July 2009: Business Climate Indicator continues to recover
European Commission - IP/09/1207 30/07/2009
Brussels, 30 July 2009
The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area increased again in July. However, the level is still very low, even when compared to the previous historical lows of 1993. This suggests that year-on-year industrial production growth will have been negative in June and will remain subdued in July.
The rise in the BCI reflects an overall easing. In particular, both order books and export order books finally showed some signs of improving. Managers' production expectations and their perception of the production trend observed in recent months picked up for the fourth month in a row. Their opinion of stocks of finished goods improved as well, even though the level of stocks was still considered excessive .
The BCI is based on a factor analysis of the euro area aggregate balances (seasonally adjusted) of five of the monthly questions in the industry survey (only employment and selling-price expectations are excluded).
Full details of the Business Climate Indicator are available on the Europa website:
The next BCI Resu lts are due to be published on 28 August 2009.