
0.2
-6.3
-11.0
-13.0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
0.5
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
1.2
-5.2
-7.3
-6.4
-3.5
-1.7
0.7
COM Jan 2009
1.2
-5.2
-8.7
-10.3
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
1.4
0.0
-0.1
0.0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-1.5
-6.5
-8.1
-7.4
-5.0
-4.1
-2.4
COM Jan 2009
-1.5
-6.3
-9.1
-11.3
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
0.7
-0.4
-0.5
-0.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Structural balance4
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-1.7
-6.2
-8.1
-7.4
-5.0
-4.1
-2.4
COM Jan 2009
-1.5
-6.3
-9.4
-11.3
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
0.5
-0.4
-0.5
-0.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
24.8
40.6
52.7
62.3
65.7
66.2
64.5
COM Jan 2009
24.8
40.8
54.8
68.2
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
25.1
25.9
27.6
28.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Notes:
 
1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
 
2 The targets for the general government balance include as yet unspecified additional annual consolidation measures of 2¼% of GDP in 2010, 2% in 2011, 1¾% in 2012, and 1½% in 2013. The additional consolidation measures for 2009 (1% of GDP) are in the process of being specified.

3 Based on estimated potential growth of 4.0%, 2.2%, -0.4% and -0.4% respectively in the period 2007-2010.
 
4 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.3% of GDP in 2008 (deficit-increasing) according to the most recent programme and 0.3% in 2009 (deficit-reducing) according to the Commission services' January interim forecast.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source:
 
Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ January 2009 interim forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.
 


GREECE

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP
(% change)
SP Jan 2009
4.0
3.0
1.1
1.6
2.3
COM Jan 2009
4.0
2.9
0.2
0.7
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
n.a.
HICP inflation
(%)
SP Jan 2009
3.0
4.3
2.6
2.5
2.4
COM Jan 2009
3.0
4.3
2.5
2.7
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
n.a.
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
SP Jan 2009
2.2
1.9
0.3
-0.8
-1.0
COM Jan 20092
3.0
2.8
0.5
-1.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
1.3
1.2
1.2
n.a.
n.a.
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-12.1
-12.8
-11.4
-10.8
-10.0
COM Jan 2009
-12.1
-11.7
-11.2
-11.6
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-12.8
-12.7
-12.5
-12.2
n.a.
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
39.9
40.0
41.0
41.1
41.2
COM Jan 2009
40.0
39.9
40.8
40.0
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
39.9
41.1
41.7
42.3
n.a.
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
43.4
43.7
44.7
44.3
43.8
COM Jan 2009
43.4
43.4
44.5
44.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
42.6
42.7
42.5
42.3
n.a.
General government balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-3.5
-3.7
-3.7
-3.2
-2.6
COM Jan 2009
-3.5
-3.4
-3.7
-4.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-2.7
-1.6
-0.8
0.0
n.a.
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
0.6
0.3
0.8
1.2
1.7
COM Jan 2009
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.0
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
1.2
2.4
3.1
3.8
n.a.
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-4.4
-4.5
-3.8
-2.8
-2.2
COM Jan 2009
-4.8
-4.7
-3.9
-3.7
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-3.4
-2.4
-2.3
n.a.
n.a.
Structural balance3
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-4.4
-4.5
-4.3
-2.8
-2.2
COM Jan 2009
-4.6
-5.0
-4.7
-3.7
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-3.1
-2.4
-2.3
n.a.
n.a.
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
94.8
94.6
96.3
96.1
94.7
COM Jan 2009
94.8
94.0
96.2
98.4
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
93.4
91.0
87.3
82.9
n.a.
Notes:
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
2 Based on estimated potential growth of 3.2%, 2.7%, 2.8% and 2.5% respectively in the period 2008-2011.
3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.4% of GDP in 2008 and 0.5% in 2009 (all deficit-reducing) according to the most recent programme and 0.4% of GDP in 2008 and 0.8% in 2009 (all deficit-reducing) in the Commission services' January interim forecast.
Source:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ January 2009 interim forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations



SPAIN

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP
(% change)
SP Jan 2009
3.7
1.2
-1.6
1.2
2.6
COM Jan 2009
3.7
1.2
-2.0
-0.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
3.8
3.1
3.0
3.2
n.a
HICP inflation
(%)
SP Jan 2009
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
COM Jan 2009
2.8
4.1
0.6
2.4
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
2.7
3.3
2.7
2.8
n.a
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
SP Jan 2009
1.4
0.3
-2.6
-3.2
-2.7
COM Jan 20092
1.5
0.8
-2.3
-3.4
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-0.9
-1.4
-1.9
-1.6
n.a
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-9.7
-9.2
-6.6
-5.8
-5.4
COM Jan 2009
-9.7
-9.0
-6.7
-6.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-9.0
-8.9
-8.8
-8.7
n.a
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
41.0
37.0
37.5
38.3
38.7
COM Jan 2009
41.0
36.8
36.4
36.9
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
40.800
40.4
40.4
40.3
n.a
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
38.8
40.4
43.3
43.1
42.6
COM Jan 2009
38.8
40.2
42.6
42.5
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
39.0
39.2
39.2
39.1
n.a
General government balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
2.2
-3.4
-5.8
-4.8
-3.9
COM Jan 2009
2.2
-3.4
-6.2
-5.7
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
1.8
1.2
1.2
1.2
n.a
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
3.8
-1.9
-4.1
-2.9
-1.9
COM Jan 2009
3.8
-1.8
-4.6
-4.0
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
3.4
2.7
2.6
2.6
n.a
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
1.6
-3.5
-4.7
-3.4
-2.8
COM Jan 2009
1.6
-3.7
-5.2
-4.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.9
n.a
Structural balance3 4
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
1.6
-3.5
-4.7
-3.4
-2.8
COM Jan 2009
1.6
-3.3
-4.6
-4.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.9
n.a
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
36.2
39.5
47.3
51.6
53.7
COM Jan 2009
36.2
39.8
46.9
53.0
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
36.2
34.0
32.0
30.0
n.a
Notes:
 
 
 
 
 
 
1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
2Based on estimated potential growth of 3.0%, 1.8%, 1.0% and 0.9% respectively in the period 2007-2010.
3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. No one-offs are included in the most recent programme. One-off and other temporary measures are below ½% of GDP in 2008 and above ½% in 2009, all deficit-reducing, are included in the Commission services' January 2009 interim forecast.
4Using the recalculated cyclically-adjusted balance, based on the information in the programme, and the definition of one-offs and other temporary measures applied by the Commission services, the structural balance would be - 3.1% of GDP in 2008, -4.1 in 2009, and -3.4 in 2010.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ January 2009 interim forecast (COM); Commission services’ calculations


FRANCE

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Real GDP
(% change)
SP Dec 2008
2.2
1.0
0.2-0.5
2.0
2.5
2.5
COM Jan 2009
2.2
0.7
-1.8
0.4
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
2-2.5
2-2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
HICP inflation
(%)
SP Dec 2008
1.6
3.3
1.5
COM Jan 2009
1.6
3.2
0.8
1.5
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
1.4
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
SP Dec 2008
0.4
-0.6
-1.8
-1.6
-1.1
-0.4
COM Jan 20092
1.8
1.0
-1.7
-2.3
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-0.8
-0.8
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
0.0
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-2.8
-3.4
-2.6
-2.5
-2.4
-2.4
COM Jan 2009
-2.8
-3.8
-4.0
-3.9
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-2.3
-2.5
-2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2.0
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
49.7
49.8
49.6
50.0
50.0
50.2
COM Jan 2009
49.7
49.6
49.4
49.9
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
50.7
50.4
50.1
50.0
50.0
50.0
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
52.4
52.7
53.5
52.7
52.0
51.3
COM Jan 2009
52.4
52.7
54.9
54.9
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
53.2
52.6
51.9
51.2
50.6
49.9
General government balance
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-2.7
-2.9
-3.9
-2.7
-1.9
-1.1
p.m. MoF4
-2.7
-3.2
-4.4
-3.1
-2.3
-1.5
COM Jan 2009
-2.7
-3.2
-5.4
-5.0
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-2.4
-2.3
-1.7
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
0.1
0.0
-1.1
0.1
0.9
1.7
COM Jan 2009
0.1
-0.3
-2.6
-2.1
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
0.2
0.5
0.9
1.4
2.0
2.5
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-2.9
-2.6
-3.0
-1.9
-1.4
-0.9
COM Jan 2009
-3.5
-3.7
-4.6
-3.8
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-2.0
-1.9
-1.4
-1.0
-0.4
0.0
Structural balance3
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-2.9
-2.6
-3.0
-1.9
-1.4
-0.9
COM Jan 2009
-3.6
-3.8
-4.6
-3.8
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-2.0
-1.9
-1.4
-1.0
-0.4
0.0
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
63.9
66.7
69.1
69.4
68.5
66.8
COM Jan 2009
63.9
67.1
72.4
76.0
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
64.2
64.0
63.2
61.9
60.2
57.9
Notes:
1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
2 Based on estimated potential growth of 1.6%, 1.4%, 0.9% and 1.0% respectively in the period 2007-2010.
3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0 all over the period covered (2007-2012) according to the most recent programme and are 0.1% of GDP in 2007, 0.1% in 2008, all deficit-reducing and 0 in 2009 and 2010 according to the Commission services' January 2009 interim forecast.
4 On 20 January 2009 the French Minister of Budget, Mr Woerth, announced at the National Assembly that public deficits for the period 2008 - 2012 would be higher than projected in the updated stability programme. He has also stated that this estimate was not final, as data from local authorities was not complete yet. The French statistical office (INSEE) will publish the precise figures at the end of March.
Source:
Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ January 2009 Interim forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

LATVIA

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP
(% change)
CP Jan 2009
10.3
-2.0
-5.0
-3.0
1.5
COM Jan 2009
10.3
-2.3
-6.9
-2.4
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
10.5
7.5
7.0
6.8
n.a.
HICP inflation
(%)
CP Jan 2009
10.1
15.4
5.9
2.2
1.3
COM Jan 2009
10.1
15.3
6.8
2.4
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
10.1
12.5
7.2
4.9
n.a.
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
CP Jan 2009
12.2
5.9
-1.6
-5.7
-5.3
COM Jan 20092
13.2
7.0
-1.8
-4.7
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
2.8
1.3
-0.3
-1.7
n.a.
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
-21.8
-13.4
-5.4
-2.6
-2.3
COM Jan 2009
-20.8
-13.0
-4.6
-3.4
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-23.5
-20.3
-18.3
-16.4
n.a.
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
37.7
35.1
32.5
35.0
37.7
COM Jan 2009
37.6
36.0
34.1
34.7
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
37.3
37.4
37.7
37.9
n.a.
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
37.7
38.6
37.7
39.9
40.7
COM Jan 2009
37.6
39.5
40.4
42.1
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
37.0
36.8
36.7
36.7
n.a.
General government balance
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
0.1
-3.5
-5.3
-4.9
-2.9
COM Jan 2009
0.1
-3.5
-6.3
-7.4
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
0.3
0.7
1.0
1.2
n.a.
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
0.5
-2.9
-3.7
-3.5
-1.4
COM Jan 2009
0.6
-2.9
-5.1
-5.5
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
0.7
1.0
1.2
1.5
n.a.
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
-3.3
-5.1
-4.9
-3.3
-1.4
COM Jan 2009
-3.6
-5.4
-5.8
-6.1
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-0.5
0.4
1.1
1.7
n.a.
Structural balance3
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
-3.3
-5.1
-4.9
-3.3
-1.4
COM Jan 2009
-3.6
-5.4
-5.8
-6.1
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-0.5
0.4
1.1
1.7
n.a.
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
9.5
19.4
32.4
45.4
47.3
COM Jan 2009
9.5
16.0
30.4
42.9
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
9.4
8.3
7.2
6.4
n.a.
Notes:
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
2 Based on estimated potential growth of 5.5%, 3.4%, 1.4% and 0.5% respectively in the period 2007-2010.
3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. There are no one-off and other temporary measures in the most recent programme or in the Commission services' January interim forecast.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ January 2009 interim forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.





MALTA

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP
(% change)
SP Dec 2008
3.7
2.8
2.2
2.5
2.8
COM Jan 2009
3.9
2.1
0.7
1.3
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
3.5
3.1
3.2
3.4
n.a.
HICP inflation
(%)
SP Dec 2008
0.7
4.5
2.7
2.3
2.0
COM Jan 2009
0.7
4.6
1.9
2.2
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
0.9
2.5
2.3
2.1
n.a.
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
SP Dec 2008
0.0
0.1
-0.3
-0.5
0.5
COM Jan 20092
1.1
1.2
0.0
-0.6
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-0.8
-0.1
0.5
1.9
n.a.
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-5.5
-5.1
-3.1
-2.7
0.7
COM Jan 2009
-4.6
-5.5
-5.5
-5.3
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-0.5
0.2
3.2
5.5
n.a.
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
40.6
40.6
41.7
41.8
41.9
COM Jan 2009
40.4
40.7
41.1
41.2
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
41.0
40.9
39.9
39.5
n.a.
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
42.4
43.9
43.2
42.1
40.7
COM Jan 2009
42.2
44.2
43.7
43.8
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
42.7
42.2
40.0
38.5
n.a.
General government balance
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-1.8
-3.3
-1.5
-0.3
1.2
COM Jan 2009
-1.8
-3.5
-2.6
-2.5
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-1.6
-1.2
-0.1
0.9
n.a.
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
1.6
0.0
1.9
3.0
4.3
COM Jan 2009
1.6
-0.2
0.8
0.8
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
1.7
2.0
2.9
3.8
n.a.
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-1.8
-3.4
-1.4
-0.1
1.0
COM Jan 2009
-2.2
-4.0
-2.6
-2.3
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-1.3
-1.2
-0.3
0.3
n.a.
Structural balance3
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-2.4
-3.7
-1.7
-0.2
0.9
COM Jan 2009
-2.8
-3.3
-2.9
-2.3
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-2.1
-1.4
-0.5
0.1
n.a.
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
62.2
62.8
61.9
59.8
56.3
COM Jan 2009
61.9
63.3
64.0
64.2
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
62.9
60.0
57.2
53.3
n.a.
Notes:
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
2 Based on estimated potential growth of 2.3%, 2%, 1.9% and 1.9% respectively in the period 2007-2010.
3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.6% of GDP in 2007, 0.3% of GDP in 2008, 0.3% of GDP in 2009 and 0.1% of GDP in 2010; all deficit-reducing, according to the 2008 stability programme and 0.6% of GDP in 2007, -0.6% of GDP in 2008 and 0.3% of GDP in 2009 in the Commission services' January 2009 interim forecast.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ January 2009 interim forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.




[1] Saskaņā ar Padomes Regulu (EK) Nr. 1466/97 par budžeta stāvokļa uzraudzības un ekonomikas politikas uzraudzības un koordinācijas stiprināšanu dalībvalstīm katru gadu jāiesniedz atjauninātas makroekonomiskās un budžeta prognozes. Šādas atjauninātas prognozes sauc par stabilitātes programmu, ja valstī jau ir ieviests euro, un par konverģences programmu, ja valstī euro vēl nav ieviests. Šo regulu dēvē arī par Stabilitātes un izaugsmes pakta preventīvo daļu.


Side Bar

My account

Manage your searches and email notifications


Help us improve our website