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IP/09/274

Bruselas, 18 de febrero de 2009

La Comisión evalúa los programas de estabilidad o convergencia de Irlanda, Grecia, España, Francia, Letonia y Malta y presenta informes conforme al procedimiento de déficit excesivo

La Comisión Europea ha examinado hoy los programas de estabilidad o convergencia de Irlanda, Grecia, España, Francia, Letonia y Malta[1]. En el contexto de la grave recesión económica actual, se ha estimado que las situaciones presupuestarias se han deteriorado de forma acusada en 2008 y seguirán deteriorándose en 2009 en Irlanda, España, Francia y Letonia. En España y Francia esta tendencia se deriva asimismo de las importantes medidas de reactivación económica adoptadas de conformidad con el Plan Europeo de Recuperación Económica, que pedía la aplicación de medidas presupuestarias oportunas, selectivas y temporales a los Estados miembros con margen de maniobra presupuestario. Irlanda y Malta han tomado una serie de medidas para respaldar la economía integradas en un esfuerzo de saneamiento más amplio, que parece adecuado a la luz de los retos que tienen planteados estos países a nivel macroeconómico y fiscal y en materia de competitividad. Grecia no ha adoptado medidas de estímulo presupuestario, lo que constituye una actitud adecuada dado que su economía aún sigue creciendo y teniendo en cuenta su alto nivel de deuda y sus amplios desequilibrios económicos. Letonia también se ha abstenido de adoptar medidas de estímulo presupuestario a corto plazo en vista de la necesidad de reequilibrar su economía y restaurar la confianza de los inversores. Dado que estos seis países registraron un déficit presupuestario superior al 3% en 2008, la Comisión también ha adoptado hoy sendos informes sobre ellos, de conformidad con el componente preventivo del Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento. En virtud del artículo 104, apartado 3, del Tratado, estos informes analizan las razones del incumplimiento del valor de referencia del 3%, teniendo debidamente en cuenta la situación económica y otros factores pertinentes. La Comisión ha examinado hoy otros 11 programas de estabilidad o de convergencia, pero la situación presupuestaria de los países considerados se mantiene dentro de los límites del Pacto (véase IP/09/273).

En palabras de Joaquín Almunia, Comisario de Asuntos Económicos y Monetarios, «Como consecuencia de la profunda crisis económica y financiera mundial, las finanzas públicas de la UE se ven sometidas a tensiones. La crisis ha provocado una baja de los ingresos tributarios y un aumento de los gastos (por ejemplo, en prestaciones de desempleo). Las finanzas públicas se han deteriorado más en el caso de los numerosos Estados miembros que han adoptado medidas fiscales para apoyar la demanda y la creación de empleo este año, conforme a lo recomendado por la Comisión y el Consejo en el Plan Europeo de Recuperación Económica. La aplicación del Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento revisado facilitará la vuelta a unas finanzas públicas sólidas y sostenibles cuando la recesión llegue a su término y se reanude el crecimiento. Nuestro análisis muestra que las medidas de estímulo presupuestario fueron adoptadas en la UE principalmente por los países con margen de maniobra presupuestario y/o bajo nivel de deuda o de desequilibrios exteriores. Las medidas son generalmente oportunas, selectivas y temporales. Sin embargo, la Comisión ha adoptado hoy informes en el marco del procedimiento de déficit excesivo dirigidos a los países en los que el déficit de las administraciones públicas rebasó el valor de referencia del 3,0% en 2008. En su caso se tiene en cuenta la concurrencia de circunstancias especiales. En todos los demás casos, la Comisión hará pleno uso del margen de flexibilidad autorizado por el Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento revisado para decidir si procede pasar a las etapas siguientes del procedimiento de déficit excesivo en las próximas semanas».

ESPAÑA

España está atravesando un periodo de profunda contracción de la actividad económica como consecuencia de la crisis económica y financiera mundial y de severos ajustes en el sector inmobiliario, que pasa factura a las finanzas públicas y el empleo. Desde el primer semestre de 2008, las autoridades españolas han adoptado varias medidas discrecionales para estimular la actividad económica, de conformidad con el Plan de Recuperación de la UE. Entre ellas cabe citar reducciones temporales y permanentes de impuestos y la realización de proyectos de inversión, equivalentes al 2,25 % del PIB en 2009, así como una serie de reformas estructurales

Tanto los cálculos de la Comisión como el programa de estabilidad enviado por las autoridades españolas a mediados de enero presentan para 2008 una estimación de déficit presupuestario equivalente al 3,4% del PIB, magnitud que no se alcanzaba desde hacía varios años. El programa prevé para el presente año un aumento del déficit, hasta el 5,8%, y, a continuación, una disminución gradual hasta situarse por debajo del 4% en 2011. Sin embargo, el hecho de que las hipótesis macroeconómicas sean optimistas puede implicar que la contribución del crecimiento económico al saneamiento presupuestario sea menor que la prevista en el programa, mientras que la senda de ajuste no se respalda plenamente con medidas concretas, a excepción de la interrupción del paquete de medidas de estímulo presupuestario para 2009. En este contexto, una evaluación detenida de los efectos presupuestarios de las medidas discrecionales será esencial para garantizar la mejora de la situación presupuestaria a medio plazo y de la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas a largo plazo.

Se prevé que la deuda pública, que se había reducido al 36,2% del PIB en 2007, aumente hasta situarse por encima del 50% en 2010.

Partiendo de esta evaluación, la Comisión propone tres recomendaciones a España, consistentes en: i) aplicar las medidas anunciadas para seguir el Plan Europeo de Recuperación Económica, y realizar con determinación el ajuste estructural planeado en 2010 y en años posteriores, respaldándolo con medidas, y reforzando el ritmo de consolidación fiscal si las condiciones cíclicas son mejores de lo previsto ; ii) en vista del actual deterioro fiscal y del impacto previsto del envejecimiento de la población, mejorar la sostenibilidad a largo plazo de las finanzas públicas a través de la puesta en práctica de medidas destinadas a reducir el aumento del gasto derivado del envejecimiento; y (iii) asegurar que las medidas de consolidación fiscal están asimismo destinadas a mejorar la calidad de la finanzas públicas según está previsto en vista del ajuste de la economía requerido para hacer frente a los desequilibrios existentes.

Paralelamente a la evaluación del programa, la Comisión elaboró un informe al amparo del artículo 104, apartado 3, del Tratado, partiendo del incumplimiento en 2008 del valor de referencia del 3% del PIB para el déficit. Mientras que el déficit se mantenía próximo al valor de referencia del 3%, el PIB todavía crecía (a una tasa superior al 1%), de ahí que no pueda considerarse que el déficit sea el resultado de una grave recesión económica. El exceso del déficit por encima del 3% tampoco es de carácter temporal ya que, según el programa de estabilidad, el déficit se mantendrá por encima de dicho nivel hasta 2011.

IRELAND

After more than a decade of strong economic growth, Ireland is now going through a severe recession. The downturn was caused by the financial crisis, the sharp correction in the housing market and the recession in Ireland's main trading partners, the US and the UK. These developments have led to a very sharp deterioration of Ireland's public finances, with the government balance going from a small surplus in 2007 to an estimated deficit of 6.3% of GDP in 2008 and widening to 9.5% in 2009.

The Irish Stability Programme envisages a progressive reduction of the deficit to below the 3% of GDP reference value in 2013, assuming a recovery of economic activity after 2010. The measures adopted by the government can be regarded as welcome and adequate given the high deficit and a sharply increasing debt position (to above the 60% reference value from 2010) and are in line with the European Recovery Plan. But the growth scenario is somewhat optimistic and the consolidation measures presently lack detail. Further risks stem from the measures in place to support the financial sector, in particular bank guarantees and, concerning the debt ratio, the possibility of further capital injections or nationalisations of banks.

In view of the Commission assessment, Ireland is invited to (i) limit the widening of the deficit in 2009 and specify and rigorously implement a substantial broad-based fiscal consolidation program for 2010 and beyond; (ii) in order to limit risks to the adjustment, strengthen the binding nature of the medium-term budgetary framework as well as closely monitor adherence to the budgetary targets throughout the year; (iii) in view of the significant projected increase in age-related expenditure, and also of the increase in debt albeit from a low level expected over the program period, improve the long-term sustainability of public finances by implementing further pension reform measures in addition to pursuing fiscal consolidation.

As the deficit in Ireland reached 6.3% in 2008, thus exceeding the 3% reference value, the Commission also adopted a report under 104.3 of the EU Treaty which lays down an excessive deficit procedure (EDP). This is because while the excess over the reference value can be qualified as exceptional, it is not close to the reference value and it is not temporary. At 40.6% of GDP in 2008, general government gross debt remains below the 60% of GDP reference value but is expected to exceed that value from 2010.

GREECE

Greece has experienced strong economic growth at 4% per year over the current decade. In 2008 its GDP grew well above the euro area average and in 2009 it was still seen in positive territory in the Commission's January forecasts. However, domestic and external macroeconomic imbalances have widened considerably, which has led to very high public and foreign debt. The ongoing global economic and financial crisis is taking its toll on the economy and putting pressure on the debt burden.

The budget deficit exceeded 3% in 2007 and 2008 and, according to the Greek Stability Programme, it will reach 3.7% in 2009 before falling to 3.2% of GDP in 2010 and 2.6% by 2011. Greece has no room for fiscal impulse given its very high debt and current account imbalance. It has not adopted a stimulus package. The consolidation strategy in 2010 and 2011, outlined in the Programme, relies on expenditure restraint and to a lesser extent on increasing tax revenues, but the plans currently lack in detail on concrete measures.

In view of the Commission assessment, Greece is invited to: (i) strengthen substantially the fiscal consolidation path already in 2009, especially if economic conditions turn out better than expected in the programme, through well-specified permanent measures curbing current expenditure, including a prudent public sector wage policy, thereby contributing to necessary reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio; (ii) ensure that fiscal consolidation measures are also geared towards enhancing the quality of public finances, within the framework of a comprehensive reform programme, in the light of the necessary adjustment of the economy, with a view to recovering competitiveness losses and addressing the existing external imbalances; (iii) implement swiftly the policies to reform the tax administration and improve the functioning of the budgetary process by increasing its transparency, spelling out the budgetary strategy within a longer time perspective and set up mechanisms to monitor, control and improve the efficiency of primary current expenditure; (iv) in view of the mounting level of debt and the projected increase in age-related expenditure, improve the long-term sustainability of public finances, by continuing the on-going reforms in the healthcare and pension system.

The deficit exceeded 3% in 2007 and the general government debt stood at 94.8% of GDP that year, according to the data notified by the Greek authorities in October 2008 and validated by Eurostat, confirmed also in the January 2009 update of the Stability Programme. Therefore, the Commission adopted a report under Article 104.3 of the Treaty, which marks the start of the EDP. According to the Commission's January forecast, the deficit net of one-offs attained 3.6% of GDP in 2008 (or 3.4% of GDP including one-offs). The excess over the 3% reference value is not temporary. The excess over the 3% reference value is also not exceptional, as it does not result from a severe economic downturn in the sense of the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact.

FRANCE

The global financial and economic crisis has also significantly reduced economic growth in France in 2008 and the economy is set to contract by a level close to the euro area average in 2009. In response, the French government unveiled in December a recovery plan amounting to 1.3% of GDP, which will increase the deficit by 0.8% of GDP in 2009 and 0.1% of GDP in 2010. The plan can be considered as targeted, timely and temporary and in line with the EU Recovery Plan.

The French budget deficit is estimated to have reached 3.2% in 2008, according to recent government information sent to the Commission and to increase to 4.4% in 2009 before falling to below 3% in 2011, according to the new projections. The higher figures rely on the same macroeconomic scenario as notified at the end of December.

The programme foresees a consolidation of public finances through a restrictive stance, especially in 2010. Risks are linked in particular to the markedly favourable macroeconomic assumptions and the current uncertain environment, but they also reflect the high deficits recorded when economic conditions were more favourable.

In view of the above assessment, France is invited to (i) implement in 2009 the measures in line with the EU Recovery Plan as planned while maintaining the objective of avoiding a further deterioration of public finances; (ii) implement the planned structural adjustment in 2010 and strengthen the pace of budgetary consolidation once the economy recovers, in order to ensure that the deficit is brought rapidly below the reference value thereby setting the debt to GDP ratio on a declining path; (iii) further improve expenditure rules by making them binding to all government tiers, reinforcing their monitoring and enforcement mechanisms and taking additional measures in the context of the General Review of Public Policies. Implement the structural reform programme in particular as regards the sustainability of the pension system.

The Commission has also adopted a report in application of the Stability and Growth Pact for France. This is because, although the deficit in 2008 is likely to have been close to the 3% reference value, it does not result from exceptional circumstances in the sense of the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact, and is not temporary as it is expected to remain above 3% in the following two years.

LATVIA

Latvia is currently in a severe economic downturn following years of above-potential economic growth. The global financial crisis has amplified the shock of the reversal of Latvia's own lending and house price boom by tightening credit availability and conditions, which in turn reinforced the steep decline of domestic demand.

The fiscal targets presented in the Convergence Programme are in line with those in the country's economic stabilisation plan, adopted in December, which foresees tax increases and expenditure cuts and is supported by international financial assistance (€7.5 billion in total of which €3.1 billion from the EU, see IP/09/18). Having exceeded 3% of GDP in 2008, the programme targets general government deficits of around 5% in 2009 and 2010, before falling below 3% in 2011.

In view of the above assessment, the commitments made in the framework of international financial assistance and also given the need to ensure sustainable convergence and a smooth participation in ERM II, Latvia is invited to: (i) submit to Parliament by the end of March 2009 the details of the supplementary budget adopted on 12 December 2008; take further measures if needed to achieve the targeted general government deficit in 2009 and continue the targeted fiscal consolidation thereafter; (ii) rigorously implement public sector nominal wage reductions to facilitate the alignment of whole-economy wages with productivity, thereby improving cost competitiveness; (iii) strengthen fiscal governance and transparency, by improving the medium-term budgetary framework and reinforcing spending controls, and strengthen financial market regulation and supervision; (iv) strengthen the supply side of the economy by wide-ranging structural reforms and by making efficient use of available EU structural funds.

In parallel with its assessment of the programme, the Commission is adopting a report under Article 104.3 of the Treaty. While the deficit is expected to have been close to the reference value in 2008, the excess over the reference value cannot be considered temporary as it would widen in 2009 and remain well above 3% of GDP in 2010. The general government debt, while still below the 60% reference value, is projected on a rapidly growing trend, increasing fourfold from less than 10% in 2007 to 45.4% of GDP in 2010.

MALTA

Against a backdrop of weakening economic growth, the budget deficit is estimated to have reached 3.3% in 2008, according to the Stability Programme submitted early December (3.5% according to the Commission's January forecast). But the programme and the Commission also envisage a return to budgetary consolidation from 2009 onwards. The measures adopted by the government in response to the downturn are in line with the EU Recovery Plan and can be regarded as adequate given the deficit and debt ratios as well as the competitiveness challenge. However, there are risks to the achievement of the deficit and debt targets over the programme period stemming from the favourable macroeconomic scenario, the reliance on volatile revenue, the possibility of expenditure slippages and the lack of information on the consolidation measures in the outer years.

The debt ratio is targeted to fall gradually over the programme period to below the 60% but is subject to the risks mentioned above.

In view of the Commission assessment, Malta is invited to (i) resume fiscal consolidation as envisaged in the programme and ensure that the general government debt ratio is reduced accordingly, by spelling out the measures underlying the planned consolidation in the outer years; (ii) strengthen the medium-term budgetary framework and enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending, including by accelerating the design and implementation of a comprehensive healthcare reform.

As the 2008 deficit is above the reference value, the Commission also adopted a report under the excessive deficit procedure. It concludes that, although the 2008 deficit remains close to the reference value and the planned excess can be considered temporary, the excess cannot be qualified as exceptional within the meaning of the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact as it reflects specific expenditure decisions rather than the impact of the economic downturn. However, on balance the examination of all the relevant factors seems positive.

The country-specific opinions are available at:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/thematic_articles/article13960_en.htm

El Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento y el procedimiento de déficit excesivo

En virtud del Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento, la Comisión debe elaborar un informe cuando el déficit de un Estado miembro rebase el valor de referencia del 3% del PIB. El procedimiento de déficit excesivo se rige por el artículo 104 del Tratado y se desarrolla en el Reglamento (CE) n° 1467/97 del Consejo, que forma parte del Pacto.

Los objetivos presupuestarios presentados en los programas y el dictamen de la Comisión sobre dichos programas no afectarán a los plazos para la corrección de los déficit, que se recomendarán en una fase posterior. Tras ser revisado en 2005, el Pacto permite tener en cuenta la situación económica a la hora de emitir recomendaciones sobre el ritmo de corrección del déficit.

Los informes se dirigen al Comité Económico y Financiero, que formula su propio dictamen en el plazo de dos semanas. Teniendo en cuenta su informe y el dictamen del Comité, la Comisión decide acerca de la posibilidad de recomendar al Consejo la declaración de la existencia de un déficit excesivo (artículo 104, apartados 5 y 6) y el establecimiento de un plazo para su corrección (artículo 104, apartado 7).

IRELAND

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Real GDP
(% change)
SP Jan 2009
6.0
-1.4
-4.0
-0.9
2.3
3.4
3.0
COM Jan 2009
6.0
-2.0
-5.0
0.0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
4.8
3.0
3.5
4.1
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
HICP inflation
(%)
SP Jan 2009
2.8
3.1
0.5
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.8
COM Jan 2009
2.9
3.1
0.7
1.8
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.8
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
SP Jan 2009
4.4
0.5
-3.5
-4.1
-3.4
-1.6
-0.5
COM Jan 20093
4.4
0.1
-4.5
-4.2
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-0.5
-1.3
-1.5
-0.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-5.4
-6.3
-4.2
-3.5
-3.4
-3.0
-2.8
COM Jan 2009
-5.4
-5.7
-3.3
-3.2
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-4.4
-3.9
-3.5
-3.1
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
35.7
33.6
33.7
34.4
34.6
33.9
34.4
COM Jan 2009
35.7
33.7
33.7
33.9
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
36.6
36.1
35.8
35.4
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
35.4
39.9
43.3
43.4
41.0
38.7
37.0
COM Jan 2009
35.4
40.0
44.7
46.9
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
36.1
37.0
36.9
36.5
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
General government balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 20092
0.2
-6.3
-9.5
-9.0
-6.4
-4.8
-2.6
COM Jan 2009
0.2
-6.3
-11.0
-13.0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
0.5
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
1.2
-5.2
-7.3
-6.4
-3.5
-1.7
0.7
COM Jan 2009
1.2
-5.2
-8.7
-10.3
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
1.4
0.0
-0.1
0.0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-1.5
-6.5
-8.1
-7.4
-5.0
-4.1
-2.4
COM Jan 2009
-1.5
-6.3
-9.1
-11.3
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
0.7
-0.4
-0.5
-0.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Structural balance4
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-1.7
-6.2
-8.1
-7.4
-5.0
-4.1
-2.4
COM Jan 2009
-1.5
-6.3
-9.4
-11.3
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
0.5
-0.4
-0.5
-0.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
24.8
40.6
52.7
62.3
65.7
66.2
64.5
COM Jan 2009
24.8
40.8
54.8
68.2
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
25.1
25.9
27.6
28.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

Notes:
 
1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
 
2 The targets for the general government balance include as yet unspecified additional annual consolidation measures of 2¼% of GDP in 2010, 2% in 2011, 1¾% in 2012, and 1½% in 2013. The additional consolidation measures for 2009 (1% of GDP) are in the process of being specified.

3 Based on estimated potential growth of 4.0%, 2.2%, -0.4% and -0.4% respectively in the period 2007-2010.
 
4 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.3% of GDP in 2008 (deficit-increasing) according to the most recent programme and 0.3% in 2009 (deficit-reducing) according to the Commission services' January interim forecast.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source:
 
Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ January 2009 interim forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.
 

GREECE

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP
(% change)
SP Jan 2009
4.0
3.0
1.1
1.6
2.3
COM Jan 2009
4.0
2.9
0.2
0.7
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
n.a.
HICP inflation
(%)
SP Jan 2009
3.0
4.3
2.6
2.5
2.4
COM Jan 2009
3.0
4.3
2.5
2.7
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
n.a.
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
SP Jan 2009
2.2
1.9
0.3
-0.8
-1.0
COM Jan 20092
3.0
2.8
0.5
-1.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
1.3
1.2
1.2
n.a.
n.a.
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-12.1
-12.8
-11.4
-10.8
-10.0
COM Jan 2009
-12.1
-11.7
-11.2
-11.6
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-12.8
-12.7
-12.5
-12.2
n.a.
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
39.9
40.0
41.0
41.1
41.2
COM Jan 2009
40.0
39.9
40.8
40.0
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
39.9
41.1
41.7
42.3
n.a.
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
43.4
43.7
44.7
44.3
43.8
COM Jan 2009
43.4
43.4
44.5
44.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
42.6
42.7
42.5
42.3
n.a.
General government balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-3.5
-3.7
-3.7
-3.2
-2.6
COM Jan 2009
-3.5
-3.4
-3.7
-4.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-2.7
-1.6
-0.8
0.0
n.a.
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
0.6
0.3
0.8
1.2
1.7
COM Jan 2009
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.0
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
1.2
2.4
3.1
3.8
n.a.
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-4.4
-4.5
-3.8
-2.8
-2.2
COM Jan 2009
-4.8
-4.7
-3.9
-3.7
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-3.4
-2.4
-2.3
n.a.
n.a.
Structural balance3
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-4.4
-4.5
-4.3
-2.8
-2.2
COM Jan 2009
-4.6
-5.0
-4.7
-3.7
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-3.1
-2.4
-2.3
n.a.
n.a.
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
94.8
94.6
96.3
96.1
94.7
COM Jan 2009
94.8
94.0
96.2
98.4
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
93.4
91.0
87.3
82.9
n.a.

Notes:
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
2 Based on estimated potential growth of 3.2%, 2.7%, 2.8% and 2.5% respectively in the period 2008-2011.
3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.4% of GDP in 2008 and 0.5% in 2009 (all deficit-reducing) according to the most recent programme and 0.4% of GDP in 2008 and 0.8% in 2009 (all deficit-reducing) in the Commission services' January interim forecast.
Source:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ January 2009 interim forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

SPAIN

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP
(% change)
SP Jan 2009
3.7
1.2
-1.6
1.2
2.6
COM Jan 2009
3.7
1.2
-2.0
-0.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
3.8
3.1
3.0
3.2
n.a
HICP inflation
(%)
SP Jan 2009
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
COM Jan 2009
2.8
4.1
0.6
2.4
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
2.7
3.3
2.7
2.8
n.a
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
SP Jan 2009
1.4
0.3
-2.6
-3.2
-2.7
COM Jan 20092
1.5
0.8
-2.3
-3.4
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-0.9
-1.4
-1.9
-1.6
n.a
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
-9.7
-9.2
-6.6
-5.8
-5.4
COM Jan 2009
-9.7
-9.0
-6.7
-6.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
-9.0
-8.9
-8.8
-8.7
n.a
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
41.0
37.0
37.5
38.3
38.7
COM Jan 2009
41.0
36.8
36.4
36.9
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
40.800
40.4
40.4
40.3
n.a
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
38.8
40.4
43.3
43.1
42.6
COM Jan 2009
38.8
40.2
42.6
42.5
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
39.0
39.2
39.2
39.1
n.a
General government balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
2.2
-3.4
-5.8
-4.8
-3.9
COM Jan 2009
2.2
-3.4
-6.2
-5.7
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
1.8
1.2
1.2
1.2
n.a
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
3.8
-1.9
-4.1
-2.9
-1.9
COM Jan 2009
3.8
-1.8
-4.6
-4.0
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
3.4
2.7
2.6
2.6
n.a
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
1.6
-3.5
-4.7
-3.4
-2.8
COM Jan 2009
1.6
-3.7
-5.2
-4.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.9
n.a
Structural balance3 4
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
1.6
-3.5
-4.7
-3.4
-2.8
COM Jan 2009
1.6
-3.3
-4.6
-4.2
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.9
n.a
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
SP Jan 2009
36.2
39.5
47.3
51.6
53.7
COM Jan 2009
36.2
39.8
46.9
53.0
n.a.
SP Dec 2007
36.2
34.0
32.0
30.0
n.a

Notes:
 
 
 
 
 
 
1Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
2Based on estimated potential growth of 3.0%, 1.8%, 1.0% and 0.9% respectively in the period 2007-2010.
3Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. No one-offs are included in the most recent programme. One-off and other temporary measures are below ½% of GDP in 2008 and above ½% in 2009, all deficit-reducing, are included in the Commission services' January 2009 interim forecast.
4Using the recalculated cyclically-adjusted balance, based on the information in the programme, and the definition of one-offs and other temporary measures applied by the Commission services, the structural balance would be - 3.1% of GDP in 2008, -4.1 in 2009, and -3.4 in 2010.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ January 2009 interim forecast (COM); Commission services’ calculations

FRANCE

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Real GDP
(% change)
SP Dec 2008
2.2
1.0
0.2-0.5
2.0
2.5
2.5
COM Jan 2009
2.2
0.7
-1.8
0.4
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
2-2.5
2-2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
HICP inflation
(%)
SP Dec 2008
1.6
3.3
1.5
COM Jan 2009
1.6
3.2
0.8
1.5
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
1.4
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
SP Dec 2008
0.4
-0.6
-1.8
-1.6
-1.1
-0.4
COM Jan 20092
1.8
1.0
-1.7
-2.3
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-0.8
-0.8
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
0.0
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-2.8
-3.4
-2.6
-2.5
-2.4
-2.4
COM Jan 2009
-2.8
-3.8
-4.0
-3.9
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-2.3
-2.5
-2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2.0
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
49.7
49.8
49.6
50.0
50.0
50.2
COM Jan 2009
49.7
49.6
49.4
49.9
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
50.7
50.4
50.1
50.0
50.0
50.0
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
52.4
52.7
53.5
52.7
52.0
51.3
COM Jan 2009
52.4
52.7
54.9
54.9
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
53.2
52.6
51.9
51.2
50.6
49.9
General government balance
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-2.7
-2.9
-3.9
-2.7
-1.9
-1.1
p.m. MoF4
-2.7
-3.2
-4.4
-3.1
-2.3
-1.5
COM Jan 2009
-2.7
-3.2
-5.4
-5.0
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-2.4
-2.3
-1.7
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
0.1
0.0
-1.1
0.1
0.9
1.7
COM Jan 2009
0.1
-0.3
-2.6
-2.1
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
0.2
0.5
0.9
1.4
2.0
2.5
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-2.9
-2.6
-3.0
-1.9
-1.4
-0.9
COM Jan 2009
-3.5
-3.7
-4.6
-3.8
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-2.0
-1.9
-1.4
-1.0
-0.4
0.0
Structural balance3
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-2.9
-2.6
-3.0
-1.9
-1.4
-0.9
COM Jan 2009
-3.6
-3.8
-4.6
-3.8
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
-2.0
-1.9
-1.4
-1.0
-0.4
0.0
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
63.9
66.7
69.1
69.4
68.5
66.8
COM Jan 2009
63.9
67.1
72.4
76.0
n.a.
n.a.
SP Nov 2007
64.2
64.0
63.2
61.9
60.2
57.9

Notes:
1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
2 Based on estimated potential growth of 1.6%, 1.4%, 0.9% and 1.0% respectively in the period 2007-2010.
3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0 all over the period covered (2007-2012) according to the most recent programme and are 0.1% of GDP in 2007, 0.1% in 2008, all deficit-reducing and 0 in 2009 and 2010 according to the Commission services' January 2009 interim forecast.
4 On 20 January 2009 the French Minister of Budget, Mr Woerth, announced at the National Assembly that public deficits for the period 2008 - 2012 would be higher than projected in the updated stability programme. He has also stated that this estimate was not final, as data from local authorities was not complete yet. The French statistical office (INSEE) will publish the precise figures at the end of March.
Source:
Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ January 2009 Interim forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations

LATVIA

Comparison of key macro economic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP
(% change)
CP Jan 2009
10.3
-2.0
-5.0
-3.0
1.5
COM Jan 2009
10.3
-2.3
-6.9
-2.4
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
10.5
7.5
7.0
6.8
n.a.
HICP inflation
(%)
CP Jan 2009
10.1
15.4
5.9
2.2
1.3
COM Jan 2009
10.1
15.3
6.8
2.4
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
10.1
12.5
7.2
4.9
n.a.
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
CP Jan 2009
12.2
5.9
-1.6
-5.7
-5.3
COM Jan 20092
13.2
7.0
-1.8
-4.7
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
2.8
1.3
-0.3
-1.7
n.a.
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
-21.8
-13.4
-5.4
-2.6
-2.3
COM Jan 2009
-20.8
-13.0
-4.6
-3.4
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-23.5
-20.3
-18.3
-16.4
n.a.
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
37.7
35.1
32.5
35.0
37.7
COM Jan 2009
37.6
36.0
34.1
34.7
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
37.3
37.4
37.7
37.9
n.a.
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
37.7
38.6
37.7
39.9
40.7
COM Jan 2009
37.6
39.5
40.4
42.1
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
37.0
36.8
36.7
36.7
n.a.
General government balance
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
0.1
-3.5
-5.3
-4.9
-2.9
COM Jan 2009
0.1
-3.5
-6.3
-7.4
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
0.3
0.7
1.0
1.2
n.a.
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
0.5
-2.9
-3.7
-3.5
-1.4
COM Jan 2009
0.6
-2.9
-5.1
-5.5
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
0.7
1.0
1.2
1.5
n.a.
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
-3.3
-5.1
-4.9
-3.3
-1.4
COM Jan 2009
-3.6
-5.4
-5.8
-6.1
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-0.5
0.4
1.1
1.7
n.a.
Structural balance3
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
-3.3
-5.1
-4.9
-3.3
-1.4
COM Jan 2009
-3.6
-5.4
-5.8
-6.1
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-0.5
0.4
1.1
1.7
n.a.
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
CP Jan 2009
9.5
19.4
32.4
45.4
47.3
COM Jan 2009
9.5
16.0
30.4
42.9
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
9.4
8.3
7.2
6.4
n.a.

Notes:
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
2 Based on estimated potential growth of 5.5%, 3.4%, 1.4% and 0.5% respectively in the period 2007-2010.
3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. There are no one-off and other temporary measures in the most recent programme or in the Commission services' January interim forecast.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Convergence programme (CP); Commission services’ January 2009 interim forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.

MALTA

Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections

 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP
(% change)
SP Dec 2008
3.7
2.8
2.2
2.5
2.8
COM Jan 2009
3.9
2.1
0.7
1.3
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
3.5
3.1
3.2
3.4
n.a.
HICP inflation
(%)
SP Dec 2008
0.7
4.5
2.7
2.3
2.0
COM Jan 2009
0.7
4.6
1.9
2.2
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
0.9
2.5
2.3
2.1
n.a.
Output gap1
(% of potential GDP)
SP Dec 2008
0.0
0.1
-0.3
-0.5
0.5
COM Jan 20092
1.1
1.2
0.0
-0.6
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-0.8
-0.1
0.5
1.9
n.a.
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-5.5
-5.1
-3.1
-2.7
0.7
COM Jan 2009
-4.6
-5.5
-5.5
-5.3
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-0.5
0.2
3.2
5.5
n.a.
General government revenue
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
40.6
40.6
41.7
41.8
41.9
COM Jan 2009
40.4
40.7
41.1
41.2
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
41.0
40.9
39.9
39.5
n.a.
General government expenditure
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
42.4
43.9
43.2
42.1
40.7
COM Jan 2009
42.2
44.2
43.7
43.8
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
42.7
42.2
40.0
38.5
n.a.
General government balance
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-1.8
-3.3
-1.5
-0.3
1.2
COM Jan 2009
-1.8
-3.5
-2.6
-2.5
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-1.6
-1.2
-0.1
0.9
n.a.
Primary balance
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
1.6
0.0
1.9
3.0
4.3
COM Jan 2009
1.6
-0.2
0.8
0.8
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
1.7
2.0
2.9
3.8
n.a.
Cyclically-adjusted balance1
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-1.8
-3.4
-1.4
-0.1
1.0
COM Jan 2009
-2.2
-4.0
-2.6
-2.3
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-1.3
-1.2
-0.3
0.3
n.a.
Structural balance3
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
-2.4
-3.7
-1.7
-0.2
0.9
COM Jan 2009
-2.8
-3.3
-2.9
-2.3
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
-2.1
-1.4
-0.5
0.1
n.a.
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
SP Dec 2008
62.2
62.8
61.9
59.8
56.3
COM Jan 2009
61.9
63.3
64.0
64.2
n.a.
CP Nov 2007
62.9
60.0
57.2
53.3
n.a.

Notes:
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes.
2 Based on estimated potential growth of 2.3%, 2%, 1.9% and 1.9% respectively in the period 2007-2010.
3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.6% of GDP in 2007, 0.3% of GDP in 2008, 0.3% of GDP in 2009 and 0.1% of GDP in 2010; all deficit-reducing, according to the 2008 stability programme and 0.6% of GDP in 2007, -0.6% of GDP in 2008 and 0.3% of GDP in 2009 in the Commission services' January 2009 interim forecast.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Stability programme (SP); Commission services’ January 2009 interim forecasts (COM); Commission services’ calculations.


[1] En virtud del Reglamento Reglamento (CE) n° 1466/97 del Consejo relativo al reforzamiento de la supervisión de las situaciones presupuestarias y a la supervisión y coordinación de las políticas económicas, los Estados miembros deben presentar cada año actualizaciones de sus previsiones macroeconómicas y presupuestarias. Dichas actualizaciones se denominan programas de estabilidad en el caso de los países que han adoptado el euro, y programas de convergencia en el caso de los que aún no lo han hecho. Este Reglamento constituye el «componente preventivo» del Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento.


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